MLB Thursday best bets: Braves to thrash Rockies
Thursday night will be a slow one in the majors, with just four games scheduled for the evening slate.
Luckily, there are still a couple I want to attack. Let's dig into why.
Rockies (+320) @ Braves (-400)
This game has the potential to be ugly for the Rockies. Real ugly.
Taking the bump for Colorado is veteran righty Chad Kuhl. He has objectively been one of the worst starters in the majors over the past month, posting a 10.80 ERA and 8.25 FIP.
His strikeout rates are below average but serviceable, and he doesn't give up a ton of walks. Where he gets into trouble is with a complete inability to keep the ball inside the park.
Kuhl has allowed 11 homers and 34 runs over his last seven starts despite not going past five innings in any of those outings. His starts are consistently short, and yet, he still can't hold opposing offenses to a manageable number.
I don't expect that to change against this dangerous Braves team. They have mashed righties over the last three weeks, slotting fourth in wOBA, ISO, and hard-hit rate. Only the Yankees have hit more homers this season, and they play in a park more conducive to long balls than Atlanta.
Suffice to say, Kuhl's struggles should continue against a potent offense that excels at exploiting pitchers with such a weakness.
If Spencer Strider wasn't starting, I'd probably just target Kuhl with Atlanta's team total. I think a three-run victory is very much in play with a pitcher of Strider's caliber, though.
Strider owns a 2.74 ERA and 1.64 FIP over the past 30 days. He has struck out nearly 36% of opposing batters, given up free passes at a low rate, and limited fly balls.
The Rockies have struggled mightily to hit righties the past three weeks, sitting 29th in wOBA and 30th in ISO.
Strider should be able to severely limit their attack, putting the Braves in great position to pick up a convincing victory.
Bet: Braves -2.5 (-110)
Brewers (-135) @ Diamondbacks (+115)
Offense, offense, offense. That's what we've seen from the last few games in Arizona.
The Diamondbacks and Phillies combined for 55 runs during their three-game series, with no fewer than 15 runs scored in any game.
While I don't expect the offensive explosion to continue to that extent, there should be fireworks in this one.
Despite what his ERA suggests, Brandon Woodruff hasn't pitched well of late. He owns a 4.46 FIP over the last 30 days and has conceded the highest hard-contact rate among the day's projected starters.
Arizona sits fifth in wOBA and ninth in ISO against righties the past three weeks. The lineup is hitting the ball well and capable of doing some damage to Woodruff, who's clearly not at the top of his game right now.
This is also a nice spot for the Brewers' offense. Merrill Kelly isn't a priority guy to target by any means, but he's allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts.
With the Brewers ranking fifth in ISO and first in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks, there's every reason to believe they can do their share of damage in this one.
This total should probably be sitting at 8.5. Take the value and back another over in Arizona.
Bet: Over 7.5 (+100)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.