Breakout or Fakeout: Is Doug Baldwin a legitimate No. 1 receiver?

Seattle Seahawks wideout Doug Baldwin caught 78 passes for 1,069 yards and an NFL-best 14 touchdowns in 2015, including a stretch with 10 touchdowns in Weeks 12-15.

His reward for the breakout campaign was a four-year, $46-million contract extension, making him the seventh-highest paid receiver in the NFL in terms of average annual salary.

Is he for real?

The case for Baldwin

Baldwin is legitimately a top-caliber wide receiver and attempts to deny his ascension are often rooted in ill-informed narratives. The 27-year-old succeeded in spite of playing in a run-heavy system that will likely become more balanced following Marshawn Lynch's retirement.

Through five seasons, Baldwin thrived in an offense that doesn't cater to wide receivers.

Since 1992, Baldwin is one of three players to catch over 65 percent of their targets with an average of at least nine yards per target, SB Nation's Kenneth Arthur researched. Baldwin's catch rate through five seasons ranks fifth since 1992, trailing only Wes Welker, Randall Cobb, Percy Harvin and Jordy Nelson.

During the 2015 season, Baldwin finished third in receiving plus-minus and 11th in YAC+, the only player to rank in the top 15 according to data compiled by Football Outsiders. Baldwin is excelling through traditional and advanced stats and is proving capable of generating big plays regardless of the scheme he's placed in.

If the quantitative and qualitative analysis doesn't sway you, here's this:

- Srinivasan

The case against Baldwin

It's simple. Do you really want to pay a player big money for a remarkable four-game stretch? Most teams would say no. But the Seahawks decided to overpay Baldwin for past performance, when it's likely he'll experience a statistical regression in 2016.

Dwayne Bowe (72 catches, 1,159 yards, 15 TDs in 2010) and James Jones (64 catches, 784 yards, 14 TDs in 2012) are two really good examples of players that experienced remarkable production jumps around the same period in their careers. Both sharply regressed in the following season and never reached the heights of their breakout campaigns.

Season averages in years prior to statistical breakout:

Now that Baldwin will have to deal with more coverage attention, it's unlikely he can repeat the kind of performance that led to a $46-million contract. Consider that when you take away Weeks 12-15, Baldwin was on pace for 70 catches for 862 yards and 5 touchdowns. In other words, exactly what he has done over the entirety of his career and what he will likely revert back to doing in years to come.

- Thomson

You decide