Predicting when big free-agent moves will start based on the last decade

Free agency has been open for nearly three weeks, and so far, it's been a slow process.

While Justin Upton re-signed with the Los Angeles Angels and Masahiro Tanaka decided not to opt out of his contract with the New York Yankees, the market has been quiet, with a few minor-league deals having been agreed upon, but nothing else of significance.

The GM meetings concluded earlier this week, which is usually the precursor to moves being made, so things could pick up soon.

With things quieter than in years past, let's try to predict when the first big-league deal will go down, when the first multi-year deal will drop, and when the likely outcome date for the largest free-agent contract will be.

First, here's a look at the last 10 years of free agency, pinpointing when the first big-league deal was signed, when the first multi-year deal was agreed upon, and who landed the largest contract in each year.

2006-07

(Photo courtesy: Action Images)

First MLB deal signed

First notable multi-year deal signed

Largest contract signed (by dollar amount)

2007-08

(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)

First MLB deal signed

First notable multi-year deal signed

Largest contract signed

2008-09

(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)

First MLB deal signed

First notable multi-year deal signed

Largest contract signed

2009-10

(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)

First MLB deal signed

First notable multi-year deal signed

Largest contract signed

2010-11

(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)

First MLB deal signed and first notable multi-year deal signed

Largest contract signed

2011-12

(Photo courtesy: Action Images)

First MLB deal signed

First notable multi-year deal signed

Largest contract signed

2012-13

(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)

First MLB deal signed and first notable multi-year deal signed

Largest contract signed

2013-14

(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)

First MLB deal signed

First notable multi-year deal signed

Largest contract signed

2014-15

(Photo courtesy: Action Images)

First MLB deal signed

First notable multi-year deal signed

Largest contract signed (by dollar amount)

2015-16

(Photo courtesy: Action Images)

First MLB deal signed

First notable multi-year deal signed

Largest contract signed

2016-17

(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)

First MLB deal signed

First notable multi-year deal signed

Largest contract signed

Based on the averages of the first major-league deal being signed (Nov. 7), the first multi-year contract being inked (Nov. 14), and when the biggest free agents usually sign (anywhere between Nov. 25 and Jan. 10, but usually in the second week of December), it appears free agency is behind by about 11 days compared to the past 10 years.

The data shows the first big-league deal should have happened already, while multi-year deals should already be in play as well. Expect both of these to come before the end of the month. Also, based on the evidence above, the first deal will likely go to a catcher, reliever, or utility player, while the past two seasons suggest a multi-year deal will be handed to a starter.

One thing appears to be certain: Don't expect one of the big guys (Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, J.D. Martinez) to sign until December, when they can grab some major coin just in time for Christmas.