4 biggest storylines ahead of UFC 309

UFC 309 - and Jon Jones' first heavyweight title defense - is upon us.

Jones returns to the Octagon in Saturday's main event to defend his belt against Stipe Miocic, a former two-time champ and the greatest heavyweight in UFC history. In the co-headliner, Michael Chandler comes back from a two-year layoff to square off with former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira in a rematch.

Here are four key storylines ahead of the UFC's annual event at Madison Square Garden in New York.

How will Jones and Miocic look after long layoffs?

It's been 20 months since Jones' last fight and 44 months since Miocic's last fight.

It's been a while.

Naturally, one of the biggest questions going into this matchup is how both men will look. Let's start with Jones. Perhaps the biggest cause for concern for the heavyweight champion is the fact he's coming off a brutal injury, a pectoral tear that required surgery and forced him out of a previously scheduled bout against Miocic at UFC 295 last year. That was just the second time Jones - as long as he's been around - had to pull out of a fight due to injury.

Second, "Bones" has fought only twice in five years, most recently bulldozing Ciryl Gane in March 2023 to become the eighth two-division champ in promotion history. And we were only privy to 2 minutes, 4 seconds of Jon Jones action in that fight, his heavyweight debut. There were a lot of questions about whether Jones was still the same guy he used to be (and whether his cardio would hold up at the heavier weight), and although a quick submission win was an impressive result, it didn't prove as much as we might've hoped. Now Jones is two years older.

Speaking of which, Miocic turned 42 in August, and that's getting up there even by heavyweight standards. He's never said the R-word, but the former champion has by all accounts been semiretired for the last few years and probably would've only come back for two fights: Jones or Francis Ngannou, the latter who took Miocic's title with a knockout victory in March 2021.

Miocic said he believes he's stronger and better than ever, and that the time away did him well. He could be right, but Father Time waits for no one. It would be a surprise if peak Miocic shows up.

Will Jones retire after UFC 309? What about Miocic?

What everybody wants to know is what'll happen after the UFC 309 main event is over.

Jones said this could be the last fight of his career. And the widespread assumption is Miocic will go back into hibernation after coming back to the Octagon for a huge payday and the chance to beat "Bones." Could we be looking at a double retirement at the Garden?

There are a handful of different ways this could play out. And Jones coming out last week and saying he'd probably stick around to fight light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira but not interim heavyweight champ Tom Aspinall makes things a little more complicated.

If Jones wins, the most likely scenario is that he gets on the mic, no-sells a fight with Aspinall - the UFC 309 backup fighter who, barring catastrophe, will be cageside Saturday - and instead call out Pereira. Kind of like Julianna Pena calling out a retired Amanda Nunes instead of Kayla Harrison. It's simply too big of a fight for Jones to pass up, even at 37 years old and when he's already cemented himself as an all-time great. There'd be no guarantee the fight would happen, of course, but that's probably the path Jones would take. As for Miocic, it's hard to not see him retiring with a loss.

There are two paths for Miocic if he pulls off a stunner and becomes a three-time heavyweight champion. He could retire on the spot and join the likes of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Georges St-Pierre, and Nunes as one of the very few fighters to walk away on top. That wouldn't be surprising at all, given Miocic's priorities going into UFC 309 are beating Jones first and winning the title second.

But if Miocic even hints he'll fight again, you know Jones is going to want that rematch. A man with that big of an ego, tasting defeat for the first time - it's easy to see it. And you also know Miocic, like Jones, is extremely unlikely to agree to a fight with Aspinall. Miocic-Jones 2 - if there's an upset this weekend - would be one of the biggest fights of 2025, and the payday that comes as champion could be too enticing for Miocic to refuse.

Though a rematch is far from the likeliest of scenarios, Aspinall may want to root for Jones just in case.

Is Jones truly ducking Aspinall?

Jones has done everything in his power to show he has no interest in fighting Aspinall - after UFC 309 or ever.

The final straw was when Jones said Monday he'd willingly vacate the heavyweight title if it was the only way to set up a Pereira superfight. The fact he'd give up a championship he waited 11 years to win so easily speaks volumes.

So, yes, by definition, Jones is ducking Aspinall, the No. 1 contender in his division.

But is Jones truly scared to fight him? Probably not. This is Jon Jones we're talking about. A man who oozes confidence and fought the very best fighters from three generations. Jones' coach used to say the only person who could beat him was Jones himself. It seems doubtful Aspinall keeps Jones up at night.

However, it's also accurate that Jones has appeared to realize it makes more sense to take an easier but still lucrative fight against Pereira than it does to fight a legitimate heavyweight in Aspinall. Jones said it himself: He's doing what he needs to do to keep his legacy intact. He doesn't have to be scared of Aspinall to know it wouldn't be wise to step into the Octagon with him.

Can Chandler turn the corner after McGregor debacle?

Michael Chandler sure wasn't hoping the last two years would play out the way they did, even if he tries to tell you the exposure from coaching "The Ultimate Fighter" against Conor McGregor was a good thing.

But now it's time for Chandler to get back in the saddle and try to revive his career. Saturday's rematch against Oliveira is a chance for the 38-year-old to ease the sting of losing out on the McGregor fight, and also a chance to remind the world he's still a player in the lightweight division after wasting two years of his career.

Neither of which will be easy to do considering Oliveira's hand was raised in their first fight.

Chandler laid out some lofty goals for 2025, including a title shot against the Islam Makhachev-Arman Tsarukyan winner. But Chandler needs to get past Oliveira first before he can think too far ahead. This rematch is far from an easy task.