Home Run Derby: Cheat sheet, bets to consider

Betting on the Home Run Derby often feels like throwing darts in the dark. Finding an edge in an eight-player, formatted event rather than an individual game might be more difficult, but we'll wring out every bit of relevant information pertaining to the showcase to help you find your dog in the fight.

Here are the odds list for this year's derby, as well as notes, advanced metrics, and best bets to consider:

Home Run Derby odds

Head-to-head matchup odds

Notes

- Only two favorites have taken home the award since 2010: Giancarlo Stanton in 2016 and Bryce Harper last season. There's certainly value to be had down the board.

- Progressive Field in Cleveland isn't known to be a home run park but there's a clear advantage for left-handed hitters, per RotoGrinders. That should bode well for Yelich and Pederson. The switch-hitting Santana, who will hit from the left side of the plate, is homering every 13.4 at-bats as a lefty as opposed to every 25.3 at-bats as a righty this season. Another switch-hitter, Bell, is demolishing the ball from both sides, homering every 12.9 at-bats from the left and 11.1 from the right.

Average launch angle leaders

Bregman: 20.3
Acuna: 15.0
Pederson: 14.7
Alonso: 13.7
Yelich: 11.4
Bell: 10.9
Santana: 8.7
Guerrero: 6.5

Average exit velocity leaders

Yelich: 93.9
Bell: 93.4
Santana: 92.4
Pederson: 91.5
Alonso: 91.1
Acuna: 91.0
Guerrero: 89.5
Bregman: 88.9

Best bets

Guerrero over Yelich (+145)

I won't take Guerrero's sluggish start into account because he'll be reverting from major-league pitching to essentially batting practice, so we should see the rookie in true form. Guerrero only has eight home runs entering July 4 but he's not being cheated: He's tied for eighth in the majors in average home run distance at 421 feet. I'm not sure he has the stamina win the whole thing, but I do believe he offers value at +145 to make it out of the first round.

Pederson over Bregman (+100)

I would have loved taking Pederson outright, but he scares the heck out of me. The problem is that he exerts so much effort into his swing. It didn't hurt him when he finished as a runner-up in the 2015 derby, but it's difficult to gamble on a player who empties the tank while not necessarily mashing the ball. (Pederson is averaging 397 feet per home run this season.) Instead of taking him to win the whole thing, take even money on getting out of the first round against Bregman.

Bell outright (15-2)

Some shops peg Bell the front-runner for the showcase and this is the best number you'll find. He's a bigger hitter at 6-foot-2, 245 pounds, so there's some concern with endurance, but he has the raw power to effortlessly park homers - three have traveled 460 feet or farther this season. He'll also benefit from hitting from the left side.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.