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Are the Thunder now at risk of missing the playoffs?

Soobum Im / USA Today Sports

The Oklahoma City Thunder might be in trouble.

As the preseason opened, the Thunder lost reigning NBA MVP Kevin Durant for six-plus weeks courtesy of a Jones fracture in his right foot. That alone was enough for some to question whether the Thunder would slide far enough in the standings that they would no longer pose a threat to win the Western Conference.

It also meant that a heavy load was going to fall on the shoulders of Russell Westbrook.

On Thursday night, Westbrook suffered a small fracture in his right hand, and he, too, will now miss an estimated four-to-eight weeks. The exact timeframe is unclear because the injury - a fracture of the bone connecting the index finger to the hand - is relatively uncommon.

For at least the next month, the Thunder will be without both Durant and Westbrook. That's a pair of All-Stars, the team's two best players, and, most importantly for the next few weeks, two extremely high-usage players.

The Thunder don't have a next-man-up plan in place with Durant and Westbrook down. The possession-dominance of that pair means that few others on the roster have experience carrying even an average offensive load. That problem is exacerbated by minor injuries to Reggie Jackson and Jeremy Lamb, and the absence of offensive safety valve Anthony Morrow - out as long as Westbrook and Durant - doesn't help, either.

Who steps up?

The Thunder aren't just thin on shot-creators, they're thin on bodies altogether. If Lamb and Jackson can't go on Saturday - the third game of an ill-timed five-in-seven-days stretch for the team - they may be down to just eight healthy bodies (sparsely used Grant Jerrett is also day-to-day). Their Saturday lineup may look as follows:

  • PG: Sebastian Telfair
  • Wing: Perry Jones, Andre Roberson, Lance Thomas
  • Bigs: Steven Adams, Nick Collison, Serge Ibaka, Mitch McGary, Kendrick Perkins
  • Injured: Durant, Jackson, Jerrett, Lamb, Morrow, Westbrook

That doesn't inspire much confidence, and it's clear that the scoring burden is going to fall on a couple of unproven players.

On Thursday, it was Jones who stepped up in a major way (having been identified before the season as a breakout candidate by at least one handsome scribe). He dropped 32 points on 10-of-17 shooting in a very impressive outing, considering the circumstances. He's not a 30-point player - he averaged just 10.2 points per-36 minutes as a sophomore last year - but he stands to see the biggest increase in role.

Roberson, too, could see more touches, and Thomas will be forced into more duty than is perhaps preferred. Telfair is a known commodity and can't be expected to suddenly become the "Through the Fire" star some expected here at age 29. 

Some would point to Ibaka as the likely candidate to see an increase in touches, but it remains unclear if head coach Scott Brooks has the confidence in his offensive game to use him as a primary weapon. The other Thunder bigs are decent interior scorers to varying degrees, but the team can't just dump the ball into the post and expect a basket from a single one of them.

Jackson should see a major workload spike when he returns, and Lamb will see more touches, too. Basically any Thunder guard or wing is a nice fantasy addition right now, but for the purposes of real basketball, it's clear that there's no acceptable plan here. You can't replace Durant or Westbrook, let alone both.

Are they doomed?

The only sliver of hope immediately available to the Thunder is that they may be able to get a Hardship Exception, which would allow the team to carry a 16th player. Once four players have missed three games each, a team qualifies for the exception. Of course, no player currently available is going to make much of a difference for the team's win-loss outlook. It's just a warm body.

Now, Durant and Westbrook aren't out for the season. It's conceivable they'll come back and the Thunder will go on a major run from mid-December through the rest of the season.

That might not be enough. A team in the Western Conference may need 48 or 49 wins to make the playoffs this year. If the Thunder struggle to 5-15 over their first 20 games, as suggested by Grantland's Zach Lowe, they would need to go 44-18 after their stars return to be in the playoff mix. Not safely in, just to be in the conversation.

A 44-18 record is a 58-win pace. The Thunder won 59 a year ago with only 46 games from Westbrook, and their full squad's true talent level is safely north of 60 wins. Their margin for error has just become painfully thin, and the current roster either needs to overperform without Oklahoma City's stars, or the team needs to get exceptionally hot when everyone is back.

For the first time since 2008-09, the idea of the Thunder missing the playoffs is a realistic one.

The tiniest of silver linings

When any established contender has an exceedingly unlucky run with injuries, one name comes to mind: Tim Duncan. The 1996-97 San Antonio Spurs were decimated by injuries, bottomed out with a 20-62 record (their lone playoff miss of the last 25 years), and landed Duncan in the following NBA Draft.

If the Thunder wind up missing the playoffs - and remember, that's in play but not a certain fate, especially if players can come back quickly - they stand to secure a lottery pick in what stands as a promising 2015 draft.

The Thunder have been very conservative with their draft picks in the past few seasons, to varying degrees of success. A top-10 pick would be their first since James Harden in 2009, and even a lottery pick would be their only one since 2009 save for Steven Adams at No. 12 in 2013 (from Toronto, via Houston).

That's a very tiny consolation prize for being downgraded from title contender to potential lottery team, but there's always room for positivity. We suppose.

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