MLB Tuesday best bets: Can the Braves continue to surprise?
Tuesday marks one of our last multi-game MLB slates of the season.
We'll take a closer look at the best way to approach this slate.
The Dodgers finished with baseball's second-best record, and Walker Buehler, their ace - for most of the season, anyway - will take the mound. This is a lock, right? Not so fast!
The matchups in this game appear to favor the Braves, at least in the early going.
Charlie Morton used curveballs more frequently than any other pitch this season, tossing them 36.7% of the time. That's nightmare fuel for a Dodgers team that was horrendous against curveballs this year.
Mookie Betts (.374 wOBA) was the only player on L.A.'s roster to post a wOBA over .335 versus the curve. Just three of 16 eligible Dodgers hitters finished above .315. Knowing the curveball is the Dodgers' kryptonite, it's safe to assume Morton will be going to it early and often.
Additionally, while Buehler is a fantastic hurler, he doesn't profile all that well against this Braves offense. Atlanta smashes four-seamers, which Buehler throws nearly 45% of the time. The Braves have 10 regular position players who posted a wOBA of .350 or higher against four-seam fastballs this season, excluding the injured Ronald Acuna.
Given the Dodgers' struggles against Morton's bread and butter, and with the Braves excelling versus Buehler's, I see value on Atlanta continuing to surprise and hang in Tuesday. For the first half of the game, anyway.
Back the Braves to win or draw the first five innings at a very reasonable price.
Bet: Braves +0.5 runs, F5 innings (-110)
The Astros let us down Monday. They plated three runs in the fourth inning to get us within striking distance of the over on their team total before being silenced in five consecutive frames during an embarrassing blowout defeat.
Good teams bounce back, though, and I expect the Astros' bats to do just that Tuesday.
Nick Pivetta has pitched very well of late, but, like Buehler, he doesn't profile well against his opponent. Pivetta is an even more extreme fastball pitcher than Buehler, tossing it more than 50% of the time.
Houston has a lot of guys who excel against four-seamers, with names like Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley, and Yordan Alvarez all posting wOBAs of .382 or better versus fastballs. Altuve, Tucker, and Brantley all finished above .400.
I think the Astros will respond with their backs against the wall and make plenty of noise at the dish.
Bet: Astros (+110)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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