How the bad 2011 QB class could cost Bridgewater, Bortles and Manziel millions

The prevailing wisdom in the NFL draft community is that if you don't have a franchise quarterback on your roster, you do what must be done to acquire one in the draft. Usually, that means spending an early first-round pick on a passer.

The notion makes sense on the surface. Quarterback is the most important position on the field - and perhaps in all of sports. A top quarterback can make a team a Super Bowl contender for a decade. A bad quarterback can sink the fortunes of an otherwise strong team. The need for a quarterback supersedes all other needs, draft analysts say.

The 2008 Miami Dolphins were once considered the prime example of why this logic is necessary. The Dolphins elected to pass on selecting Matt Ryan with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2008 draft in favor of left tackle Jake Long, whom the Dolphins rated higher on their draft board. An argument can be made that the Dolphins are still suffering the ill effects of that decision today.

But does the "quarterback need trumps all" line of thinking really hold up to scrutiny?

This is the logic that led the 2007 Oakland Raiders to select JaMarcus Russell ahead of Calvin Johnson, a player widely considered to be the best non-quarterback offensive prospect in a decade. It led the 2010 St. Louis Rams to select Sam Bradford ahead of Ndamukong Suh, a player who was considered by some to be the most dominant interior pass rushing prospect this millennium.

Then, in 2011, the logic fell to pieces. Among one of the strongest draft classes in NFL history, four quarterbacks were selected in the first 12 picks. 

Of the 16 players selected in first half of the 2011 draft's first round, only four have failed to become Pro Bowlers. Three are quarterbacks.

* = Pro Bowler

The Panthers surely remain convinced their selection of Newton was the right move, but no argument can be made that the Titans, Jaguars and Vikings wouldn't be significantly better off today if they selected a player like J.J. Watt or Robert Quinn (both Defensive Player of the Year candidates in 2013) instead of Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder. 

Rather, there's a strong case to be made that Locker, Gabbert and Ponder each set their team back by nearly a half-decade. Of the six general managers and head coaches in place when the trio were drafted, only Vikings general manager Rick Spielman remains employed by his team.

First-round quarterback busts take down not only their own careers, but those of the men who invested in them. 

A new logic?

The 2014 draft class will be the first true test of whether the 2011 draft sparked a paradigm shift among NFL decision-makers.

The 2012 class was a strong outlier, as it included Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, two prospects who would have been the top picks in any draft since the turn of the century. Luck and Griffin weren't at the top of draft boards because they were quarterbacks - they were at the top of draft boards because they were far and away the best prospects at any position. The Colts selected Luck despite having Peyton Manning on their roster; Luck's potential was that enticing.

The 2013 class didn't test the rule either, as it was an outlier in the opposite direction. Outside of the Buffalo Bills, who reached in a big way by selecting E.J. Manuel with the No. 16 pick, the weak 2013 class included no quarterbacks even the most staunch believers in the "quarterback trumps all" rule would argue was worth a top-ten pick.

The 2014 quarterback class mirrors 2011's. There are at least three quarterbacks - Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel - whose names are frequently mentioned as likely top picks - and perhaps worthy of the Texans' No. 1 overall choice. Others, including Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo, could hear their names called in the first round. 

More importantly, like 2011, the 2014 class is very strong at premium non-quarterback positions. An unnamed NFL executive recently called defensive end Jadeveon Clowney the best defensive prospect in a decade. NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock said he likes rush linebacker Khalil Mack even more than Clowney. NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell called Sammy Watkins the best receiving prospect since A.J. Green. Bleacher Report lead draft writer Matt Miller called Greg Robinson "as athletically dominant as any left tackle prospect I can remember evaluating." There is significant value to be found across the board.

But there's no Andrew Luck in this class. There's no Robert Griffin III. There are no can't-miss passers. In between five-star defensive prospects and potential offensive skill position stars are a lot of could-miss quarterbacks.

Bridgewater struggled through his pro day, missing his receivers on what should have been easy passes (against imaginary defenders). Some analysts believe Bortles' mechanics need an overhaul and that he came out of school a year too early. Manziel, well, you've probably heard a bit about his issues. His on-field and off-field red flags make him the most polarizing prospect in recent memory.

Thus, the paradigm is ripe for a shift. Will teams continue to bump quarterbacks ahead of superior prospects at other positions on their draft boards due to need, or will they stay true to the consensus rankings and select the best player available regardless of position?

Decisions, decisions, decisions...

We won't have to wait until the draft to find out how teams plan to approach drafting quarterbacks this year.

At least five quarterback-needy teams are set to draft in the top eight picks in May. (The Rams insist they don't need a quarterback, though not all analysts agree with the team's support of Sam Bradford, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers also appear to believe they are set at the position, and the Atlanta Falcons have Matt Ryan.)

Of that quintet, all five made deliberate moves in recent weeks to minimize the need to draft a quarterback in the first round and maximize their flexibility with regards to selecting the best player available. 

Specifically, all five  acquired (or re-signed) a veteran quarterback with starting experience in the NFL to serve as a potential "bridge" to a quarterback drafted outside the first round of the 2014 draft or in 2015.

Whether these personnel moves say more about how teams project Bridgewater, Bortles and Manziel as professionals, a shift in the importance placed on the position of quarterback, or the desire of the coaches and general managers of teams with early draft picks to preserve their employment by minimizing risk is up for debate.

Regardless, it's becoming apparent that we won't see a repeat of 2011 with four quarterbacks selected in the first 12 picks. The notion that one or more of the top passing prospects could slip out of the first round no longer appears absurd. Bridgewater, Bortles and Manziel should expect to spend longer than anticipated in the green room at Radio City Music Hall, waiting for their names to be called. 

As they wait, they can pass the time by imagining money disappearing into thin air.

The rookie wage scale implemented by the NFL after the 2011 lockout paid the No. 1 overall pick last year in the range of $22 million, fully guaranteed. The last pick in the first round earned about $7 million. In other words, Bridgewater, Bortles and Manziel stand to lose a lot of money if they tumble down draft boards. 

Of course, a draft-day fall isn't always a bad thing for a quarterback's long-term earning potential. Ask Aaron Rodgers, the highest-paid player in NFL history, if he benefited from falling to pick No. 24 and a Green Bay Packers team that allowed him to develop behind a veteran quarterback for a redshirt season (or three, in Rodgers' case). 

Jobs will still be on the line for the coaches and general managers on the teams picking near the top of the draft. Rookie quarterbacks still must be acquired - if not in the first round, then likely in the second or third. Coaches like the Texans' Bill O'Brien will still be tied to the young passer they select. But entering the season with your long-term hopes pinned on a rookie quarterback is a lot easier to stomach when you have a veteran in place as a backup plan, less money committed to a player who's never taken a snap in the NFL and a potential defensive stud like Jadeveon Clowney or Khalil Mack on your roster.