MLB home runs odds: Don't forget about 'Khrush'
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The sprint for the home run crown starts Thursday, when four of the favorites to lead the league in dingers - Cody Bellinger (+1000), Aaron Judge (+1200), Bryce Harper (+1500), and Giancarlo Stanton (+1500) - are in action on Opening Day.
But in a shortened campaign, do you really want to place your money on a player with short odds - especially with the season leader likely hitting 20 homers or fewer?
This is the perfect year to chase power in short bursts and swing for long shots. Here are the odds to lead MLB in home runs, with our best bets:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Field | +700 |
| Mike Trout | +800 |
| Pete Alonso | +800 |
| Christian Yelich | +1000 |
| Cody Bellinger | +1000 |
| Aaron Judge | +1200 |
| Joey Gallo | +1200 |
| Bryce Harper | +1500 |
| Eloy Jimenez | +1500 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | +1500 |
| Nolan Arenado | +1500 |
| Yordan Alvarez | +1500 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | +1800 |
| Miguel Sano | +2000 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +2000 |
| Eugenio Suarez | +2500 |
| J.D. Martinez | +2500 |
| Matt Olson | +2500 |
| Gleyber Torres | +3000 |
| Jorge Soler | +3000 |
| Rhys Hoskins | +3000 |
| Alex Bregman | +4000 |
| Khris Davis | +4000 |
| Trevor Story | +4000 |
| George Springer | +5000 |
| Kris Bryant | +5000 |
Field (+700)
Yes, this is the season to fade the favorites. And yes, the field is technically the favorite. But there's simply too much value not on the board to pass up these odds.
The headliner is Nelson Cruz, who led the league in home runs per game (0.34) and barrels per plate appearance (12.5%) in 2019 and ranked third in hard-hit rate (51.2%). Kyle Schwarber (50.7%) and Franmil Reyes (50.4%) ranked fourth and fifth in hard-hit rate, respectively, and both are on this ticket. So are Josh Bell and Joc Pederson, who tied for fourth in homers (18) through 60 games last season. Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto - projected by ZiPs to tie for ninth-most bombs in the majors with 13 apiece in 2020 - are also included.
There's no one player on whom it's worth laying 7-1 odds in this wacky season. But for all of those players? This is a must-bet at a reasonable price.
Jorge Soler (+3000)
Soler has been hovering at this price or longer all summer long, and it doesn't make any sense. The Royals slugger led the AL in homers (48) and led the majors in "no doubt" home runs (30) in 2019, and the underlying metrics supported the power surge: He led all players with 70 barrels and ranked top 10 in both hard-hit rate (49.6%) and average exit velocity on non-grounders (97.2%).
Injuries have always been an issue for Soler, but a shortened season should help him sustain the power he's teased for years. Nobody else on the board offers his combination of production and price, making him an easy target in 2020.
Khris Davis (+4000)
If you're searching for a long shot this year, look no further than Davis, who led the majors with 48 home runs in 2018. That season featured the league's worst power environment since 2015, but it was the third straight year in which "Khrush" hit at least 40 home runs; he led all players in homers (133) over that three-year stretch.
So what happened in 2019, when he hit just 23 round-trippers in 133 games with the Athletics? Injuries to his hand and hip caused severe dips in his exit velocity and launch angle, and he admitted those issues hampered his power potential. If Davis can stay healthy in 2020, his pop should return to its 2016-18 levels - an absolute heist at 40-1.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.