Breaking down the (early) NHL playoff picture
At the conclusion of Tuesday's jam-packed 12-game schedule, NHL teams teams have anywhere from 11 to 14 games left to play. While there's still much to be determined in terms of playoff qualification and seeding, the picture is getting clearer every day.
What follows is a look at each team's chances of making the playoffs prior to game played on March 19 (as per sportsclubstats.com).
Note: Teams with a star next to them currently hold wild card spots. As per sportsclubstats, these percentages are based on a weighted method that takes the opponents record and home-ice advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win.
Also, "Out" or "0" does not necessarily mean mathematically eliminated; rather, in the millions of times the season could be played out, the team in question would never made the playoffs (likewise for "In" and "100').
Therefore, these numbers are accurate enough to be a useful, interesting tool, but can't be taken as gospel.
Atlantic Division
Team | Points | Game Remaining | Playoff Chances |
---|---|---|---|
Boston Bruins | 99 | 13 | In |
Tampa Bay Lightning | 81 | 14 | 99.2 |
Montreal Canadiens | 83 | 12 | 97.4 |
*Toronto Maple Leafs | 80 | 12 | 75.9 |
Detroit Red Wings | 75 | 14 | 42.4 |
Ottawa Senators | 69 | 14 | 2.4 |
Florida Panthers | 60 | 13 | 0 |
Buffalo Sabres | 46 | 13 | Out |
The top three teams in the Atlantic are virtual locks, while the Red Wings kept their hopes alive with a 3-2 win over the Maple Leafs on Tuesday, although Toronto has two games in hand on Detroit. Unfortunately for the Senators, their collapse against the Canadiens on March 15 and an 8-4 loss to the Rangers on Tuesday basically quashed their hopes.
Metropolitan Division
Team | Points | Game Remaining | Playoff Chances |
---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh Penguins | 94 | 14 | 100 |
Philadelphia Flyers | 79 | 14 | 89.4 |
New York Rangers | 78 | 12 | 80.5 |
*Columbus Blue Jackets | 76 | 14 | 73.3 |
Washington Capitals | 76 | 12 | 20.9 |
New Jersey Devils | 71 | 13 | 17.3 |
Carolina Hurricanes | 69 | 13 | 1.4 |
New York Islanders | 61 | 12 | 0 |
Six teams remain alive in the Metro, and the Capitals did themselves a big favor with a 3-2 win in Anaheim on Tuesday. The Flyers and Blue Jackets hold an advantage with two games in hand on the Rangers and Capitals, while the Devils' chances appears to be fading after a loss to Boston.
Central Division
Team | Points | Game Remaining | Playoff Chances |
---|---|---|---|
St. Louis Blues | 101 | 14 | In |
Colorado Avalanche | 93 | 13 | 100 |
Chicago Blackhawks | 93 | 13 | 100 |
*Minnesota Wild | 82 | 13 | 92.6 |
Dallas Stars | 75 | 14 | 49.1 |
Winnipeg Jets | 71 | 12 | 1.2 |
Nashville Predators | 68 | 13 | 0.3 |
The big question in the Central is whether the young Stars - losers of two in a row - can hang on and grab the second wild card spot (presently held by the Coyotes, as seen below). The top four teams in this division are basically set, with the Avalanche and Blackhawks jockeying for home-ice advantage in their eventual first-round series.
Pacific Division
Team | Points | Game Remaining | Playoff Chances |
---|---|---|---|
Anaheim Ducks | 97 | 13 | 100 |
San Jose Sharks | 97 | 12 | 100 |
Los Angeles Kings | 82 | 13 | 98.4 |
*Phoenix Coyotes | 77 | 13 | 57 |
Vancouver Canucks | 72 | 11 | 1.4 |
Calgary Flames | 63 | 13 | 0 |
Edmonton Oilers | 59 | 12 | 0 |
While the Pacific Division crown remains up for grabs, all that's left to be decided here is the Coyotes' inclusion in the playoff picture. Winners of two in a row, Phoenix has a better chance of qualifying than Dallas, but the Stars have a game in hand.