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2022 MLB best bets: World Series picks, win totals, player futures, & more

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How can you not be romantic about baseball? Anticipation for the 2022 campaign is palpable following a chaotic and often discouraging offseason, when we wondered if there would even be a season at all.

As we inch closer to Opening Day's first pitch, we've seen considerable movement in the futures markets. A lot of value that once existed is gone, but there's still plenty of opportunity to get down on current numbers at theScore Bet and Barstool Sportsbook.

Let's start with a bang and get straight to my best World Series values.

World Series, League Championship

World Series: Brewers (+1400), Twins (+5000)

If the Twins and Brewers meet in the 2022 Fall Classic, I'll be sipping margaritas in the Caribbean all winter.

Both teams have received some support since opening +1800 and +7000, respectively, but the adjustments haven't been big enough since November - I still see value with each.

The Brewers will coast to a National League Central title, at which point their excellent pitching staff - three aces, strong depth, and the league's top bullpen - will give them a chance to beat anyone. The lineup is as dynamic as it is underrated, and with guys like Tyrone Taylor and post-hype sleeper Keston Hiura - who've both been mashing the ball this spring - pushing for at-bats off the bench, this team isn't getting the respect it deserves in the shadows of the Dodgers and Braves.

In the American League, expect a significant rebound from the Twins following a disastrous 73-win season. I'll be touching on them a lot throughout this article, and with good reason. A healthy Byron Buxton will push to win AL MVP atop a lineup that was crushed by injuries last season. Carlos Correa is well protected in the three-hole, and keep an eye out for former top prospect Alex Kirilloff, who has all the tools for a monster breakout.

The rotation's a question mark, but there's reason for optimism. Sonny Gray was a shrewd veteran addition to lead exciting youngsters Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who are both primed for a big step forward while being backed by a strong stable of bullpen arms. In a weak AL Central, the Twins are equipped to prove 2021 an anomaly.

AL Pennant: Red Sox (+1000), Twins (+2500)

We add to our Twins position here, while buying a Red Sox team I'm growing more infatuated with by the day. Rafael Devers should cruise to a top-three finish in AL MVP voting in this stacked lineup, and I'm firmly on board the Tanner Houck train. The towering righty is primed for a breakout, and will serve as a key rotation arm to get the Red Sox over the hump. This team only improved over the summer and there's no reason why we can't expect it back in the ALCS. I give Boston about a 14% chance to win the pennant, which equates to odds of around +600. At 10-1, this is a steal.

Division winners

NL East: Braves (+110)

Every year, we're dealt the same Mets hype, and every year they leave fans and bettors disappointed.

Hopefully you got on the Braves at +150 a week ago, but there's still value here at anything plus money. Who knows when Jacob deGrom will be back on an MLB mound, and Max Scherzer's status is also uncertain. The Mets are deeper than in years past, but the Braves were already better before the injuries. They didn't have Ronald Acuna or Marcell Ozuna for over half of last season and still won the division. They also added Collin McHugh and Kenley Jansen to a top-three bullpen in baseball. There will be no World Series hangover in Atlanta.

NL Central: Brewers (-185)

Who's beating the Brewers here, honestly? No one.

AL Central: Twins (+575)

This is undoubtedly the White Sox's division to lose, but the gap between the two teams is closer than this price suggests.

Win totals

My top five, in no particular order:

Reds over 73.5 (-110)

The Reds don't look particularly interested in competing this year following an offseason fire sale, but there's still a lot to like about this team. The rotation still boasts good front-end talent with exciting, young depth, while the lineup is at the very least serviceable.

But this bet's more about the NL Central than anything else. The Cubs are entrenched in a full rebuild, the Cardinals are vastly overrated by markets, and the Pirates will be one of the worst teams in baseball. The Reds don't have to be great to surpass 73.5 wins. They don't even have to be good. But this team is not 10 wins worse than last season in a division that got even weaker.

Tigers under 78.5 (+105)

Few teams generated as much hype this offseason as the Tigers, who brought in Eduardo Rodriguez, Javier Baez, and Austin Meadows. Why are we so excited, though? Rodriguez is a Statcast darling who's never lived up to his projections. Baez is as good a defender as he is overrated as a hitter - one who struggles to get on base and whose K% has risen in each of the last four seasons. Meadows is a decent player with the same on-base issues, who's virtually unplayable against lefties. Why do you think the Rays parted with him for peanuts?

These are the guys who are supposed to help the Tigers to their best season since 2016? This total is putting way too much stock in the young pitching trio of Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning. Mize and Skubal will be heavily relied upon, and both of them outperformed last season based on advanced numbers. There will be growing pains with such a young rotation and there's virtually no depth behind them.

Best-case scenario for the Tigers is 80 wins in a division where they're the fourth-best team behind the White Sox, Twins, and Guardians. I'm not even convinced they finish ahead of the Royals - a team with a better lineup and deeper rotation.

Marlins over 76.5 (-110)

It's easy to forget about the Marlins in a division boasting the defending World Series champs, the forever-overhyped Mets, the reigning NL MVP (Bryce Harper), and the current NL MVP favorite (Juan Soto), but Miami has quietly put together a roster capable of reaching the postseason.

The rotation doesn't have a weak spot, the bullpen is reliable, and the lineup is going to be a real treat with additions Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia. The veteran outfielders offer the sort of reliability and protection in the heart of the order the Marlins sorely lacked last season. With the arms at their disposal, they'll again contend as a top-10 team in run prevention, and now they have the bats to capitalize.

Twins over 81.5 (-115)

This is admittedly no longer a great number, but it'd be irresponsible for me to not discuss my Twins infatuation here given my substantial investments in over 75.5 (pre-Correa signing) and over 79.5. And I still see value here at 81.5 - I project the Twins to finish with 85 wins in a weak AL Central.

I can't say much more about this team. In a season where everything went wrong, they won 73 games. With only six players managing over 300 at-bats and no pitcher throwing more than 121.2 innings. This season, with the veteran players they brought in, and some key young talent ready to contribute, anything .500 or below for the Twins must be considered a disappointment.

Athletics under 68.5 (+100)

The problem we're trying to solve is that there are rich teams and there are poor teams. Then there's 50 feet of garbage, and then there's us. It's an unfair game. And now we've been gutted. We're like organ donors for the rich.

Brad Pitt's famous "Moneyball" quote is incredibly fitting for the 2022 Athletics. The Braves took their liver (Matt Olson), the Blue Jays their heart (Matt Chapman), and the Padres and Mets their kidneys (Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt). Oakland sold its biggest assets in a hurry and clearly has little interest in competing this season. The rotation is a mess - don't be surprised if (when?) Frankie Montas is traded, too. This is going to be a painful season for the A's as they rely on a group of replacement-level veterans and B-level prospects in a drastically improved AL West. A 100-loss season is more likely than a 70-win campaign.

Player awards

AL MVP: Luis Robert (+2200), Buxton (+3300)

Robert missed too much time last season to be firmly in the MVP conversation ahead of this year, which works in our favor. He's a hitting machine - no player managed more hits per game than him in 2021 - with tremendous raw power. He also drastically cut down on his K% last season. He's the best hitter in a stacked lineup and won't have any issues building his counting stats.

Buxton's another player we're getting a discount on thanks to an injury-ravaged season. However, when healthy, there are few - if any? - players better and more valuable to their team, given his ability at the plate and in the field. The issue is always his health. He played only 61 games last season and still hit 19 home runs, slashing .306/.358/.647. His 4.2 WAR was a career high - in only 61 games! If Buxton can play 140 games, like he did in 2017, then 33-1 is the best value you'll find in any market.

NL MVP: Francisco Lindor (+2500)

You know I'm not particularly high on the Mets, but given the injuries in the rotation, if they're going to have success, it'll be because of their lineup. Lindor's first season in New York was forgettable, but he's too good to not bounce back. He's seeing the ball well this spring, leading the Mets in at-bats (34), home runs (four), and RBIs (11), while slashing .294/.342/.706.

Starling Marte's arrival will mean more RBI opportunities, while the additions of Eduardo Escobar and Mark Canha will provide more lineup protection. All the tools are there, Lindor just needs to deliver - and he's done it before. At 25-1, I'm willing to take that gamble in a market where the favorites are either missing the start of the season (Acuna, Fernando Tatis Jr.) or playing for the basement-dwelling Nationals (Soto).

AL ROY: Josh Lowe (+2800)

This year's AL rookie class might be the best we've ever seen, and Lowe is a big reason why, despite being priced as an afterthought.

The Rays are a smart organization - they knew what they were doing in trading away Meadows to clear a path for Lowe. The 24-year-old has nothing left to prove in the minors after hitting 22 home runs and stealing 26 bases in AAA last season, while slashing .291/.381/.535. His unique blend of power and speed will allow him to accrue the sort of counting stats voters salivate over in these markets.

NL ROY: MacKenzie Gore (+2700), Nick Lodolo (+4000)

Find me a more post-hype sleeper than Gore. You can't. He went from a can't-miss pitching prospect to nearly traded for spare parts last season by the Padres, who are surely thrilled they weren't too quick on the trigger.

After stunningly losing his luster over the last two years, a switch seems to have flipped - it's all come rushing back this spring. Suddenly, Gore looks every bit the top prospect he was, posting a 16-3 K/BB ratio in 12 innings while surrendering only eight hits. The Padres are desperate to win now, so don't expect them to hold Gore back if he seizes the opportunity.

Lodolo is another exciting young arm who seized a spring opportunity. The 24-year-old posted a 12-2 K/BB ratio in 11.1 innings, with a 2.38 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. That was enough to win a spot in the Reds' rotation, after the former No. 7 pick posted a 2.31 ERA across 13 minor-league starts in 2021. In a pitching-friendly division, Lodolo has the talent and opportunity to make noise in a wide-open NL field.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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