Best bets to win NL MVP: Bell has elite upside as long shot
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Unlike in the American League, where Mike Trout has dominated in recent years, the National League MVP has been won by 11 different players in the last 11 seasons. Three of the four favorites this year - Mookie Betts (+600), Christian Yelich (+650), and Cody Bellinger (+800) - are former MVP winners, but history suggests a new name will be crowned in this shortened campaign.
Here are the odds to win NL MVP (shorter than 60-1) with our best bets in the field:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Mookie Betts | +600 |
| Christian Yelich | +650 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | +700 |
| Cody Bellinger | +800 |
| Juan Soto | +900 |
| Bryce Harper | +1300 |
| Nolan Arenado | +1700 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +2000 |
| Freddie Freeman | +2000 |
| Eugenio Suarez | +2500 |
| Javier Baez | +2500 |
| Ketel Marte | +2500 |
| Manny Machado | +2500 |
| Pete Alonso | +2500 |
| Kris Bryant | +3000 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | +3000 |
| Jacob deGrom | +4000 |
| Max Scherzer | +4000 |
| Trevor Story | +4000 |
| Anthony Rizzo | +5000 |
| Corey Seager | +5000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | +5000 |
| Jeff McNeil | +5000 |
| Max Muncy | +5000 |
| Rhys Hoskins | +5000 |
| Josh Bell | +5500 |
| Ozzie Albies | +5500 |
Nolan Arenado (+1700)
Few players display the consistent excellence of Arenado, who's finished in the top eight in MVP voting in each of the last five years, with five Gold Gloves and four Silver Slugger awards in that span. He's projected by Steamer to finish with a .943 OPS - the fourth-highest projection in the NL - with a higher defensive rating (2.8) than any top-40 hitter, per OPS projections.
Arenado's one of the few favorites to not have an MVP award under his belt, but in a short season, he's a strong bet to prove his all-around value, especially if the Rockies surprise over 60 games.
Pete Alonso (+2500)
Voters love homers, and nobody is expected to hit more of them in this league than last year's NL home run leader. Alonso hit 53 dingers as a rookie for the Mets - including 20 in his first 60 games - with 66 barrels on the year, which was the fourth-most in the majors.
He'll need to round out his game to merit real MVP consideration, and there are legitimate concerns about whether he can replicate his power pace from 2019. But if Alonso can match even 90% of what he did last year, he's a worthwhile value at 25-1.
Jacob deGrom (+4000)
What more does deGrom need to do to earn the elusive pitcher MVP? The Mets ace spun a magnificent 1.70 ERA with a ridiculous 1.98 FIP in 2018, and he followed it up in 2019 by leading the NL in strikeouts (255) and recording a 1.44 ERA over the second half of the season.
He earned Cy Young honors in both years and drew MVP votes, too, but his so-so W-L record has consistently held him back. With New York's offense improved heading into 2020, this could finally be the year for deGrom, whose price begs a long-shot bet.
Josh Bell (+5500)
Here's an MVP line for you: .338/.398/.692 with 18 home runs and 56 RBIs. That was Bell's resume through the first 60 games of last season, when he flirted with a .400 average and led the league in nearly every power metric in May.
Bell is one of the NL's streakiest hitters, but in a shortened season, those are the perfect types of batting profiles to bet high on at long odds. No player offers a better return on investment in a 60-game sprint than the Pirates slugger.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.