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EPL Matchweek 8 best bets: Newcastle to best Bournemouth at home

LINDSEY PARNABY / AFP / Getty

After a week off, 14 of the EPL's 20 teams are set to return to action in what should be an exciting weekend of games.

Let's take a look at three that stand out from the pack as we look to build on what's been a very successful start to the campaign.

Southampton (+240) @ Aston Villa (+105)
Sep. 16, 3 p.m. EST

Aston Villa will be feeling pretty good about themselves following a draw against Manchester City last time out. They'll no doubt be pushing for a home victory against Southampton to start their climb up the table, but I'm not so sure they'll get it.

Villa haven't played well at either end of the pitch this season. They rank 19th in expected goals for, 14th in expected goals against, and 17th in expected points. They're not a good side.

I don't think they'll be able to generate a ton against a Southampton team that plays things very tight, especially on the road.

Southampton rank 14th in expected goals generated through three road games. Their opponents haven't generated many chances, either.

The Saints sit third in expected goals against, behind only Manchester City and Wolverhampton.

After losing in a gritty affair against Wolves, I think Southampton will look to tighten the screws and grind out at least a point on the road.

I don't see either team generating many chances or gaining separation in this game, which means there's value in backing a draw.

Bet: Draw (+250)

Bournemouth (+550) @ Newcastle (-220)
Sep. 17, 10:00 p.m. EST

Newcastle have really impressed me in the early going this campaign. While one win through six games is hardly something to write home about, it's important to put their results into context.

They've already played Manchester City, Liverpool, Brighton, Wolverhampton, and Crystal Palace. Claiming points in five of six matches while playing such a difficult schedule is no small feat.

Newcastle's expected goal numbers suggest those points were well-deserved. In fact, they've underperformed - seven points versus 8.5 expected - based on how they've fared in terms of xG generation and suppression.

The Magpies look good via the eye test and the numbers. With Alexander Isak now in the mix and their schedule set to soften, Newcastle are a team poised for a breakout sooner than later.

All signs point toward that run starting with Bournemouth. The recently promoted side ranks dead last in expected points and 18th in expected goals allowed, and Bournemouth have already sacked their manager.

Newcastle have only faced one team with poor defensive metrics to date. They beat Nottingham Forest 2-0 while generating 23 shots and winning the on-target battle 10-0.

I expect a similar result at home to Bournemouth.

Bet: Newcastle -1.5 (+125)

Arsenal (-125) @ Brentford (+310)
Sep. 18, 7:00 a.m. EST

Arsenal have gotten off to a fantastic start this season, winning five of six games while posting strong underlying metrics. Their expected goal outputs suggest they've overachieved a little bit, though, with their process coming closer to matching Brighton and Liverpool than Manchester City.

The Gunners seem poised for a little bit of regression. That's not to say they're going to drop points left and right, but they won't continue winning at such a high rate, especially against good teams.

Brentford classifies as such. The Bees sit sixth in expected points through six games and rank in the top half of the table in xG generation and xG prevention. They're solid at both ends.

They've also played their best football at home. Brentford have already beaten Manchester United by four and Leeds United by three at Gtech Community Stadium, and they generated 19 shots in their draw against Everton.

I think they'll play Arsenal very tough. While the Gunners have more talent, Brentford are well-managed and will have the home crowd behind them.

This should be a very close affair. Once again, there's value in backing a draw.

Bet: Draw (+280)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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