Red-hot Braves to best Mariners in Seattle

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Success continues to come on the diamond as we ended last week on a 6-0 run with our best bets.

Here are Monday's plays:

Braves (-150) @ Mariners (+130)

Max Fried started his season in the worst fashion imaginable. He gave up three runs in less than an inning in his debut and followed that up by allowing seven against the Diamondbacks.

He's pitched excellently since that point, allowing four runs over 20 1/3 innings across three starts.

Fried owns a sparkling .255 xwOBA in that span, inducing grounders at a near 70% clip. He's giving up little quality contact and keeping almost everything on the ground.

The Mariners' offense doesn't appear ready to cause Fried problems. Seattle's hitting .202 vs. left-handed pitchers in April and is keeping company with the Athletics, Rockies, and White Sox in terms of xwOBA. Not ideal.

Meanwhile, the Braves should be able to cause Bryce Miller problems. He's sporting a .376 xwOBA over his past three starts but survived due to an unsustainably low .135 batting average on balls in play. That number's likely to increase, especially given the quality of contact Miller's allowing right now.

The Braves lead the majors in batting average against righties this month while the Mariners are struggling mightily against lefties. Given the two starters' trajectory and the offensive splits, the Braves should take care of business.

Bet: Braves (-150)

Clarke Schmidt: Under 16.5 outs

Schmidt's not someone the Yankees rely on to pitch deep into games. He doesn't give the team a ton of length, even when he's performing at a high level. He's gone under this total in 23 of his last 30 starts dating back to last season.

That includes a 0-5 start to this campaign, which is especially troubling when you consider he already faced the 9-19 Astros and two of the American League's three lowest-scoring offenses.

I have a hard time believing Schmidt will flip the switch against the Orioles, who rank third in xwOBA vs. right-handed pitchers this season and are tied for first in homers.

Baltimore's powerhouse offense routinely chases pitchers early. Only two of the past 13 righties they faced completed six innings.

Including last season's data, Schmidt's fared much worse against lefties than righties, which isn't ideal heading into this matchup. Lefties Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O'Hearn, Cedric Mullins, and a pair of dangerous switch-hitters in Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander mean Schmidt's looking at a relatively early exit.

Odds: -140 (playable to -160)

Grayson Rodriguez: Under 16.5 outs

Rodriguez is a dynamic talent but he's yet to consistently show the ability to pitch deep into games. He completed six innings in only 10 of 29 MLB starts, which equates to a 34% success rate.

He's done so in three of five games this season, but the schedule's been soft: Rodriguez faced the Angels twice, along with the Pirates, Twins, and Red Sox. The Angels are 10-18, the Pirates are a bottom-10 offense, and the Twins are dealing with injuries to multiple key bats. The Red Sox are the only above-average offense Rodriguez has seen.

I think he's going to have a tough time flirting with six innings against the Yankees, who sit tied with the Orioles for most homers vs. right-handed pitching. New York also leads the league in walk rate. Its offense is very disciplined, and can win with patience, power, or by hitting for average.

The Yankees tend to make every at-bat a grind, leading to high pitch counts, and making it extremely difficult for opposing starters to work deep into games.

Odds: -115 (playable to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.