Leafs F Phil Kessel is producing like a superstar, being deployed like a grinder
Though the teams playoff chances look as dismal and dilapidated as Carcosa at the moment, Toronto Maple Leafs forward Phil Kessel is third in the NHL in scoring and has authored a breakout campaign. Even if the Leafs' playoff hopes continue to fritter away down the stretch, no one will be pointing an accusatory, blaming finger in the direction of Toronto's superstar winger.
That's as it should be, of course. The Leafs have been led by Kessel (and quality goaltending) all season long. They wouldn't be close to the playoff bubble without his contributions. Even so, the popular understanding of Kessel's contributions and deployment, perhaps, undersell his importance.
Consider that the Wisconsin born sniper with the preposterously difficult to wield stick isn't just relied on to fill the net. He's also leaned on by Leafs head coach Randy Carlyle a startling amount to start shifts 200 feet from his own net, and clear the puck safely.
Consider the following five players. These are five players that lead all forwards in the National Hockey League in "defensive zone starts" (expressed as a raw total, not a percentage), they're also the only players who have started more than 400 shifts in their own end already this season:
[Data sourced from behindthenet.ca and NHL.com]
| Skater | Defensive Zone Starts | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Boyd Gordon | 542 | 21 |
| Jay McClement | 506 | 8 |
| Paul Gaustad | 439 | 16 |
| Phil Kessel | 431 | 76 |
| Marcus Kruger | 416 | 27 |
One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just doesn't belong...
There are very probably a couple of things going on here. The first is that the Maple Leafs get buried in their own end to an unprecedented degree, and give up a dizzying number of shots. More shots against results in more goalie stoppages, which results in more opportunities for defensive zone face-offs.
Indeed the Maple Leafs have an five forwards with 300 defensive zone starts or more already this season, a nearly unprecedented number. That's a big part of the story, but it's only part of it.
The other side is that this could be part of a counter-attacking scheme being used by Maple Leafs head coach Randy Carlyle. Like a reverse optimization.
For years in Vancouver, for example, former Canucks head coach Alain Vigneault used to feed the Sedin twins - who excel at producing offense off of the cycle - a steady diet of offensive zone starts. Kessel, in contrast, excels at producing offense off of the rush. Perhaps his singular deployment is meant to put him in a position to take advantage of his skating ability.
Whatever is going on, it's nearly unique. After all Kessel has started almost 50 more shifts in his own end than the next closest forward with more than 40 points this season (Sharks playmaker and face-off specialist Joe Thornton is second).