Mock Draft 3.0: Watch out for falling quarterbacks

Of the first 16 players selected in the 2011 draft, only four have failed to become Pro Bowlers. Three of those are quarterbacks Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder. The trio was overdrafted because of the fallacy that you don't have anything if you don't have a quarterback. The Titans, Jaguars and Vikings passed on superstar defenders like J.J. Watt and Robert Quinn because they believed the need for a quarterback supersedes all other needs. Oops.

NFL teams won't make the same mistake in a 2013 draft class that features high-end talent at nearly every position other than quarterback. Though a case can be made that each of the teams picking in the top five needs a quarterback, expect these teams to forego selecting a passer and instead secure an elite talent at another position. Pushed past the top five, the "big three" of Blake Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel could be in for a long wait before they hear their names called.

Where will they land? Read on for some educated guesses.

1. Houston Texans: Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina) — Clowney isn't just the best prospect in this draft class, he’s a once-in-a-decade talent in the same way Calvin Johnson and Andrew Luck were. Passing on Clowney for one of the B+ quarterbacks in this class would be like showing up to a war and saying "I don't need a machine gun, just give me a baseball bat." The Texans will come to their senses, take the truly rare player at No. 1, and find a quarterback in the second round. Clowney rushing as an outside linebacker beside J.J. Watt in Romeo Crennel's 3-4 scheme has the potential to be the most devastating defensive force the NFL has seen in a long time. Get scared, AFC South coaches. Heck, get scared, NFL coaches.

2. St. Louis Rams (from Washington): Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson) — Jeff Fisher's history clearly shows he prefers to select skill position players, not linemen, in the first round of the draft. Watkins is the best wide receiver prospect since A.J. Green and Julio Jones, and he'll make life much easier for Sam Bradford (or his successor - more on that later). The Rams traded up to select Tavon Ausin with the No. 8 overall pick a year ago, but he's more of a complementary player. Watkins can be the No. 1 receiver the Rams have lacked since Torry Holt's last season in 2008.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Khalil Mack (OLB, Buffalo) — The Jaguars are in dire need of a quarterback, but this is a team that's committed to building the right way. Here, that means staying true to their board and selecting the best player available. Mack is a versatile weapon who can be a disruptor rushing the passer with his hand in the ground or coming off the edge from a two-point stance. He's not too shabby dropping back into coverage, either. Gus Bradley's defensive scheme will make him a star.

4. Cleveland Browns: Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M) — The Browns are in a tough spot here. The best players available are left tackles and the Browns have no need for one. Since they can't trade down (this isn't one of those mock drafts), they opt to use this pick the next-best player available. Evans and Josh Gordon will form one of the NFL's most physically imposing receiver duos. They'll make life easier for whomever the Browns add at quarterback later in the draft.

5. Oakland Raiders: Greg Robinson (OT, Auburn) — The Raiders whiffed on securing a franchise left tackle in free agency. They get lucky here, as one falls into their laps. Robinson's upside is far beyond Jared Veldheer, Rodger Saffold or any other player the Raiders could have signed. Though Robinson is still a work in progress, he has the raw ability to become one of the best in the game at his position. Human beings aren't supposed to be so powerful and graceful at the same time.

6. Atlanta Falcons: Jake Matthews (OT, Texas A&M) — The Falcons made upgrading their offensive and defensive lines a priority in free agency, but they still lack a franchise left tackle. Matthews is a pro-ready player who will give Matt Ryan time in the pocket to carve up defenses, immediately boosting the Falcons' chances of returning to the top of the NFC.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, LSU) — Much of new Buccaneers quarterback Josh McCown's success with the Bears has been attributed to the fact that he had two excellent receivers (Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery) at his disposal. Here, the Buccaneers look to recreate that model by adding a much-needed complement to Vincent Jackson. Beckham is undersized, but he's an explosive and sure-handed receiver who deserves mention alongside Watkins and Evans as the draft's best offensive weapons.

8. Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville) — Recent talk of Bridgewater's falling draft stock is overblown - and likely the product of teams like the Vikings trying to ensure he's on the board when they pick. Bridgewater's struggles at his pro day don't matter. What matters is his college game tape, which proves he's a savvy player who demonstrates excellent toughness in the face of pressure, anticipation and timing. He's the best quarterback in this draft class.

9. Buffalo Bills: Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina) — The Bills used a first-round pick in 2013 on quarterback EJ Manuel, and the team remains fully committed to him as its franchise passer. Ebron has drawn comparisons to Vernon Davis, but it's worth noting that he's got a little Jared Cook in him, too (and that's not a great thing). This pick isn't a slam dunk, but the Bills can't pass up the opportunity to acquire a playmaking tight end for the first time in years.

10. Detroit Lions: Justin Gilbert (CB, Oklahoma State) — Lions general manager Martin Mayhew isn't scared to use a top draft pick on a raw player oozing with athletic ability. Gilbert isn't a finished product by any means, but he projects as a big, fast, playmaking corner capable of matching up with NFC North receivers like Brandon Marshall and Jordy Nelson. The Lions could certainly use such a player.

11. Tennessee Titans: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama) — The Titans don't have any glaring needs, but they lack high-end talent on both sides of the ball. Here, the Titans go with the best defensive player available. A nice benefit of acquiring Clinton-Dix is that it allows the Titans to cut ties with overpaid free safety Michael Griffin.

12. New York Giants: Zack Martin (OT/OG, Notre Dame) — The Giants' offensive line was a disaster in 2013. Martin can help minimize the pressure in Eli Manning's face and, ideally, allow Manning to regain his mojo. Martin is versatile enough to play any position on the offensive line, but the Giants should give him every opportunity to win the starting left tackle job.

13. St. Louis Rams: Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas A&M) — ​The Sam Bradford era comes to an end when the Rams look at their draft board and realize they can't pass up the only player in this draft not named Clowney with the potential to become a truly transcendent superstar. Jeff Fisher loves projects, and he'll view Manziel as a canvas on which to paint his masterpiece. "Johnny Football" joins Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick in the NFC West. Football fans win.

14. Chicago Bears: Aaron Donald (DT, Pittsburgh) — Donald appears undersized for a defensive tackle, but he doesn't play small. Instead, he regularly generates remarkable explosion off the line and penetration into the backfield. Donald is a perfect fit as a three-technique in the Bears' 4-3 defense. Alongside free agent acquisitions Jared Allen and Lamarr Houston, a defensive line that was a weakness for the Bears a year ago could become a strength.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Darqueze Dennard (CB, Michigan St.) — ​The Steelers have to find a way to get younger and better in the secondary. Selecting a player some rank as the top defensive back in this draft class is a great way to do it. Dennard lacks the physical upside of Justin Gilbert, but he may be the best pure man coverage corner in this class. He's a very physical player, too, which will win him some fans at Heinz Field.

16. Dallas Cowboys: Anthony Barr (OLB, UCLA) — The Cowboys must find a way to recreate the edge rush they lost when DeMarcus Ware departed for the Broncos. Anthony Barr isn't a player of Ware's caliber, and he isn't a perfect scheme fit, but he's the best edge rusher on the board and the Cowboys can't pass on his upside.

17. Baltimore Ravens: Marqise Lee (WR, USC) — Joe Flacco's $100-million deal is wasted money if the Ravens don't upgrade his weapons. Lee would be a top-ten pick based on his 2012 tape, but he struggled in 2013. It's the Ravens' gain, as they get a player who will draw coverage from Torrey Smith and greatly diversify the team's offensive attack.

18. New York Jets: Calvin Pryor (S, Louisville) — The Jets tried to upgrade their secondary last season, signing veteran Ed Reed after he was released by the Texans. That didn't really work out. Pryor is a hard-hitting run defender who has also demonstrated playmaking ability in coverage. 

19. Miami Dolphins: Xavier Su'a-Filo (OG, UCLA) — The Dolphins added starting left tackle Branden Albert in free agency, but their offensive line still requires upgrades. The first-round guard is never a sexy pick, but it's a selection most Dolphins fans will understand is a solid investment and, more importantly, represents a clean break from the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin fiasco.

20. Arizona Cardinals: Dee Ford (DE, Auburn) — Ford's versatility - he can play with his hand in the dirt as a 4-3 defensive end or rush off the edge as a 3-4 outside linebacker - makes him an attractive target. The Cardinals got more out of 35-year-old John Abraham than anyone expected last season, but it's time to find a stud pass rusher of the future.

21. Green Bay Packers: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE, Washington) — The Packers take another crack at obtaining the player Jermichael Finley never quite became. Seferian-Jenkins' wingspan and leaping ability can make him into the kind of red zone target Aaron Rodgers dreams about. Perhaps this pick is a reach in the first round, but Ted Thompson trusts his rankings and doesn't worry about what others think of his methods.

22. Philadelphia Eagles: Louis Nix (DT, Notre Dame) — Chip Kelly isn't done transitioning the Eagles' defense to a 3-4. A crucial piece he still lacks is a huge, blocker-absorbing nose tackle. At 6-foot-2 and 331 pounds, Nix can be that player. He'll make the rest of the Eagles' front seven better.

23. Kansas City Chiefs: Brandin Cooks (WR, Oregon St.) — Dwayne Bowe runs like a tight end at this stage of his career, and Donnie Avery isn't worthy of a starting job. Andy Reid knows he has to add speed and skill to the Chiefs' receiving corps. Cooks was named college football's top wideout in 2013 and, though he lacks ideal size, he's a burner who runs precise routes. 

24. Cincinnati Bengals: Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio State) — Roby represents great value at this slot. He fills a big need for the Bengals, too. Some draft analysts compare Roby's playing style to Leon Hall, one of the Bengals' best players (when he's healthy). Why not add a younger version of Hall to the roster?

25. San Diego Chargers: Kyle Fuller (CB, Virginia Tech) — The Chargers need to upgrade their secondary, and Fuller is a long, competitive perimeter defender who fits well in coordinator John Pagano's defense. 

26. Cleveland Browns (from Indianapolis): Blake Bortles (QB, UCF) — The Browns' decision to pass on a quarterback at No. 4 overall pays off, as the one they wanted all along is still on the board. Bortles size, mobility and arm strength are ideal for the cold, windy, physical AFC North. He will remind the Browns of a player they see twice a year: Ben Roethlisberger.

27. New Orleans Saints: Kelvin Benjamin (WR, Florida State) — The Saints' wide receiving corps is in need of an injection of youth. Marques Colston will soon be 31 (and his knees may as well be a few decades older) and the Saints have failed to develop a star wideout for Drew Brees to throw to since Colston emerged in 2006.

28. Carolina Panthers: Taylor Lewan (OT, Michigan) — Jordan Gross' somewhat unexpected retirement vaulted left tackle to the top of the Panthers' list of needs. Concerns about Lewan's character could push him down draft boards, but his upside is easily great enough for the Panthers to overlook any hesitation they may have about adding him.

29. New England Patriots: Timmy Jernigan (DT, Florida St.) — The Patriots need to add youth behind Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly. Analysts debate whether Jernigan is a better fit for a 3-4 or 4-3, but the Patriots' defensive front is malleable and Bill Belichick will figure out how to maximize his value. 

30. San Francisco 49ers: Jason Verrett (CB, TCU) — Verrett is a small cornerback entering a league that's increasingly infatuated with larger corners, but he doesn't play small. His speed and change-of-direction ability will serve him well in a division that includes offensive threats like Percy Harvin and Tavon Austin.

31. Denver Broncos: Ryan Shazier (OLB, Ohio State) — The Broncos' linebacking corps lost a few veteran players in free agency, so some retooling is in order. Shazier is an instinctive, productive player who will complement Von Miller's skill set nicely. Shazier can line up at weak side linebacker on running downs and kick inside to middle linebacker in nickel situations.

32. Seattle Seahawks: Ra'Shede Hagemen (DT, Minnesota) — The Seahawks don't have many obvious needs, but the team lost defensive linemen Red Bryant and Chris Clemons in free agency. Hageman is raw, but his upside is enticing. He's the kind of player the Seahawks aren't afraid to invest in. Hageman can contribute as a rotational player as a rookie and eventually be groomed for a bigger role.