NBA weekend betting preview: Back Nuggets, Gordon against former team
We're heading into the final month of the NBA season, which means there are just a few weeks left to take advantage of suspect lines in the regular season before the postseason rolls around.
Here are a few of my favorite plays this weekend:
Timberwolves @ Grizzlies (-6.5, 231)
April 2, 8 p.m. ET
Beware the Grizzlies, which own the NBA's third-best record against the spread after a 6-1 ATS run that included two narrow losses to the Jazz and outright wins over the Warriors, Celtics, Thunder, and Rockets.
Ja Morant's outstanding play has particularly sparked this recent run, with the young guard averaging 20.9 points and 7.7 assists with just 2.7 turnovers across that seven-game stretch. Morant dropped 30 points on Utah's stellar defense twice and should have no trouble slicing through the Timberwolves' 27th-ranked unit.
Memphis is also 16-5 ATS as favorites, while Minnesota has dropped 11 of its last 17 ATS as an underdog. Don't expect this contest to be close.
Pick: Grizzlies -6.5
Bucks (-2.5, 238) @ Trail Blazers
April 2, 10 p.m.
What's going on with the Bucks? Milwaukee has lost six of its last eight ATS and is mired in a longer 8-15 ATS run, during which the team's outscored opponents by just 2.35 points per game. Some of those struggles could be resulting from on-court chemistry issues as the team integrates P.J. Tucker and a now-healthy Jrue Holiday into the fold ahead of a pivotal postseason for this group.
The Trail Blazers are also working with a new lineup, but their results have been more promising. New addition Norman Powell has fit in seamlessly, scoring 22 points in his Portland debut while averaging 2.0 steals and 2.3 made threes as the ideal complement to Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum.
The Blazers haven't been as good at home as they usually are, but the Bucks are a brutal 2-7 ATS in their last nine away games and need to work through some continuity issues before laying the points in a tough road spot.
Pick: Trail Blazers +2.5
Cavaliers @ Heat (N/A)
April 3, 8 p.m.
It wasn't exactly a debut to remember, but Victor Oladipo (6 points) still teased enough upside to get excited about his fit within the Heat's rotation. The former All-NBA star had five assists and two steals in 23 minutes, giving Miami another tenacious defender on the wing and a much-needed secondary playmaker to open up its offense.
Both will be incredibly advantageous against the Cavaliers, who turn the ball over an NBA-worst 15.8% of the time and own the NBA's sixth-worst defensive rating (114.5) during an extended 10-20 ATS run. The Heat are more talented, more disciplined, and should have no trouble controlling this one.
Pick: Heat (-8.5 or better)
Magic @ Nuggets (N/A)
April 4, 10 p.m.
It turns out that Aaron Gordon was exactly what the Nuggets needed to reach another level. Denver was already a potent offensive group, but Gordon's ability to switch on the perimeter has immediately transformed the Nuggets' previously mediocre defense into one of the league's best.
The team is 4-0 ATS since trading for the former Magic wing and has won by a combined 40 points in the three games in which he's played. Meanwhile, Orlando has put together its own 5-0 ATS run, but facing this Nuggets squad on the second leg of a back-to-back doesn't sound like a recipe for success. Expect Gordon and his new teammates to save a little extra for this one.
Pick: Nuggets (-10 or better)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.