MLB Monday best bets: Dodgers, Twins to batter lousy competition
We finished with a 1-2 record on our MLB picks over the weekend, cashing on the mighty Yankees but failing to get the runs we needed from the Tigers and Blue Jays in favorable matchups. Here are our best bets for Monday:
We picked on Nationals youngster Joan Adon ahead of his last start, when he lasted just 4 2/3 innings against the Marlins. And while he allowed just one run over that start, he still ceded five hits in fewer than five frames and struck out just two batters.
Instead, he benefitted greatly from a season-high 11 ground balls induced, though he still fell victim to five line drives and mustered just five swinging strikes. The highlight may have been that he finished with zero walks after issuing 23 free passes in his previous 32 innings - including five apiece in his previous two starts.
He'll be lucky to keep the base paths clean against the Dodgers, who lead MLB in walk rate (11.1%) and own the second-lowest ground-ball rate (40.5%) and the highest wOBA (.330) in baseball. Simply put, this is a nightmare matchup for the 23-year-old righty against the lineup that leads the majors in average runs over the first five innings (3.05).
After starting off hot in April and then enduring a bumpy stretch in early May, the Twins are rolling again, winning four straight and six of their last seven with six multi-run victories in that stretch.
They've mostly beaten up on lousy competition in that run, but does that really change Monday? The Tigers have MLB's second-worst wOBA (.269) and the lowest hard-hit rate (34.2%), and Monday's starter, Beau Brieske, is fresh off a six-run start and has allowed multiple home runs in three of his five career starts.
While Chris Archer hasn't been his most efficient - his WHIP (1.405) is currently the second worst of his 10-year career - the Twins have kept him on a short leash, limiting him to four innings or fewer in six of his seven starts. If he can keep Detroit's bats in check early on, that should be enough for the win.
- Nevin gets 10-game ban, 11 others from Angels-M's brawl suspended
- Rockies' Kuhl tosses 3-hit shutout in win over Dodgers
- Twins' Gray used Wes Johnson's departure as motivation in strong outing
- Mariners' Servais: People like to see baseball fights, but this 'isn't hockey'
- MLB Power Rankings: Red Sox, Astros surge ahead while Giants tumble