Skip to content

Expect Berríos to struggle vs. lethal Orioles offense

David Berding / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

We have a jam-packed 14-game MLB slate to begin the week. Let's waste no time in getting to our best bets.

José Berríos: Under 17.5 outs

Berríos started the season in magnificent fashion. He allowed just three runs over his first five starts while completing six-plus innings in each of them.

Berríos has since come back down to earth. He's conceded 12 earned runs in the past three games while completing five innings or less in two.

His underlying metrics are slipping as well. Berríos owns a .391 xwOBA and 10.9% barrel rate in that span. None of Monday's projected starters have fared worse than Berríos in xwOBA, while his barrel rate is also well beyond the league average.

Berríos has managed just a 16.7% strikeout rate while walking nearly 10% of the batters faced. He's giving up plenty of good contact, and he's not striking out enough batters to mitigate that.

The Orioles haven't been as lethal offensively of late, but they're a top-tier attack and generally make it very hard for opposing pitchers to provide length. Only three of the past 12 right-handed starters Baltimore has faced have completed six innings.

The Blue Jays only used two relievers in Sunday's game, so their bullpen is in pretty good shape. They won't hesitate to pull Berríos if his pitch count gets too high or he's struggling to get outs.

Odds: -125 (playable to -135)

Shota Imanaga: Under 1.5 walks

Imanaga has walked only five batters through his first seven MLB starts and has gone under this total in six of those games. The only exception came against the Mariners, who walked multiple times against the first six left-handed starters they faced this season.

Imanaga's process continues to be very strong. He's littering the zone with strikes and constantly working from ahead in counts. The only projected starter with a higher K:BB% over the past four starts is George Kirby, who walks so few batters his line is usually at 0.5.

With a walk rate of only 3% in that span, Imanaga is showing immense control. I'm happy to take my chances on him avoiding multiple walks, even against a potent Braves offense.

Odds: -125 (playable to -140)

Colin Rea: Over 15.5 outs

Rea has recorded 16-plus outs in four of seven starts this season. He's done his best work at home, where he's completed six innings in all three games. Those came against the Yankees, Mariners, and Rays, so it's not as if the competition was a walk in the park.

Rea should benefit from a big drop-off in competition versus the Pirates. They rank 26th in runs per game and have struggled immensely against right-handed pitching of late. The Pirates are hitting .163 versus righties over the past two weeks, which predictably ranks dead last in the majors.

The Brewers used four relievers Sunday and three Saturday. Their bullpen isn't completely spent, but it could certainly use some rest. In a matchup against a terrible offensive team, Milwaukee will no doubt be looking to get some distance from Rea in this game. He shouldn't have much trouble flirting with six innings.

Odds: -110 (playable to -140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox