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World Series odds update: Brewers, A's among biggest movers

Dylan Buell / Getty Images Sport / Getty

With a little over a month left in the MLB regular season, the World Series oddsboard is constantly shuffling to stay ahead of playoff hopefuls and surging long shots. That means even a seemingly minor series can have a major effect on teams' futures odds - as was the case this past weekend.

Five of the more compelling odds movements came among wild-card candidates, with three seeing their prices shortened and two seeing longer odds. Is there value on any of those five teams? Let's take a closer look.

Odds from Westgate LV SuperBook; movement since Friday

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Milwaukee Brewers (40-1 to 30-1)

The Brewers' odds finally moved in their favor following a five-game winning streak and consecutive series victories over Pittsburgh and Texas, which brought them within a half-game of the second NL wild-card spot.

Somehow, the Brew Crew did all that without NL MVP candidate Christian Yelich, who missed the final four games of his team's winning streak and saw just one at-bat in Sunday's loss. His back injury is a legitimate cause for concern going forward - but so are the team's underlying numbers despite the recent run of success.

For instance, Milwaukee's ERA has improved since the All-Star break (4.63 to 4.51), but advanced numbers suggest its pitching has actually worsened with a below-average BABIP (.277) in that span. Meanwhile, the Brewers' hitting numbers are down despite a higher BABIP (.315) than before.

Yes, a team that opened at 12-1 may look like a steal at 30-1. However, regression likely looms for this group, meaning it's wiser to wait or stay away completely.

New York Mets (40-1 to 30-1)

We discussed the Mets in detail last week on the heels of their stellar 14-game run. Then they won a thrilling weekend series against the Washington Nationals, and their odds saw predictable movement in their favor.

At this point, bettors may have finally sapped the remaining value on America's hottest team. New York is improving in late-game situations but still features an inconsistent lineup and consistently troublesome defense. And, as of Monday, the Mets were still a game out of the playoff picture.

At 40-1, New York had value. But at 30-1, tied for the ninth-shortest odds in MLB, it's better to look elsewhere.

Oakland Athletics (60-1 to 40-1)

We've seen this story before. After being left for dead earlier in the year, the Athletics have surged into the AL wild-card race, sitting just 1 1/2 games behind Tampa Bay and six games ahead of Boston for the final spot.

The A's have done so by going 17-10 since the break, but they haven't strung consecutive wins together in over a week, splitting each of the last six games on their Chicago road trip. Oakland was 40-1 a week ago and saw a bump to 60-1 before winning two of three against the White Sox, so the team's price could remain volatile for futures bettors.

Despite their recent run, the A's have only a 1.7 percent chance to win the World Series, according to Baseball Reference, which equates to real odds of roughly 58-1. If their odds jump to 60-1 again, they could be worth taking, but don't get caught on the wrong side of a shifting price.

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Washington Nationals (30-1 to 40-1)

After losing their weekend series to the Mets, the Nationals essentially flipped spots with their division rival on the oddsboard.

Washington's pitching has tailed off since the break, contributing to a pedestrian 15-13 record. However, the Nats' lineup is hitting the ball better and harder than before, while the team's schedule hasn't done it any favors.

That could change soon. Washington will face three of MLB's five worst teams (Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Miami) in August after meeting two regression candidates this week in Cincinnati and Milwaukee.

Meanwhile, the Nationals still lead the NL wild-card race, and their price could shrink with some easy wins this month. At 40-1 - tied for the 12th-shortest odds on the board - there's clear value here.

Philadelphia Phillies (60-1 to 80-1)

It might be time to officially label Year 1 of the Bryce Harper experience in Philadelphia a failure.

The Phillies are only two games out of the playoff picture, but they've been steadily declining since the All-Star Game, going 13-15 with five losses in their last six. Ace Jake Arrieta may be done for the year, which would deal a significant blow to a below-average staff, while Philly's lineup has featured a bottom-six OPS (.705) since the break.

The case for bettors would be the same one that manager Gabe Kapler made before Sunday's loss: that division foes Washington and New York were written off before recent winning streaks. Yet the Phillies have looked dead since June with no real signs of life. Pull the plug.

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