EPL Matchweek 7 best bets: Leicester City to bag 1st win
We're coming off our first losing week of the EPL season. What started promising with a Brentford win quickly went south.
Tottenham predictably exposed Fulham's defensive woes but conceded late and couldn't cover their 1.5 goal spread. Despite a tight affair in terms of expected goals, Manchester United and Arsenal didn't play to a draw.
We'll look to rebound with three bets for the seventh matchweek of the 2022-23 season.
Chelsea (-130) @ Fulham (+320)
Sep 10, 7:30 a.m. EST
Chelsea haven't played up to their potential in the early going of this season. A rift between former manager Thomas Tuchel, the higher-ups in the organization, and some unhappy players likely played a part in that.
On paper, the Blues are a very talented and deep side that should be able to seriously contend for a top-four spot.
I expect they'll be rejuvenated under a new leader in Graham Potter, who has made a career of extracting a lot out of a little. He's no doubt champing at the bit to work with a squad as talented as this.
While Fulham are a team you have to respect offensively, they've been putrid without the ball. They've given up 11.82 expected goals through six games, which is more than every team but Nottingham Forest.
They can't defend a lick right now, and Chelsea have the firepower to take advantage.
Look for them to grind out their fourth game of the season in what should be an exciting affair.
Bet: Chelsea (-130)
Aston Villa (+180) @ Leicester City (+145)
Sep 10, 10:00 a.m. EST
Leicester City haven't played well by any stretch of the imagination, but their standing in the table might be a little harsh. They've picked up just one point through six games, putting them three points back of their closest competitors.
They've accumulated 4.15 expected points, meaning they haven't necessarily gotten the results they deserve, even if those still aren't overly impressive.
Leicester have played a lot of good teams - Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea, Brighton, etc. - so a home date against Aston Villa is one they're hoping can alleviate some pressure.
The numbers certainly suggest Villa are vulnerable. They've been pummelled over their last four games, losing the expected goal battle 7.97-1.68. Tough schedule or not, that's a mind-numbingly large differential. They've generated 0.42 xG per game while allowing nearly 2.0.
Leicester haven't played well at either end of the pitch, but their offense has struggled most. A date with Villa could be just what they need to find themselves a little bit and get their first win of the campaign.
Bet: Leicester (+145)
Newcastle (+180) @ West Ham (+145)
Sep 11, 9:00 a.m. EST
West Ham sit 18th in the league table, but they really haven't played that poorly lately.
They rank ninth in expected points over the last four contests, amassing 5.94 while only claiming four. Their offensive game hasn't necessarily been where it needs to be, but they've quietly played very stout defense.
West Ham have conceded just 3.56 expected goals over the last four fixtures. Only Manchester City, Tottenham, and Arsenal - the top three sides in the table - have fared better defensively during that stretch.
The schedule hasn't done them any favors, but Newcastle bagged seven goals through six games. Alexander Isak's transfer should help breathe life into the attack. However, for now, the Magpies are a good but not great side that West Ham should keep in check.
Back the Hammers to grind out a win at home at a fair price.
Bet: West Ham (+145)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.