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Despite deGrom's brilliance, don't bet on extension with Mets

Jim McIsaac / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Jacob deGrom reported for spring training Tuesday and immediately put the Mets on the clock, with an industry source confirming to the New York Post that the venerated right-hander will cease extension talks with the club as of Opening Day.

Shortly thereafter, Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen - who represented deGrom as recently as last year - ably downplayed the situation.

"This concept of an Opening Day deadline for a contract (extension) is a mutual understanding," Van Wagenen told reporters, including Newsday's Tim Healey. "There's no reason for a distraction to carry into the regular season, and we will continue to have dialogue over the course of this spring and see where those discussions lead."

"We know how important he is to the organization."

Indeed, deGrom - who will make $17 million in 2019 in his third year of arbitration eligibility - is paramount right now. Van Wagenen has committed considerable resources in his attempt to transform the Mets from a fourth-place club into a postseason contender in the span of one offseason, and his vision almost certainly won't come to fruition without another stellar campaign from the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner.

Van Wagenen's wheelings and dealings, however, have implicitly outlined a narrow window for contention, and considering deGrom's age and contract status, and the cesspool that is free agency today, those discussions the GM alluded to may well amount to nothing.

As brilliant as he is, deGrom is kind of old - he turns 31 in June - and remains under contract for two more years, and the Mets could easily be rebuilding again following the 2020 campaign when Yoenis Cespedes, Jed Lowrie, and Jason Vargas hit free agency with deGrom. Zack Wheeler and Todd Frazier, incidentally, are currently heading into their final seasons under contract.

If the Mets haven't undertaken a full rebuild by then, they'll almost certainly be tearing it down the following offseason, as Noah Syndergaard, Michael Conforto, Steven Matz, Jeurys Familia, and Wilson Ramos all hit free agency after 2021. (Ramos has a club option for the 2021 campaign and could be cut loose the year prior.)

And while it's certainly possible a rebuilding Mets club would want deGrom around for his age-33 season and beyond, there doesn't appear to be any real urgency to get an extension done given the organization's medium-term outlook.

Even if there is mutual interest, though, it seems unlikely deGrom and the Mets find agreeable terms, and not only because free agency is wreaking havoc on the value of marginal wins. DeGrom's profile is without precedent: never before has a starter this good made it to 30 years old with so few innings to his name.

Since 1920, only seven other pitchers have made at least 100 starts through their age-30 seasons while managing a sub-3.00 FIP and a WHIP below 1.10. The four retired pitchers are enshrined at Cooperstown.

Player FIP WHIP ERA+ IP▼
Tom Seaver 2.58 1.06 143 2447.2
Fergie Jenkins 2.94 1.09 122 2303.2
Juan Marichal 2.91 1.05 132 2250
Clayton Kershaw 2.64 1.01 159 2096.1
Pedro Martinez 2.67 1.01 172 1892.1
Chris Sale 2.86 1.03 144 1482.1
Stephen Strasburg 2.91 1.09 129 1229.2
Jacob deGrom 2.81 1.07 143 897.2

(Courtesy: Baseball-Reference Play Index)

Notably, deGrom's thrown significantly fewer innings than anyone in that decorated group, even Sale and Strasburg, both of whom are only now heading into their respective age-30 seasons. His age be damned, then, nobody could fault him for invoking Strasburg's seven-year, $175-million extension with the Washington Nationals - signed six weeks into the 2016 campaign - as a starting point in extension talks, with the expectation that any deal would effectively start this year:

Player IP ERA+ FIP WHIP
deGrom (2014-2018) 897.2 143 2.81 1.07
Strasburg (2010-2015) 776.2 125 2.83 1.09

On the other hand, nobody could fault the Mets for balking at that asking price. Only one of the dozen extensions worth upward of $80 million signed by starters since 2001 went to a pitcher as old as deGrom, and the new market realities are no less disconcerting for the two-time All-Star. Patrick Corbin, who was widely considered the top starter available this winter, commanded only $140 million in free agency, and he's two years younger than deGrom and theoretically had multiple suitors driving up his price.

The Mets have too many ways to extract value out of their righty without committing long-term financial resources to him. If things go haywire early this season, the Mets can trade him in July and recoup some of the prospect capital they relinquished in the Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano trade. Alternatively, they can trade him next offseason or at next year's deadline for a decent haul. And, of course, they can just let deGrom play out the final two years of his deal and extend him a qualifying offer following the 2020 campaign, netting a draft pick when he signs elsewhere.

As such, this ostensibly mutual deadline with deGrom isn't going to get the Mets to do something they aren't comfortable with. And that means an extension probably isn't happening.

Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter @birenball.

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