West 2nd-round preview: 1 thing to watch in each series

Each of the West's top-four teams won their first-round series in six games or less, setting up what should be a scintillating conference semifinal. Unlike the Eastern Conference semis, which are already derailed thanks to injuries to multiple All-Stars, the West's best squads are heading into May at full strength.

With four wins separating these four sides from the conference finals, here's something to consider in each series:

1. Suns vs. 4. Mavericks

Can Dallas' shooting keep them in it?

The Mavs were a 3-point happy team that fell victim to some bad shooting luck early in the season, but they were rewarded for continuing to let it fly and benefitted from some regression to the mean as the year played out. That carried over into Dallas' first-round series against Utah, where the Mavs doubled down on their approach.

The Mavs connected on 37.1% of their long-range tries while hoisting an astounding 41.8 3-point attempts per game against the Jazz. More than half (51.8%) of the team's first-round shot attempts came from behind the arc, and Dallas finished the six-game series having attempted 72 more triples than a Utah team that finished the regular season No. 1 in 3-point attempt rate. The Mavs outscored Utah from behind the arc by a count of 279-147.

It's fair to point out that Phoenix's defense - which was 10th in the league in limiting 3-point attempts and fourth when it came to limiting corner threes - won't be as easy to manipulate as Utah's was. The Suns will provide much more resistance at the point of attack, have good options (Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder) to keep Luka Doncic from consistently bending their defense in a way that would lead to open shooters, and have more mobile bigs in case they do need to put fires out on the perimeter.

But it's also worth noting that despite having capable shooters, the Suns themselves are one of the most 3-point averse clubs in the league. That's not a knock on the NBA's fourth-ranked offense, as between Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and Deandre Ayton, Phoenix is nearly impossible to stop inside the arc. But it does present a path for the underdog Mavs to hang around in this series if shooting luck is on Dallas' side.

If the Mavs stay committed to firing away from deep and the shooting gods smile upon them, Dallas can at least hang around long enough for Doncic to carry them home while the Suns pile up 2-pointers. That's a big ask, though.

Prediction: Suns in 5

2. Grizzlies vs. 3. Warriors

Can Memphis make Golden State pay for its lack of size?

Whether you call them PTSD, the Super Splash Bros., or simply the new Death Lineup, it's no secret that the Warriors' best quintet is the combination of Steph Curry, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green. With Curry returning to the starting lineup for Golden State's series-clinching Game 5 win against the Nuggets, that devastating combination will finally start together.

That lineup asks a lot of Green on the defensive end, but the Warriors' offensive potential with those five players on the court together is devastating. Case in point, although the team's best lineup bled points at a rate equivalent to the worst defense of all time during that first-round triumph over Denver (119.8 points allowed per 100 possessions), the Warriors also torched the Nuggets to the preposterous tune of 141.2 points per 100 possessions in the 39 minutes Curry, Poole, Thompson, Wiggins, and Green logged together.

One of the few first-round lineups to actually out-perform Golden State's best belonged to Memphis, and it could offer a glimpse into one of the ways the young Grizzlies can hang with the mighty (yet lower-seeded) Warriors.

Just as the Grizzlies did when they led the league in offensive rebounding (33.8% OReb rate) during the regular season, Memphis hit the glass hard to create multiple-shot possessions against the Timberwolves. The team's most-used lineup (Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson, Brandon Clarke) rebounded 35.3% of its missed shots against Minnesota.

Steven Adams may have gotten played off the court early in the series (again), but between Jackson and Clarke, Memphis is an absolute load inside and on the glass. That duo attacking Green shouldn't necessarily concern the Warriors, as Draymond's defensive brilliance can overcome any physical mismatch, but the havoc Jackson, Clarke, and the crashing Grizzlies can wreak on the glass against the Dubs should concern them.

During the first round, Golden State collected less than 66% of available defensive rebounds (league average is 76.8%) against a Nuggets side that finished 19th in offensive rebound rate. Going up against the Grizzlies - and potentially going smaller for longer periods as Curry continues to find his legs after recovering from an ankle injury - should only exacerbate that deficiency.

There are a few determining factors that will all go a long way in deciding this series: Whether the foul-happy Jackson can stay on the floor, how well the star guards on both sides can attack each other's shoddy perimeter defense, and how the smaller Warriors choose to match up overall. But Memphis destroying the offensive glass in a way that would force Steve Kerr to shy away from his best lineup is the first thing to monitor.

Prediction: Warriors in 6

Joseph Casciaro is a senior writer for theScore.