NBA playoff preview: 1 thing to watch in every East 1st-round series
Much was made of the strongest Eastern Conference in a quarter century, but with all due respect to the top teams, the East's strength this season was found in its depth. No East team won more than 53 games, while the first-place Heat and 10th-place Hawks were separated by only 10 games.
Not only could that mean a fantastic postseason, but also an unusually competitive first round. Here are the keys to watch in each of the East's four quarterfinal matchups.
Heat (1) vs. Hawks (8)
Can Okongwu give the Hawks a defensive identity?
The severity of the knee injury that kept starting center Clint Capela out of the second half against Cleveland on Friday has yet to be determined. However, even if Capela is in the lineup for Game 1, you'd have to expect the big man won't be 100%. As solid as Capela has been for the Hawks, there could be a silver lining if sophomore center Onyeka Okongwu ends up logging more time.
Atlanta failed to replicate its 2021 playoff success during the regular season this year thanks in large part to its defensive deficiencies; after piecing together a middle of the pack (18th-ranked) defense last year - no small feat when Trae Young is at the point of attack - the Hawks slipped to 26th in defensive efficiency (113.7 defensive rating). Capela failing to replicate his incredible defensive performance from last season played a part in that slide.
With Okongwu on the court, the Hawks defended at a top-seven rate (109.0 D rating) this season. And in 312 minutes with Okongwu and De'Andre Hunter on the court, Atlanta defended slightly better (106.7) than the third-ranked Suns.
The Heat's offensive issues might be overblown, but their half-court inconsistencies are the one thing holding them back from full-blown contention. If they run into a suddenly competent Hawks squad on the defensive end, this could get much more interesting than the typical No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchup. Young's offensive wizardry has already proven enough to give the Hawks a chance in any playoff game.
Prediction: Heat in six
Celtics (2) vs. Nets (7)
Can the high-powered Nets defend?
Kyrie Irving facing the Celtics (and all the history therein), Ben Simmons' status, and the absence of Defensive Player of the Year candidate Robert Williams are sure to be talking points as this series unfolds. But this matchup will likely be decided by the Nets' defensive play.
Brooklyn is an obviously dangerous team that can reach a different level of play with both Irving and Kevin Durant in the lineup, but all the star talent in the world can't make up for a defense that consistently bleeds points.
The Nets' 112.3 defensive rating ranks ahead of only the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks among playoff teams, and in 1,092 minutes with Irving on the court this season, they allowed 113.8 points per 100 possessions.
The team managed to overcome that putrid defense with Irving on the floor by scoring at a historic rate on the other end. Brooklyn's offensive rating of 118.9 points per 100 possessions with Irving on the court would measure out as the most efficient offense of all time.
That's not a sustainable formula against a team like Boston, though.
The Celtics finished the season with the league's stingiest defense, but head coach Ime Udoka's team also grew into a more cohesive and efficient offensive unit as the campaign wore on. Boston finished ninth in offense, but only the Minnesota Timberwolves were better on that side of the floor after the calendar flipped to 2022.
Jayson Tatum has taken another leap toward full superstardom, and he and Jaylen Brown are learning how to play off each other in a more suitable manner. The Celtics have been moving the ball more, operating with ruthless efficiency down the stretch.
The last of four regular-season matchups between Brooklyn and Boston was a perfect example of why the Nets can't simply rest on their offensive laurels. In 28 minutes with Durant and Irving both on the court, Brooklyn posted a sublime offensive rating of 122.6. But the Celtics scored at a torrid rate equivalent to 132.2 points per 100 possessions and won the game.
Having said all that, Irving has dialed up his defensive intensity in postseasons past, Durant can be a defensive terror as both an on-ball threat and a helper, and role players such as Bruce Brown and Nic Claxton help elevate the team's defensive floor. A Simmons return would significantly raise the ceiling.
Prediction: Nets in six
Bucks (3) vs. Bulls (6)
Can the Bulls beat the math?
The Bulls went 2-21 against the eight teams that finished with 50 wins or more, with four losses in as many matchups against the division-rival Bucks. Whether Chicago - which lost 15 of its final 22 contests - can even win a game in this series is a question worth asking. It also remains to be seen whether DeMar DeRozan's refined game is more playoff-proof and whether Milwaukee can continue to rediscover its championship-level defense with Brook Lopez back in the lineup.
The determining factor, however, is whether the Bulls can address their glaring math problem.
Among the 20 teams that made the playoffs or qualified for the play-in tournament, the Bulls ranked 19th in 3-point differential. They allowed 1.1 more made 3-pointers per game than they sank at the other end. The issue only worsened once Chicago lost Lonzo Ball in mid-January: Over the final three months of the season, that number doubled to 2.2.
That may not sound like much, but losing the 3-point battle by more than six points per game is absolutely debilitating, especially against top teams like Milwaukee, which already owns several other advantages over the Bulls. The Bucks also made more threes than any other Eastern Conference team this season.
Nothing about this matchup is coming up Chicago.
Prediction: Bucks in four
76ers (4) vs. Raptors (5)
Can James Harden be the difference-maker?
The Raptors have frustrated Joel Embiid for years now under head coach Nick Nurse, and there are plenty of reasons to believe Toronto has the goods to challenge the higher-seeded 76ers. But the component of this series to watch, and the one that could very well decide it, is how Harden fares.
Simply put, if the Beard isn't the second-best player in this series behind MVP candidate Embiid, Philadelphia is in trouble.
Whether due to health, age, indifference, or some combination thereof, Harden has struggled to consistently create space for himself this season. His first step and lift are clearly lacking. Against the Raptors - who employ a revolving door of similarly built defenders waiting to victimize opposing shot-creators and offensive initiators - those deficiencies are magnified.
Harden likes to hunt mismatches in the pick-and-roll to create advantages for himself and his teammates. But against Toronto's length and versatility, no screen-related switch will bring him the mismatch he craves with the ball in his hands. Even the players Nurse will deploy against Embiid - Precious Achiuwa, Pascal Siakam, and OG Anunoby - are more than capable of deterring Harden at the point of attack on a switch.
Those factors help explain why Harden looked like a shell of himself in two games against the Raptors after joining the 76ers in February.
Even more concerning is that those performances against Toronto came with both Anunoby and Fred VanVleet - perhaps the Raptors' two best perimeter defenders - sitting on the sidelines.
Philadelphia has the better team, the best player in the series, and home-court advantage. Harden playing like the Beard of old would give the 76ers enough to overwhelm the Raptors. But given the way this matchup has shaped up, expecting the old Harden to suddenly reappear against the team best equipped to contain him seems like wishful thinking.
The Sixers survive - but by the skin of their teeth.
Prediction: 76ers in seven
Joseph Casciaro is a senior writer for theScore.