Best bets to win AL MVP: Buy Lindor with Trout in limbo
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
We're just under a week away from the start of the MLB season and still don't know how many games Mike Trout intends to play for the Angels. It hasn't affected the betting market much, though, as the three-time MVP remains the runaway favorite to win the award again, leaving plenty of value on the competition.
Here are the odds to win AL MVP (shorter than 50-1) with our best bets in the field:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Mike Trout | +195 |
| Aaron Judge | +950 |
| Francisco Lindor | +1200 |
| Alex Bregman | +1500 |
| Anthony Rendon | +1600 |
| Matt Chapman | +1800 |
| Gleyber Torres | +2000 |
| Rafael Devers | +2000 |
| Shohei Ohtani | +2000 |
| Jose Ramirez | +2500 |
| Josh Donaldson | +2500 |
| DJ LeMahieu | +3000 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | +3000 |
| Yoan Moncada | +3000 |
| Austin Meadows | +3500 |
| Gerrit Cole | +3500 |
| Carlos Correa | +4000 |
| George Springer | +4000 |
| J.D. Martinez | +4000 |
| Jose Altuve | +4000 |
| Marcus Semien | +4000 |
| Xander Boegarts | +4000 |
| Yasmani Grandal | +4000 |
| Eloy Jimenez | +4800 |
| Joey Gallo | +4800 |
| Matt Olson | +4800 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +4800 |
Francisco Lindor (+1200)
Count the folks at Fangraphs among those buying the MVP hype on Lindor, who's projected to post a .289/.354/.532 slash line and boast the second-best defensive rating (5.5) in baseball. That would be good enough for a 2.2 fWAR in this shortened season, third-best in the AL.
With Trout (personal) and Aaron Judge (injury) both potentially unavailable, Lindor is an easy call among the favorites. The biggest issue is the possibility of a trade - no MVP has switched teams midseason - but if he plays as well as projected, the Indians would be foolish to deal him.
DJ LeMahieu (+3000)
In a campaign when hitters could struggle to find an early rhythm, few are as safe of a bet as LeMahieu. He's batted .300 in four of the last five years and is a career .297 hitter or better in every month of the season.
His consistency last year garnered him a fourth-place MVP finish behind a .327/.375/.518 effort and steady infield defense, and he could be even better in the field as he settles into an everyday second-base role. If the Yankees run away with the AL like some predict, LeMahieu is a great bet at long odds.
J.D. Martinez (+4000)
Why do we continue to sleep on Martinez as a legit MVP candidate? The Red Sox slugger finished 14th in OPS (.939) last season after ranking third the year before (1.031), and Steamer projections place him fifth (.955) this year. He's also collected MVP votes in four of the last five seasons - including a fourth-place finish in 2018 - yet he's tied for the 17th-longest odds.
Yes, he's a DH, which seriously hurts his candidacy. He's also in a perfect position to prove his value by carrying his team to the playoffs in the post-Mookie Betts era. At 40-1 odds, it's well worth a shot.
Joey Gallo (+4800)
If Gallo is ever going to post an MVP-worthy season, now is the time. A 60-game campaign should help level the playing field for the Rangers star, who hit 22 home runs in just 70 games with an eye-popping 27.1 barrels per batted ball event, which easily led the majors (min. 100 BBE).
Gallo earned an All-Star nod for his efforts in his shortened season and could take the next step in an officially truncated one this year. His team's success could hurt him, but at this price, the upside is tantalizing.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.