MLB weekend best bets: Mets to pounce on Nationals
We have a jam-packed weekend of baseball ahead, with 29 games over the next two days.
Let's take a look at three that stand out.
Nationals (+225) @ Mets (-275)
Sept. 2, 7:10 p.m. ET
The Mets are coming off consecutive wins against the MLB-leading Dodgers. I like their chances of carrying that momentum forward and picking up another victory over the Nationals to start the weekend off right.
Put simply, the Mets have edges across the board. Josiah Gray has a ton of arm talent, but he remains quite erratic on the mound. He has allowed at least one homer in 10 straight starts, conceding 18 during that stretch.
It doesn't matter how well Gray pitches otherwise - or what percentage of batters he strikes out - when he continues to allow freebies every night.
Gray has allowed more than three homers per nine innings over the last month.
While the Mets aren't a power-hitting team per se, they have some pop in their lineup and are more than capable of stringing hits together against weaker opponents.
Gray has made two career starts against the Mets, allowing 10 runs and three homers in just seven innings of work.
I expect the Mets to get to Gray early and often in this one, which should position them nicely for a convincing victory.
The Nationals simply don't have the horses in their lineup to play keep up on most nights, and they'll likely be forced to do so with Gray starting against such a strong opponent.
Bet: Mets -1.5 (-125)
Brewers (-115) @ Diamondbacks (-105)
Sept. 2, 9:40 p.m. ET
The Brewers let us down in a big way on Thursday night. The Diamondbacks predictably got to Brandon Woodruff - who had not been pitching as well as advertised - but the Brewers laid a complete dud at the plate, failing to generate the three runs needed to push the total over the number.
We're going right back to the well on Friday, backing another over in Arizona.
The pitching matchup between Eric Lauer and Zach Davies isn't nearly as good as the surface stats indicate.
Lauer owns a 3.00 ERA over the past month, which lags well behind his FIP of 5.22. He's not pitching all that well, and as the Diamondbacks have shown us of late, they can run it up against struggling opponents.
It's a similar story with Davies. His FIP of 4.35 is much higher than his ERA (2.39) over the last month, suggesting that regression could be coming for him as well.
Although the Brewers put up a complete dud on Thursday night, their offense has been playing well - especially against righties. They're sixth in wOBA and second in ISO over the past couple of weeks.
Look for two competent offenses to string together some runs against pitchers playing over their heads.
Bet: Over 8.5 (-110)
Cubs (TBD) @ Cardinals (TBD)
Sept. 3, 7:15 p.m. ET
If you're into good pitching, this should be the game for you. Veteran righty Adam Wainwright has turned back the clock over the last month, pitching consistently well for the NL Central-leading Cardinals.
Wainwright's numbers are encouraging across the board. He has posted a 2.79 FIP, induced ground balls at a high rate, and allowed only 0.28 homers per nine innings.
His ability to generate grounders in bulk, and keep the ball in the park, allows him to limit the damage opposing offenses can cause.
Drew Smyly has followed an extremely similar formula, especially of late. He has posted a 2.69 FIP over the past 30 days while allowing 0.30 homers per nine innings.
His contact numbers are very strong - meaning he doesn't allow many hard-hit balls - and his ground ball rate of 52% is actually higher than Wainwright's.
With generating runs in chunks such a difficult task against both pitchers, these teams are likely going to need to put together a lot of hits to make this game remotely high scoring.
With a projected total of nine, there'll likely be value backing the under.
Bet: Under (expected line: 9 runs)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.