MLB Opening Day picks: Pay the price for Yankees, Dodgers
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The first night of the 2020 MLB season is almost here, and boy, does it look to be worth the wait. The Yankees and Dodgers, co-favorites to win the World Series, are both in action Thursday, as are the defending champion Nationals. (Oh, and the Giants, too.)
Here are the odds for both Opening Day matchups and our best bets for each:
Yankees (-145) at Nationals (+125)
Pitchers: Gerrit Cole vs. Max Scherzer
Spread: Yankees -1.5 (+125) | Nationals +1.5 (-145)
Total: 7 (over -140)
These two aces were supposed to face off in Game 5 of last year's World Series, but Washington scratched Scherzer for that contest due to neck spasms stemming from a nerve condition. It was one of many ailments that have left bettors questioning Scherzer's readiness in 2020. He started just eight games with a 4.81 ERA over the back half of 2019, and he was rocked for seven runs in the first two innings of an exhibition start this past weekend.
He'll need to have his best stuff against a (mostly) healthy Yankees team that was one of six in 2019 to post positive weighted runs (0.03) per 100 sliders - Scherzer's best pitch by far last year. The slider has also become a dangerous weapon for Cole, who should face little resistance against a Nationals lineup expected to take a major step back in 2020.
If this one comes down to the bullpens - as many expect to see in early-season games this year - give the edge to New York there, too. The Yankees' pitching depth is among the best in the bigs even if Aroldis Chapman can't go, while the Nationals' rebuilt bullpen has plenty to prove after posting a league-worst 5.66 ERA in 2020.
Pick: Yankees -145
Giants (+250) at Dodgers (-300)
Pitchers: Johnny Cueto vs. Clayton Kershaw
Spread: Dodgers -1.5 (-130) | Giants +1.5 (+110)
Total: 8 (under -115)
The Dodgers have won 10 of their last 12 season openers, with a 3-1 record against the Giants in those 12 games. This L.A. team might be the best one yet, while San Francisco is as bad as it's been in years. Still, do you really want to lay -300 odds on the first night of the season?
You probably should. Favorites of -300 or shorter were 86-18 last year, winning by an average of 3.29 runs for a $2,200 return on investment, according to Sports Database. The Dodgers were 11-1 when favored that heavily in 2019, winning by an average of five runs. Los Angeles is also 25-6 in that spot when Kershaw starts, with more than a three-run average margin of victory in those wins.
Cueto is better than he showed in 2019 when he compiled a 5.06 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in four starts after returning from Tommy John surgery. He'll struggle to contain this juggernaut Dodgers lineup, though. The Giants' underwhelming bats, meanwhile, are unlikely to make a dent in Kershaw's career 1.74 ERA against San Francisco, his best against any team (minimum five starts). Expect a blowout to close the night.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-130)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.