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6 storylines to watch as baseball's new season starts

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Major League Baseball hopes this season can be a return to something more familiar, that some sense of normalcy can be restored on its fields. Yet, even if the pandemic is not as disruptive this spring, this early season comes with plenty of uncertainty and significant changes.

From the introduction of an allegedly deadened ball to the policing of sticky substances to reduced workloads for pitchers, all of these potential developments create interesting questions and storylines. The following represents what I am most interested in early this season, questions whose answers could have meaningful impacts on play and the fortunes of both individuals and teams.

How dead is the new ball?

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MLB is taking more of an interest in how the game is played, in its aesthetic appeal. As home runs continue to increase, many lament that fewer balls are in play and athletic action is reduced. So MLB has introduced what it says is a less lively ball this spring. But it's unclear how this new ball will play in 2021.

While home runs per game were down in spring training, the rate of home runs actually increased slightly this March (3.62% of all at-bats) compared to the last full spring training in 2019 (3.58%). Home runs could actually decline in total volume but rise as a share of balls in play if strikeouts continue to grow.

And fly-ball distance? Comparing last season to this spring training is not apples to apples given the different environments and conditions. The average projected fly-ball distance in Arizona and Florida ballparks entering play Tuesday was 317 feet compared to 311 feet in the 2020 regular season, according to Statcast. Even if the ball is slightly less lively, improved skill levels and more swing changes designed to optimize ball flight could negate a deadened ball's influence.

If the ball is deader, whom might it hurt?

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Two teams tied for the most home runs hit 375 feet or fewer the last two seasons: The Yankees and Astros each had 100 such home runs. The next closest team? The Reds with 73. So the Astros and Yankees are interesting outliers.

On the surface, players like Yankees second baseman DJ LeMahieu (19) and Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (17) would seem like candidates to be affected by a deader ball. Since 2019, they rank first and third in home runs with estimated distances of 375 or under. LeMahieu hits a lot of low liners and ground balls, and Bregman ranked in the middle of the pack in average exit velocity the last two seasons.

But it gets complicated, as LeMahieu and Bregman's approaches fit perfectly in their home ballparks. LeMahieu peppers the short porch at Yankee Stadium with a Jeter-like, inside-out swing. Bregman has learned to hook balls into the Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid Park. If Bregman called PNC Park and its spacious left field home, he would have projected to hit a combined 29 home runs the last two seasons, according to Baseball Savant, instead of the 47 he did hit. Perhaps we'll see the difference in balls hit to the power alleys and dead center field.

Can Ohtani match Babe Ruth's 1919?

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Few baseball stories would captivate an audience more than Angels pitcher/DH Shohei Ohtani excelling in both roles. In 2018, he became the first major-league player to record 300 or more at-bats (326) and pitch at least 50 innings (51 2/3) in a season since Babe Ruth did so with the Red Sox a century earlier.

But to help an in-his-prime Mike Trout make the postseason, the Angels likely need even more from Ohtani. He might have to reach some other Ruthian benchmarks: say, 450 at-bats, and more than 100 innings. No major leaguer has gotten there since Ruth last did in 1919.

The Angels plan to have Ohtani be part of a six-man rotation and DH the majority of games he is not pitching. He will no longer be restricted as much from hitting on days before or after he pitches, the Angels say. He even hit and pitched in the same game this spring. FanGraphs projects 440 at-bats (497 plate appearances) and 96 innings from Ohtani. He was a 4 WAR player in 2018. If he extrapolated that performance over FanGraphs' projected workload, he'd be a 6 WAR player.

If the Angels and Ohtani can pull it off, with good health and performance, it will result in one of the most valuable performances in baseball history. It will also be a heckuva story. Ohtani would likely become an MVP candidate alongside Trout.

Ohtani has been so good with the bat this spring that he has some observers wondering if he should stop pitching. Even Ruth eventually stopped pitching, and he was a great pitcher. Of course, when Ohtani first signed with the Angels, many thought he ought to give up hitting because he had ace stuff - and he still does.

It would be great for the sport, and for the Angels, if he can excel in both.

Will an injury wave crush MLB arms?

Given how little pitchers worked last season, there is essentially no precedent for what to expect in terms of health and workload in 2021. The last time a bunch of professional baseball pitchers stopped playing en masse for non-injury reasons was during World War II. (And perhaps it's encouraging that those players, upon returning, suffered little drop-off, according to Baseball Reference data.)

Reports from various camps this spring suggest innings and pitch counts will be reduced for many arms, and some teams will even attempt six-man rotations or unconventional roles like in Tampa Bay. But perhaps we should also allow for the possibility that pitchers will benefit from less wear and tear in 2020 and that the industry, generally, might now be better equipped to train and develop pitchers thanks to new technology and training techniques.

While UCL tears do not cover the entire spectrum of injuries, they're one of the most common severe injuries for pitchers, and the number of Tommy John surgeries performed to repair them each year has generally trended down since a peak in 2015, according to Jon Roegele's database.

Moreover, the busiest time for elbow injuries requiring Tommy John surgery is in the first quarter of the year, and Tommy John surgeries through Tuesday were at their lowest first-quarter mark since 2012. Perhaps the industry is becoming better at training and managing arms. This season will provide a test.

Will MLB actually police sticky stuff?

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One of the most violated bylaws in the MLB rule book is the one prohibiting the application of foreign substances to baseballs. While pitchers have been doctoring baseballs for ages, modern spin-rate and spin-axis tracking help them better understand how to design pitches to improve pitch shape and, ultimately, performance. That's where sticky stuff - pine tar, Firm Grip, and other concoctions - comes into play. It can be found coated on caps, pitching arms, jerseys, and elsewhere. But big brother - MLB's Hawkeye-powered, ball- and player-tracking system, Statcast - is watching and recording.

Greater spin results in more movement and more swing and miss by opponents. It's certainly played a role in the sport's strikeout surge. Consider that average four-seam fastball revolutions per minute inched up from 2,238 in 2015 to 2,288 in 2019 before surging to 2,307 last season despite a slight decline in average velocity. Spin generally increases with velocity. More spin generally gives a fastball less vertical drop because it is better able to work against the force of gravity - almost appearing to rise on the way to the plate. Breaking ball movement has also increased. The average vertical movement of a curveball, adjusting for gravity, was 5.4 inches in 2015; last season, it was 7 inches.

MLB released a memo this spring saying it would monitor changes to pitchers' spin rates and test baseballs thrown by pitchers suspected of using sticky stuff. Of course, such policing leads to more questions. What about a pitcher who was using sticky stuff before spin tracking debuted in 2015? Or before a pitch's spin axis could be directly tracked, which began last year? MLB wants to reduce strikeouts and it has the technology to identify rule breakers, but will it have the resolve to enforce its rulebook?

Can the Yankees stay healthy?

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Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Corey Kluber, and Jameson Taillon have each missed significant time due to injury in recent years, but all of them made it through the spring healthy. If they can remain on the field, they could make the Yankees as strong a World Series contender as any team in the majors.

The Yankees have overhauled their training staff, and the way they think about training players, in recent years. It's now led by Eric Cressey, who previously trained players independently using unconventional methods. Pitching coach Matt Blake is a Cressey disciple. In 2019, the Yankees hired pitching trainer Sam Briend away from Driveline Baseball. If the game's largest-market team can find an edge in improving player health and productivity, it would provide yet another advantage.

Kluber was a notable Cressey client before he signed with the Yankees. Under Cressey, Judge and Stanton focused more on flexibility and did less weight training this offseason. Even before joining the Yankees, Taillon was rebuilding his arm action, adopting a shorter arm path - like the one employed by White Sox ace Lucas Giolito, who used it to turn his career around.

Other pitchers like Shane Bieber, Tyler Mahle, and Trevor Bauer have also excelled after adopting such a motion. The Yankees are overwhelming favorites to return to the postseason, but with better health, they could be right there with the Los Angeles Dodgers as World Series favorites. And if they can keep this collection of players on the field, every MLB team that hasn't already bought into new training techniques could jump fully on board.

Travis Sawchik is theScore's senior baseball writer.

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