NBA: Fade these 5 teams during the restart
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
Knowing which teams to bet is obviously useful. Knowing which teams not to bet can be just as helpful.
Yesterday, we listed five teams bettors should buy for next week's NBA restart. Today, we'll rip off a few you should avoid.
Here are five teams that will lose you money down the stretch.
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets are an obvious fade, considering a handful of key players won't suit up in Orlando. In their first tune-up scrimmage this week, the Nets were unsurprisingly pummeled by 31 points against the Pelicans.
Brooklyn's crux this season has been scoring - the unit's 107.8 offensive rating is the second-worst clip among bubble teams. A layoff coupled with an essentially brand-new roster isn't the recipe to fix that. Steer clear of the Nets.
Phoenix Suns
The Suns are candidates for positive regression. They're 26-39 but should be 29-36 based on point differential. Still, I don't like this scenario for Phoenix.
The Suns' 45.3% cover rate is one of the worst in the bubble. Now you're asking a team that's six games out of a playoff spot to right the ship over an eight-game seeding phase? I don't buy it.
Phoenix has the restart's sixth-toughest schedule and faces four teams that rank top seven in offensive rating. This is a hard pass.
Denver Nuggets
There aren't many bubble teams with as much optimism around them as the Nuggets. Nikola Jokic shed some weight, rookie Bol Bol recently had the scrimmage of his life, and Denver's height could be a problem in the postseason.
That's all fine and dandy, but it's not enough to sway me.
The Nuggets were one of the regular season's biggest overachievers, winning 43 games despite playing like a 40-win team.
They also have one of the toughest seeding slates, with games against the Lakers, Clippers, Raptors, Jazz, Thunder, and Heat.
Orlando Magic
The hometown Magic might be a popular bet, but why? Because they're "familiar" with the area? Location or comfort shouldn't hold much weight; all 22 teams have been on the same routine for some time now, and Orlando won't have an ounce of support in an empty arena.
The Magic haven't been profitable this season - they're 31-32-2 against the spread (49.2%) - nor will they be during the restart. They're hardly in panic mode with a comfortable 5.5-game hold on the Eastern Conference's No. 8 seed.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have arguably been the biggest surprise of the season. They were the first team to cash their 2019-20 win total and they lead the NBA in cover rate (40-24).
For a team that relied so heavily on chemistry this season, cashing 62% of games against the spread likely isn't sustainable. With tilts against both Los Angeles squads, Miami, Utah, and Denver, the Thunder aren't a team I'm rushing to bet.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.