Forecasting Canada's FIBA World Cup roster

It's no secret Canada's representation at the NBA level has steadily increased over the past decade. After this year's draft saw a record-breaking six Canadians selected, there could be 20-plus players with ties to the Great White North hooping in the Association next season. That figure would easily rank first among nations outside the U.S.

The recent influx of talent hasn't translated to success at the world's premier international tournaments so far, though. Save for a silver medal in basketball's Olympic debut in 1936 - a tournament that was played on grass courts and produced a 19-8 score in the final against the U.S. - Canada's senior men's team has never medaled at the Olympics or the FIBA World Cup.

But with a glut of NBA-caliber personnel and Nick Nurse assuming head coaching duties following his title-winning season with the Toronto Raptors, there's plenty of reason for optimism.

Canada Basketball will look to end its lengthy streak of non-podium finishes at the FIBA Basketball World Cup in China later this summer. But first, it must pare down the list of nearly 30 preliminary roster invitees into a definitive 12-man unit.

Who's out?

From the jump, Canada will be without three of its most prominent NBA players.

Having not suited up for the national team since the 2015 FIBA Americas tournament, Minnesota Timberwolves wing Andrew Wiggins will continue to keep his distance. Wiggins initially committed to play this summer before backing out, leaving Canada with a considerable hole at small forward.

Though Wiggins' stagnant development in the NBA has been a magnet for criticism, there's no denying losing a wing with a career scoring average of 19.4 points per game is a blow. His absence will have a trickle-down effect on the rest of Canada's wing rotation.

Cleveland Cavaliers big man Tristan Thompson also elected to withdraw from World Cup consideration. It was a surprising decision. The 28-year-old has consistently answered Canada's call - even when the Cavs made four straight Finals appearances from 2015-18. With that in mind, Thompson is justified in wanting a summer off, especially after injuries held him to just 43 games this past NBA season.

NBA rookie RJ Barrett will reportedly join the duo on the sidelines as he recovers from a mild calf strain suffered during summer league. The loss of the 19-year-old, who was drafted third overall by the New York Knicks in the spring, is another blow to Canada's wing depth, which currently consists of Dillon Brooks and Melvin Ejim.

Who's in?

Aside from the trio mentioned above, none of Canada's remaining top players have bowed out. That includes longtime national team point guard Cory Joseph of the Sacramento Kings, score-first guard Jamal Murray of the Denver Nuggets, Miami Heat stretch-big Kelly Olynyk, Dallas Mavericks pick-and-roll maestro Dwight Powell, San Antonio Spurs forward Trey Lyles, and journeyman shooting guard Nik Stauskas.

Several Canadians with two years of NBA experience or fewer could also be pressed into larger roles. Chief among them are Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Orlando Magic center Khem Birch, Raptors big man Chris Boucher, and the aforementioned Brooks of the Memphis Grizzlies.

That group doesn't even include 2019 draftees Nickeil Alexander-Walker of the New Orleans Pelicans or Memphis Grizzlies big man and summer league MVP Brandon Clarke. It's not uncommon for NBA teams to request their recently drafted blue-chippers focus on their upcoming rookie seasons rather than play for their national programs, but even with their relative inexperience, each would be a positive addition to Canada's depth.

Add in a number of international players with G League experience and there's no shortage of options for Nurse and his staff.

Projecting the roster

Without further ado, here's a projection of how Canada's current 12-man roster could shake out:

This five-man starting unit features a little bit of everything. Joseph and Powell offer a traditional pick-and-roll punch. Murray, Brooks, and Olynyk have all shot close to or better than 36 percent on 3-pointers for their careers. Murray doubles as a fearless scorer off the dribble, even if his scoring per possession in isolation currently grades out as average.

Whether he starts at the point or comes off the bench, Gilgeous-Alexander will play a significant role for this team. At 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot wingspan, he's a matchup nightmare for more traditionally proportioned guards, forcing opposing defenses to cover him with a wing. With 73 starts as a rookie for a playoff team in the Los Angeles Clippers, he's also far more polished than most 21-year-olds.

Ejim is an interesting case. Though he hasn't appeared in an NBA game, the 28-year-old has plenty of international experience, including 28 caps with the Canadian senior men's team. At 6-foot-7, he has the size to match up with opposing wings - something Canada's guard- and big-heavy talent pool otherwise lacks.

Shayok replenishes some of the depth lost at the wing. The Ottawa native is a gifted scorer and can play at the two- or three-spot. He was drafted 54th overall by the Philadelphia 76ers this year after capturing first-team All-Big 12 honors and receiving an AP All-American honorable mention following his senior season at Iowa State.

Other frontcourt reserves include Lyles, Birch, and Boucher - who, it should be noted, was part of Nurse's title-winning Raptors squad this year. They bring the size and muscle needed to counter the traditionally imposing frontcourts of Canada's group-stage opponents - Australia, Lithuania, and Senegal.

With Barrett forced to forgo playing in China this summer, there are a couple of end-of-the-bench solutions Canada could tab to maintain perimeter depth. Brady Heslip and Naz Mitrou-Long both have G League experience, with the latter also making 15 appearances with the Utah Jazz over the past two seasons. Neither is a perfect fit for a team that should have two (or all three) of Joseph, Murray, and Gilgeous-Alexander on the court at any given time. But, as with any nation in this tournament other than the U.S., the best strategy is usually to bring the best talent available and figure out the rest on the fly.