3 up, 3 down: Evaluating team trends around the NHL
I’ve never known anybody who wants the good news before the bad, so before we get to the teams that deserve gold stars, let’s start with those trending the wrong way.
3 down
The Los Angeles Kings
The Kings are currently 4-1-1 and on the verge of (likely) speedbagging a seriously bad Sabres team and a depleted Columbus lineup at home. So, 6-1-1, we’ll say.
But this is a team that’s built their success in past seasons on being a dominant puck possession team, and this year their numbers are ugly.
To date they’re fourth worst in Corsi, and are just generally getting outshot badly - they’re averaging 36.0 shots against per game, while only creating 25.2. Thing might look worse if Jonathan Quick wasn’t off to such a great start.
The shot discrepancy is partially due to sagging defensively while drubbing the Jets and Oilers, sure, but there should at least be some concern that the absence of Jake Muzzin (injury) and Willie Mitchell (he’s in Florida), combined with an aging Robyn Regehr and Matt Greene has left them a little softer on the back than the Kings of old. Brayden McNabb won’t be on the top pair all year (they hope), but the upcoming absence of Slava Voynov means their early issues could hang around longer than they’d hope.
Dallas Stars
The Stars were the sexy pick to be a powerhouse this year, and I was among the horde stampeding toward the bandwagon. The only glaring deficiency was their back-end, but it was easy to let their forward talent blind you.
They’re 2-1-2 through five games, which is all well and good, but they’ve given up the third most shot attempts against per game, and that isn’t. That's a big part of the reason they've been on the wrong side of the puck possession battle in general.
For all the offensive punch of guys like Ales Hemsky and Jason Spezza, they were never going to make the team better defensively, and in the brutal Central (which has only gotten tougher with Nashville looking legit), giving up too many chances could bury them. To top it all off, they just lost one of their top-six for the season in Patrik Nemeth, and will be replacing him with Jamie Oleksiak, he of 24 NHL games.
The Stars defensive woes could heap an awful lot of pressure on Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, and Kari Lehtonen.
Calgary Flames
Everyone is loving the plucky Calgary Flames, who are undeniably better than most thought they would be. But let’s not get too fired up here, kids. They’re getting thumped in every analytic out there, they’re rocking a 103 PDO (which means they’ve been getting a few breaks), and outside of the Miracle on Madison™ when they beat the Blackhawks, their wins are against the Oilers, the Predators in a shootout, and the Jets.
Simmer.
4-3-0 is better than they hoped to start, and they certainly are going to be more pesky than most thought, but all it really means is they’ve gotten off to the worst start of the (unintentionally!) tanking teams.
3 Up
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers aren’t as bad as their 0-5-1 start indicated. Through six games they had a comically bad PDO (90.8), which basically means everything they shot was getting stopped (that can’t last) and their opponents were scoring on a crazy frequent amount of their shots (that can’t last). As we saw against Tampa Bay on Monday, those things eventually even out.
The Oilers underlying numbers are vastly improved, so while they’re in tough in the Western Conference after a bad start, this isn’t a team that has a shot at Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel.
Minnesota Wild
The Wild are good now. I know, it’s weird - I’m used to them being entirely average too - but they really are. Yes, they’re only 2-2-0 through four games, and they’ve lost two straight. But they’ve only given up four goals in four games, they’re second in the league to only the Blackhawks in shot attempt differential (they’ve controlled near 60% of those), and their roster has some shiny young talent in Jonas Brodin, Charlie Coyle, Mikael Granlund, Nino Niederreiter and a few others, to go with the name players.
If Darcy Kuemper can be league average this year, they’re going to make that Central Division even more difficult.
Philadelphia Flyers
Through five games, the Flyers are 7th in the Metro, but that’s not who they are. So far this season they’re out-shooting their opponents and getting unlucky. This is a deep team up front that isn’t going to fade into the league’s basement.
The raw deal: did you see their schedule to kick off the year? Until November gets going, it’s pure unadulterated hell.
Those first 10 opponents could very well comprise the league's top 10 when the dust settles after 82 games apiece. Maybe it’s just missing the Sharks? Either way, what a way to get the year rolling.
The Flyers are badly lacking on the back-end and have league average goaltending. But if they can come out of this 10-game stretch 3-7 without making a monumental error in a panic trade, they’ll be interesting to watch over the next 72 games.