NBA Tuesday best bets: Can Warriors snap Suns' 16-game winning streak?
We got back to our winning ways with a 2-1 record against the spread on Monday's NBA picks. Here are our best bets for a thinned Tuesday slate:
All good things must come to an end, and the Suns' 16-game winning streak is nearing its expiration date. Saturday's victory over the Nets was more impressive than the final score might suggest, but it still marked Phoenix's sixth win by eight or fewer points in its last eight contests - a stark contrast from the front end of this team's streak, when it exceeded that margin in six of its first eight wins.
The Suns have gone 10-6 ATS across their 16-game run, which pales in comparison to the Warriors' 13-2 ATS mark over the same period. In fact, Golden State has boasted a higher scoring margin (+16.5) than Phoenix (+11.6) since the Suns' streak began and won its only underdog spot by 18 points in a road victory at Brooklyn.
The Suns could certainly prove to be the better team Tuesday, but the Warriors have been the better team all year and should be priced closer to even money here. Don't let the hype of the winning streak distract from a clear value spot.
Pick: Warriors +2.5
If you want an example of how bias can affect value in the betting market, look no further than the Lakers, who always seem to get the benefit of the doubt on name and expectations alone. How else can you explain Los Angeles being favored to win this game after what it's shown on the court?
The Lakers own the NBA's worst ATS record (7-15) and are a dreadful 3-11 ATS as favorites, but they're still being priced as road chalk against the Kings, who have actually been the better team on a per-possession basis. LeBron James' return hasn't helped matters - in his five starts since returning from injury, this team is 3-2 straight up / 1-4 ATS with two narrow wins over the Pistons and an overtime win against the Pacers.
It's only been four days since these two sides battled through three overtimes before Sacramento won by four. These teams played like equals for more than 60 minutes in that matchup, which makes it an even easier call to take the points in the rematch.
Pick: Kings +4
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