What Michael Sam's combine teaches us about his draft stock
Michael Sam was never going to be just another defensive end at the NFL combine this week. If he walked onto the field in Indianapolis as simply the SEC Defensive Player of the Year, he would attract extra attention.
The courageous choice to live honestly and proudly off-the-field brought the Missouri product all manner of extra scrutiny. Suddenly, the draft stock of the undersized pass rusher was a lead item on the talking head troll shows featured on each and every sports TV network. "Did Michael Sam's coming out affect his draft stock? Is the NFL ready for an openly gay player in 2014?"
The NFL is, first and foremost, about results - if Michael Sam can play at the game's highest level, he'll play. If Michael Sam delivers an edge to a potential team, they'll pick him.
But there are questions about Michael Sam's potential role in the NFL. During his Senior Bowl performance, Sam looked more like a specialist than a player capable of lining up every down.
The NFL combine is a strange animal. How many of the exercises and feats of strength relate directly to on-field performance? As David Epstein notes in his book The Sports Gene, the traits that make a player good at the bench press (shorter arms specifically forearms & wrists) might make him a worse pass rusher.
But the combine carries a lot of weight. How much, we can't know. But we do know how Sam performed and we can compare his numbers to other defensive ends in recent years. Might this offer insight into Sam's potential draft position?
Before we begin our comparison, something to consider. The reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year hasn't been selected outside the first round since 2006, when Demeco Ryans went 33rd overall to the Houston Texans - the first pick of the second round. This is a very large platform upon which to build.
But the numbers suggest a different fate for Sam. The combine is just one day but his performance was lackluster at best. He posted an official 40-yard time of 4.91, a 25.5 inch vertical leap, bench pressed 225 pounds 17 times. Sam also posted a 7.8 second three-cone drill time. All numbers were below-average for a D-lineman in 2014.
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Starting with 2013, we can create a group of players who ran their 40 in more than 4.85 seconds, posted a leap less than 30 inches, and completed fewer than 20 bench press reps.
In 2013, only two players posted times that slow and met the other criteria. Kapron Lewis-Moore of Notre Dame was selected in the sixth round by the Baltimore Ravens, though he was injured in the BCS Championship game and only participated in the 40-yard dash. Josh Harris of Montana went undrafted after running a 5.02 and completing just 15 bench presses.
2012 saw Jamaar Jarrett and Rennie Moore both post similar combine numbers to Sam. Both ran over five seconds in the dash, jumped right at 30 inches and completed 21 presses. Neither player was drafted, but they did see some preseason action that year.
Lazarius Levingston was drafted in the seventh round of the 2011 draft out of LSU. He battled injury but appeared in seven NFL games spread across in 2011 and 2012. His combine results (4.93 40, 7.29 cone, 29.5" leap) echo Sam's. Important to note Levingston is two inches taller and more than 30 pounds heavier.
Pernell McPhee went in the fifth round to the Baltimore Ravens that year after a great career at Mississippi State. His combine numbers (4.91/7.13 cone/ 28.5" leap/20 reps) are close to Sam, though his cone score blows Sam away. McPhee still plays in the NFL and successfully made the switch to outside linebacker in 2013.
Wayne Daniels went undrafted out of TCU. A similarly sized player to Sam, Daniels combine numbers are quite similar (5.03 dash/7.81 cone/25" vertical). Daniels currently plays in indoor football.
The 2010 draft features two players with similar profiles to Sam. Doug Worthington went in the seventh round to the Redskins before playing practice squad pinball for next few years. Brandon Lang was undrafted and currently plays in the CFL.
Finally, the 2009 draft features a few noteworthy names who fell into Sam's combine buckets. Jarius Wynn was drafted by the Green Bay Packers in the sixth round and has time with four different NFL teams.
Brandon Williams played end at Texas Tech before the Cowboys drafted him in the fourth round of the 2009 draft. He switched to outside linebacker almost immediately and played six games in 2010.
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Over the five previous NFL drafts, six players from the defensive lineman pool were taken after posting combine numbers similar to Sam's. One was picked with the goal of switching him to linebacker in mind. The five other players average 6'4" tall and carry an average weight of 295lbs. Their average draft position was 199th overall. Michael Sam is listed at 6'2, 260.
Sam is a tweener, which is news to exactly nobody. He is a undersized lineman who likely lacks the athleticism to play a different position at the professional level. The odds are stacked against him for being drafted at all, given his combination of size and strength.
The challenge remains the translation of his physical attributes to on-field success. Eyes-on scouting reports seem to echo what happened at Lucas Oil Stadium this week. Great use of hands and football instincts, but reliant on his first move.
Trent Cole is a name we might hear in the same breath as Sam as the Eagles outside linebacker. Cole was an end in college but has found success as an NFL pass rusher. That said, Cole's combine numbers, especially in the speed/quickness tests, dwarf those posted by Michael Sam.
There is a chance Michael Sam's SEC pedigree and "intangible" football skills boost his profile in the eyes of football decision makers. To say nothing of the character he displayed pre-draft, a possible differentiator.
If Sam goes undrafted, it will come as a shock. In the cutthroat world of NFL scouting, there is enough evidence in his on-field limitations that the things the combine doesn't measure might not even factor.