Why Steen's $17.4M extension is a win for the Blues
On Wednesday afternoon the St. Louis Blues signed forward Alexander Steen to a three-year contract extension worth $17.4 million. The reported deal is modestly front loaded, and will include a no-trade clause.
The sexy headline is that the Blues locked up the NHL's second leading scorer this season for three years at an average cap-hit of $5.8 million. Steen is in the midst of a career year offensively, but his spiking production is a bit of a mirage.
After all, the Swedish international is shooting at a clip almost double his career average, and the Blues are cashing in on 11.6 percent of all shots they take at even-strength this season. Needless to say: over the life of his new contract, it is unlikely Steen will sustain the elite level of goal-scoring production that he's flashed this fall.
But the Blues wisely aren't going to be paying Steen like a super elite sniper.
The $5.8-million cap-hit that Steen's deal will carry beginning next season could put him outside the top-30 forward cap-hits in the league. So the Blues are paying Steen like a very good first-liner, rather than an offensive superstar. Steen's eye-popping goal totals from this season aside, the Swedish international does not really fit in the latter category, but he is certainly in the former.
Steen has played top-line minutes for the Blues since 2010-11, producing at a rate of .75 points per game while factoring in on both the power-play and the penalty-kill. Beyond the production, Steen's results have been staggering. He is, frankly, one of the league's best two-way forwards.
The Blues have outscored opponents by 42 even-strength goals over the past four seasons with Steen on the ice. Since the 2008-09 season, Steen has spent more than 200 even-strength minutes with 20 St. Louis skaters and all of them did better by attempted shot differential when they played alongside Steen. So Steen not only produces offense at a solid clip against the opposition's best players, the numbers also show he makes his teammates better.
Finally, the Blues significantly mitigated their risk by signing Steen to a deal with only a three-year term. There are still some potential pitfalls for the Blues with this contract. Steen hasn't been the most durable forward during his time in St. Louis, and it is not unusual for a player's offensive production to dip as they enter their early thirties.
But the Blues haven't committed to paying Steen past age 32. And even if Steen accrues some diminishing returns offensively as he gets older, or sustains any significant injuries - this deal won't cripple St. Louis' long-term salary-cap situation.
By keeping Steen from hitting the open market, minimizing the long-term risk to the club, and locking up a quality asset at a reasonable cap-hit: the Steen extension is a massive win for Doug Armstrong and the Blues front office.