MLB home run leader odds, analysis: Judge, Soto open as favorites

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At this time last year, you couldn't even find odds for Pete Alonso to lead Major League Baseball in home runs.

Yet the New York Mets slugger burst onto the scene in his debut campaign with a league-leading 53 homers, finishing just ahead of Eugenio Suarez (80-1), Jorge Soler (300-1), and Cody Bellinger (80-1).

In what's truly a wide-open race every season, there's a ton of value to be had in MLB's home run market. Here's a look at the betting favorites to lead the league in long balls this year.

Only displaying players with odds 50-1 or shorter

Aaron Judge and World Series hero Juan Soto are tied atop the oddsboard. Judge, who was limited to 102 and 112 games over the last two years, still posted back-to-back campaigns with 27 home runs, while Soto hit a modest career-high 34 in 2019.

Behind them, three-time American League MVP Mike Trout and 2019 homer leader Alonso are level at 12-1. Trout's never even led the American League in dingers, while the last player to pace MLB in moonshots in consecutive seasons was Jose Bautista in 2010 and 2011.

None of the favorites appear to be worth backing at their current prices, and there isn't much value until we get further down the board.

Christian Yelich hit 44 home runs last season despite missing the final month, which works out to a 53-homer pace over a full slate of games - matching Alonso's 2019 total. Yelich sits at 16-1 along with 2017 home run leader Giancarlo Stanton and 2019 National League MVP Bellinger.

Unlisted in the chart above and sitting at 80-1 is Nelson Cruz, who will turn 40 this season. He offers unique value after smacking 41 long balls last season. The Minnesota Twins designated hitter finished second across MLB in xISO - which measures a batter's raw power - and first in average exit velocity.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.