Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
We nearly threw another perfect game on Tuesday, but the Athletics' walk-off grand slam spoiled a masterful performance from Lance Lynn. We'll get back to our winning ways with an appealing slate on Wednesday.
As we discussed in our betting trends breakdown Tuesday, the Red Sox and Rays have been two of the least profitable teams through the first two weeks of the season. But the outlook in Tampa is a lot sunnier than it is in Boston.
The Rays have run into a bit of bad luck relative to their 5-6 record. Their run differential (plus-6) is tied for 11th-best in the majors, and their batted ball metrics suggest better than below-average run production. The one thing that is clicking is a stellar rotation - including lefty Yarbrough, who is among the best in the entire league at limiting hard contact.
That's a killer recipe against the Red Sox, who own a 21.4% soft-contact rate against lefties, the third-worst of any lineup. Boston has gone 2-6 in its last eight games against a southpaw starter, and the team's impressive .872 OPS this year against left-handed pitching is undercut by a .339 BABIP, which will be hard to sustain against an excellent ground-ball pitcher.
And then there's Perez, who has a 1.31 WHIP after starts against the Orioles and Mets that each lasted fewer than six innings. If the Red Sox need their bullpen to save them in this one, it's probably too late. This line shouldn't be as close as it is, so don't hesitate to pay the price on the home side.
Pick: Rays (-155)
The Indians under is the hottest bet in baseball, and oddsmakers haven't done enough to dissuade me from betting it again. Clevinger got tagged for four runs against a stellar Twins lineup in his last start, but he still rang up five batters in four innings and was "helped" by a dreadful Cleveland lineup en route to another under - one of 11 in the team's 12 games this year.
Now Clevinger faces a Cincinnati order that has a combined .774 OPS and 30% strikeout rate against the righty in his career. On the other side, Reds rookie Antone is toeing the rubber for the first time as a starter, but he was effective in long relief a week ago, lasting 4 1/3 innings with five punchouts on just one hit. And, truthfully, it won't take much to be effective against one of the least productive lineups in baseball.
Even if Clevinger gives up another pair of dingers or the Indians' bats wake up, it shouldn't be enough to push this total over eight runs.
Pick: Under 8 (-110)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.