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Orioles to cool off Diamondbacks at home

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We split our best bets for Thursday night's pint-sized card. Sonny Gray and the Cardinals laid an egg against the Brewers, but thankfully Erick Fedde recorded a quality start to give us a 1-1 record.

We'll set our sights higher with three plays for Friday's juicy slate.

Diamondbacks (+105) @ Orioles (-125)

The Diamondbacks are playing some of their best ball this season. They've won four consecutive games, outscoring their opponents 26-13 in aggregate. I don't see that success continuing Friday night against the Orioles.

Baltimore's elite offense tends to feature a lot of quality left-handed bats, which has proven to be Brandon Pfaadt's Achilles heel. He owns a .368 xwOBA against lefties over the past month, which is nowhere close to his sparkling .181 xwOBA versus right-handed hitters.

The Orioles' dangerous lefties include Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O'Hearn, and Cedric Mullins, while Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander can also cause problems from that side of the plate.

Baltimore's scored three or fewer runs in four of the past seven games, and this is a good matchup for the team to get going offensively.

Conversely, the Diamondbacks have not made a lot of noise at the plate in recent weeks. They rank 28th in xwOBA versus righties over the past three weeks and have posted a .215 batting average in that span.

Cole Irvin has pitched well this season and should be able to give the Orioles a quality start, putting them in good position to get a win.

Bet: Orioles (-125)

Jared Jones: Over 17.5 outs

Jones has gone over this total in four of seven starts this season. He's done his best work on home soil, where he's allowed just three runs over three games while completing at least six innings in each of them.

He's in a good spot to stay hot against the Cubs, who are missing some key bats due to injury. Their offensive numbers have plummeted as a result: They've managed just 2.87 runs per game over their last 12, which is one of the worst marks in the league.

They have hit just .188 against right-handed pitchers in that span while ranking bottom six in ground-ball rate and contact rate.

Jones possesses an electric pitching arsenal. He throws a ton of strikes and misses bats as well as anybody. His strengths should cause a floundering Chicago offense a world of problems.

Look for Jones to give the Pirates plenty of length in this one.

Odds: -120 (playable to -150)

Andrew Abbott: Over 15.5 outs

Abbott's made seven starts this season. He's recorded 16 outs or more in all four on the road while falling short in each of the three at home.

I don't think that's a coincidence. Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter-friendly environments in the majors, making it tougher for pitchers limit runs and go deeper into games.

Abbott's clearly benefited from pitching on the road and he finds himself in one of MLB's more pitcher-friendly parks Friday night in San Francisco.

That should serve him well, as will a Giants lineup featuring a ton of right-handed bats; Abbott owns a very strong .269 xwOBA versus right-handed hitters over the past month.

He should be able to hang in there and eat some innings for the Reds. They're certainly hoping so, as they've used at least three relievers in three straight games and gotten only five innings from their starters in four of the last five.

Expect Abbott to change that trend and flirt with six innings.

Odds: -130 (playable to -145)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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