Finding a silver lining in the midst of Buffalo's scoring woes

Prior to their game against the Toronto Maple Maple Leafs on Nov. 29, James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail sent out the following dire outlook in regards to the Buffalo Sabres and their sputtering offense.

The Sabres scored three goals in a victory over Toronto that night, but dropped a 1-0 decision at the hands of the New Jersey Devils on Nov. 30. With 48 goals scored in 28 games, Buffalo is averaging 1.7 goals per game, good for a projected total of 139.

Here are a few points of salient points in regards to the Sabres' offensive woes so far this season.

• The Chicago Blackhawks lead the NHL with 102 goals through 28 games, more than double Buffalo's total in the same span.
• There are 53 NHL players with more goals than Buffalo's leading scorer (Cody Hodgson - eight goals), and 183 with more than second-leading scorers Matt Moulson, Tyler Ennis and the since-traded Thomas Vanek. 
• 183rd on that list? Former Sabres prospect Zack Kassian.
• Nathan Gerbe, bought out by the Sabres during the off-season, would sit second in goals on the team with six.

But the question now becomes whether there is reason for optimism in Buffalo, and if the offensive situation can improve even this year.

Improved puck possession under Ted Nolan

Today's conventional wisdom would suggest that advantages in puck possession and shot attempts lead to success, particularly when achieved consistently at even strength. After a dreadful start to the season, it would appear as though that ship is being righted under new head coach Ted Nolan.

Again, this was prior to their 3-2 victory on home ice over the Maple Leafs on Nov. 30, a game in which their Corsi for percentage was 55.4 at even strength. Consequently, that game was the first this season in which the Sabres both out-shot and bested their opponent.

They followed that up with a 35.5 percent Corsi for on Nov. 30 against the Devils, but even the average between the two games is a drastic improvement over the beginning of the season. The Devils game was also their second in two nights and on the road, which must also be taken into account.

Also of note for the Sabres in regards to even strength Corsi for percentage: they're no longer ranked dead last in the NHL. The Toronto Maple Leafs now have that distinction at 43.1 percent, with the Sabres coming in 29th at 43.4 percent. Small victory, but perhaps a sign that the Sabres are trending in a new direction.

(h/t Extra Skater)

Shooting percentage set to rise to league average

According to SportingCharts.com, team shooting percentage has levelled out in the nine to ten percent range since 1990. This season, the Sabres have scored 48 goals on 703 total shots, good for a 6.11 team shooting percentage. 

While there must be teams at the low end in order for an average to be set where it is, the Sabres can take solace in the fact that their early failures can be attributed, in part, to a well-below league average shooting percentage as a team.

In fact, several key Sabres are falling well short of their career shooting percentages.

On top of that, recent AHL callup Luke Adam has scored one goal on seven shots in five games, good for a shooting percentage of 14.3. In 15 AHL games this season, Adam scored 13 goals on 50 shots (26 percent), meaning it might benefit the team to unleash one of their higher end and clearly NHL-ready prospects.

Overall, the Sabres scored 28 goals in the month of November as compared to 23 in October; with improved possession numbers and shooting percentages due to increase, there's reason to believe that the Sabres will indeed be able to score with more regularity moving forward.