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5 NCAA tournament betting trends to follow into the Sweet 16

Rob Ferguson / USA TODAY Sports

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The final whistle has blown on the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament and it’s only a four-day break until the action starts up again. Before looking to the Sweet 16 matchups, here’s a quick recap of the biggest betting storylines from the past weekend:

ACC set to cold

The Atlantic Coast Conference is to college basketball what the Southeastern Conference is to college football. That’s why it surprised no one the tournament committee placed more teams from the ACC (nine) than any other conference in the Big Dance.

Those nine teams went a collective 99-14 straight up and 52-38-1 against the spread in non-conference games this season (some of those games did not have odds). Those same teams went 7-8 SU and 2-13 ATS in the opening rounds of the tournament.

The North Carolina Tar Heels are the only team from the ACC remaining in the tournament and they needed a 12-0 run in the final four minutes to finish off Arkansas on Sunday.

The Heels are co-favorites with Kansas to win the tournament (+450) but will have to beat Butler and the winner of Kentucky-UCLA just to make it to the Final Four.

Over the top

Many books and sports betting reporters detailed how Vegas and online books enjoyed a winning weekend from the betting public. One thing the books would like a do-over on are the totals for the opening rounds.

The Over went 23-9 in the Round of 64 thanks in large part to the results in the Midwest Region. The Over went 11-0-1 in Kansas’ region with an average of 155 points scored per game.

The four teams remaining in the Midwest are shooting a collective 42 percent from 3-point land and 51.8 percent from the field during the tournament. Oddsmakers set the Purdue-Kansas total at 156.5, the highest Over/Under number for the Boilermakers this season.

The Big 12 has also been a boon for Over bettors, with all 10 of the NCAA games involving Big 12 members going Over the total. Kansas, Baylor and West Virginia remain in the Big Dance with totals of 156.5, 137.5, and 148.5 respectively for their regional semifinal games.

Talk the chalk

The opening week of the NCAA tournament is known for some sizable point spreads when top seeds take on those in the No. 13, No. 14 and No. 15 category. Double-digit favorites stumbled out of the block on the opening Thursday but righted the ship Friday, but the big betting chalk is just 6-9 ATS heading into the Sweet 16. Now that we're down to the tournament elite, bettors won't likely see another double-digit spread the rest of March.

They will, however, see plenty of slim spreads - like the lines bouncing around pick'em for matchups such as Michigan vs. Oregon and UCLA vs. Kentucky. Florida is also a small favorite against Wisconsin, currently giving the Badgers two points. Favorites of 2.5 points or less are 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS so far in the Big Dance, covering 61.5 percent of the time.

Bad beats

Tom Petty said even the losers get lucky sometimes. Southern Cal and Oklahoma State backers must know what the front man from the Heartbreakers was talking about.

Both teams were on the fortuitous end of late-game garbage points. Oklahoma State trailed Michigan by four points with 3.7 seconds left to play. Oklahoma State guard Jawun Evans brought the ball up and launched a shot from at least four feet behind the 3-point arc.

The ball splashed through the net as time expired. Michigan players raised their arms in triumph while UM backers reached for their handkerchiefs.

Southern Cal was the comeback king in the first two rounds of the tournament and it looked like the Trojans were going to pull off another come-from-behind win against the 5.5-point favored Baylor Bears. The Trojans grabbed their first second-half lead when Chimezie Metu finished at the rim to make the score 65-63 with 6:13 left to play.

Baylor went on a 19-9 run and carried a 6-point lead into the final seconds. De’Anthony Melton missed an off-balance leaner from deep but the ball bounced softly to Metu. The big man used one hand and volleyed in an uncontested put-back. The buzzer-beater changed the score from 82-76 to 82-78, meaning the Bears failed to cover the 5.5-point spread.

But, for every bad beat there’s an amazing win. Let's hope you were on the positive - and profitable - side of these decisions.

Update on Outstanding Player

Duke wasn’t just the pre-tourney favorite to win the national championship. The team also boasted three of the top 15 players with the shortest odds to win the Most Outstanding Player Award.

Duke’s ousting also means Luke Kennard (+800), Grayson Allen (+1200) and Jayson Tatum (+1600) are all no longer in contention for the honor.

The only other players to drop out who had odds before the tournament are Villanova’s Josh Hart (+1000), Louisville’s Donovan Mitchell (+2200), FSU’s Dwayne Bacon (+4000), Notre Dame’s Bonzi Colson (+6600), SMU’s Semi Ojeyele (+6600), Virginia’s London Perrantes (+6600) and Oklahoma State’s Jawan Evans (+20,000).

Here are the latest MOP prop odds (from Sportsbook.ag):

Frank Mason III (Kansas) +750

Justin Jackson (North Carolina) +750

Allonzo Trier (Arizona) +800

Josh Jackson (Kansas) +800

Lauri Markkanen (Arizona) +1000

Lonzo Ball (UCLA) +1000

Nigel Williams-Goss (Gonzaga) +1000

Malik Monk (Kentucky) +1200

Joel Berry II (North Carolina) +1500

Dillon Brooks (Oregon) +1800

DeAaron Fox (Kentucky) +2000

Derrick Walton Jr. (Michigan) +2000

Przemek Karnowski (Gonzaga) +2000

Bryce Alford (UCLA) +2500

Caleb Swanigan (Purdue) +2500

Devonte Graham (Kansas) +2500

T.J. Leaf (UCLA) +2500

Kennedy Meeks (North Carolina) +3000

Ethan Happ (Wisconsin) +4000

Jevon Carter (West Virginia) +4000

Johnathan Motley (Baylor) +4000

KeVaughn Allen (Florida) +4000

Tyler Dorsey (Oregon) +4000

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