16 Teams, 16 Questions: NBA Playoff preview
Nearly half of the NBA has been sent packing, while 16 teams remain to tip off the greatest two-month basketball tournament in the world. Some are championship contenders with all-or-nothing expectations, some are pretenders just happy to be there, and some are just the Atlanta Hawks.
Here are the questions surrounding each of those 16 teams on the eve of the 2014 postseason...
Atlanta Hawks - Can they break Indiana's defense?
This may seem like a strange question considering that the Hawks didn't look all that interested in even making the playoffs, finished 18 games behind the Pacers and that they're a middle of the pack offense going up against the league's No. 1 defense, but there is evidence to support it. The Hawks' offense performed better than any other East team against Indiana's vaunted D, they split the season series with the Pacers and routed them in Indiana just a couple of weeks ago.
In addition, the Hawks shoot over 36 percent from three-point territory as a team and scored 27.8 percent of their points behind the arc, while the Pacers slipped from the best team at defending the three in the first half of the season to the 18th-best over their final 42 games.
Brooklyn Nets - Are they Miami's kryptonite?
Beating the Raptors in the first round, experience factor aside, will be no easy task for the Nets. But if this veteran bunch can do that and draw the two-time defending champs in the second round, they'll get a chance to prove that there was something to them becoming the first team to beat The Big Three Heat four times in one season (The doubt lies in the fact that the four games were decided by just 12 points total and three of four were decided by one point).
If they can get by the Raptors and their regular season sweep against the Heat actually meant something, there's a world in which you can envision Brooklyn in the Eastern Conference Final and beyond. But there's also a world where you can envision the Nets realizing that they just mortgaged the next half-decade of their future for a 45-win season and a first round exit at the hands of the Raptors.
Charlotte Bobcats - Can they win one game? No, seriously. Just one?
As Andrew Unterberger pointed out in his fabulous Eastern Conference subplots piece, the Bobcats franchise has never won a playoff game and have also failed to beat the Heat at all since LeBron took his talents to South Beach, going 0-fer their last 15 against Miami. A win of any kind in this series (particularly early in the series to give off the impression that this will actually be a series) would be the pinnacle of Bobcats basketball and a perfect way for the city of Charlotte to bring 'the buzz' back as they head back towards their proud Hornets tradition.
Chicago Bulls - Is this team actually a darkhorse contender?
Under Tom Thibodeau and led by Joakim Noah, the Bulls have earned themselves a reputation as the league's toughest, grittiest, most resilient team as they navigate another successful Rose-less season. They're surely respected by the NBA's elite, but it's hard to find anyone outside of Chicago who thinks of this team as an actual low lying contender. By avoiding the Heat on their side of the East bracket and with the way the Pacers have slid down the stretch, however, you can make an argument that the Bulls are really the biggest threat to Miami in the East Final.
Of note, the Bulls went an East-best 36-16 in the New Year and limited opponents to just 97.8 points per 100 possessions on the season. This team is as scary as they come outside of Miami in the East.
Dallas Mavericks - Does Dirk have some playoff magic left in him?
After his magical 2011 playoffs and Finals performance, Dirk Nowitzki hasn't been given much of an opportunity to build off of that postseason performance since then. The Mavs were swept by the Thunder in the first round in 2012 and failed to even make the playoffs (for the first time in 13 years) with Nowitzki limited to 53 games during the 2012-13 season.
Dallas lost all four games to San Antonio this season and the expectation is that the Spurs will sweep away the Mavs rather quickly, but Dirk averaged 21.7 points on a near 50-40-90 shooting split (49.7/39.8/89.9, to be exact) to carry his team to 49 wins in one of the toughest Western Conferences ever in his age-35 season this year. Very little of that makes human sense. Are we sure we want to discount his ability to at least make this a series?
Golden State Warriors - Do they stand a chance without Bogut?
The numbers indicate just how crucial Andrew Bogut's presence is to the Warriors on both ends of the court, and with the way Blake Griffin is playing right now alongside Chris Paul, competing with the Clippers in the first round - let alone beating them - would likely take the greatest stroke of Steph Curry magic we've seen yet.
Between Curry, some funky small lineups Mark Jackson can throw out there and the Oracle crowd, the Dubs can steal a game or two from L.A., but anything beyond that is likely wishful thinking. In a couple weeks time, the real questions surrounding the Warriors might be about Jackson's job security and where Golden State goes from here.
Houston Rockets - Is the missing piece still out there?
In their first season together, James Harden and Dwight Howard proved to be one of the best combos in the league, leading the Rockets to a 54-win campaign and fringe contention. But it still feels like that third, missing piece or final Morey move to complete the puzzle is still to come, and that Houston isn't quite ready for prime time yet.
On the other hand, Chandler Parsons, Patrick Beverley, Terrence Jones and Jeremy Lin, among others (Omer Asik?), make a fine supporting cast, and if the Rockets can get by the Blazers in Round One, they'd get a date with the Spurs (who they took three of four from this season) in Round Two. It will be hard to argue that the Rockets need much more tinkering if they knock out San Antonio and advance to at least the West Final after a 54-win season in Year One of this team's development.
Indiana Pacers - Which Pacers team shows up?
Everyone knows the story of this team by now. They went 33-7 in their first 40 games, Paul George made a bid for MVP, Roy Hibbert looked like a Defensive Player of the Year shoo-in, they had the best defense the NBA had seen in six years and looked plenty capable of winning a championship, if not at least pushing the Heat to the brink again in another inevitable Indiana/Miami East Final.
Then the second half of the season started and the Pacers crashed back down to earth, going a mediocre 23-19 while George lost his offense, Hibbert kind of lost everything and the team started to come apart at the seams, both on the court and in the locker room. Now we're wondering if they even have enough left to get to that East Final against Miami, let alone win a title. For that reason, the Pacers are probably the most unpredictable team and one of the most interesting stories going into the postseason.
Los Angeles Clippers - Is this finally the year for Chris Paul? (And are Paul and Griffin the best combo in basketball?)
Seven-time All-Star. Soon to be six-time All-NBA. Five-time All-Defensive team. The deserving 2008 MVP (which went to Kobe). Point God.
Chris Paul has already carved out a Hall of Fame career at age 28, but the Clippers superstar has never made it past the second round of the playoffs and has only even gotten that far twice in his nine-year career. With the way Blake Griffin has evolved into a legitimate superstar and second tier MVP candidate, with the way DeAndre Jordan has come into his own and with Doc Rivers at the helm in L.A., this is by far the best chance Paul has ever had to make a championship run, and if the Clips aren't playing deep into Spring, it might be the year the skeptics and armchair point guards begin pointing the finger at CP3.
With a potential Round Two matchup with the Durant/Westbrook-led Thunder looming, a successful Clippers postseason would also leave little doubt that the Paul/Griffin combo is the best one going right now.
Memphis Grizzlies - Are they the scariest 7-seed ever?
They were without their best player and the reigning Defensive Player of the Year for a quarter of the season and found themselves under .500 and 4.5 games out of a playoff spot in the unforgiving West nearly midway through the year. And yet the Grizzlies still found a way to win 50 games and climb up to the seventh spot in, again, one of the toughest Conferences the NBA has ever seen.
They were seen as at least a fringe contender coming into the season, and their ridiculous 34-13 finish to the year reminded us that they remain very capable of being one. Pit them against the 59-23 Thunder for the third time in four years, and you have perhaps the juiciest 2 vs. 7 matchup in NBA history.
Miami Heat - Do they have enough left in the tank?
On one hand, we've learned not to put much stock in Heat slumps over the last four years. On the other hand, their .659 winning percentage was the worst of The Big Three era, they went 11-14 over their final 25 games, Dwyane Wade's health and consistency is as concerning as ever and no team has advanced to four straight NBA Finals in nearly three decades (The 1984-1987 Celtics were the last team to do it).
With the Pacers' assumed demise, the East appears to be open for Miami to waltz through once again, but there remains the very real possibility that after 379 games played since the beginning of the 2010-11 season, including playoff games, the Heat are simply wearing down.
Oklahoma City - Is this the year of KD?
The Heat remain the champs and LeBron James remains the best player alive, the Spurs finished with the best record and are probably Western Conference favorites, and it feels like there are more challengers than ever, so if Kevin Durant completes his epic, MVP, near-30/30 Club 2013-14 season by leading the Thunder through all of those challengers and to the top of the mountain - at age 25, no less - he'll leave us no choice but to re-evaluate that 'best player alive' thing and begin already thinking about The Slim Reaper's place among the all time greats.
Portland Trail Blazers - Are they disrespected contenders or overachieving pretenders?
They have a couple of All-Stars and borderline superstars in LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard, and a solid supporting cast consisting of Nicolas Batum, Wes Matthews and Robin Lopez. Their defensive efficiency climbed to a more respectable 16th over the course of the season to compliment a top-five offense, they tied Miami and Houston for the fifth-best record in the league and won 54 games in a ridiculous Western Conference when that 55 range is usually considered title contending material. And yet is anyone even picking them to beat the Rockets in the first round, let alone talking about them as a contender?
Their bench remains a weakness, but their starting five can play with anybody and will obviously log the bulk of the minutes together as rotations tighten around the league. Plus, the Spurs may be the only team who appear without a flaw right now. The most realistic Blazers scenario involves a first round exit in this West, but it still feels as though they deserve a little more respect.
San Antonio Spurs - How good can they be with regular playoff minutes?
In case you haven't heard, the old, supposedly nearing their end Spurs actually won a league-best 62 games despite being the first team since the NBA/ABA merger to not feature a single player averaging 30-plus minutes per game. In other words, they're not old, but rather the most well rested team heading into this tournament, and imagining the damage they can inflict with Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Kawhi Leonard and Manu Ginobili all playing regular playoff-style minutes is downright frightening.
If you're looking for a rare reason to bet against the Spurs, you could make the argument that they won 62 games because of their regular season depth, which won't matter as much now that teams will begin relying on their apex stars for 40 minutes a night. But then you'd also have to take into account the fact that the Spurs' two most used five-man units this season posted net ratings of +14.6 and +6.8, respectively, and that those units are now going to see more time together as well.
Toronto Raptors - Has a northern uprising really begun?
Sports fans and media members referring to a 'palpable buzz' in an arena or town are usually exaggerating, but if you've been around Toronto this week, it really does feel different, like we're on the cusp of a pivotal moment for the identity of Toronto hoops. We realized Vince Carter was delivering the first of those moments during his epic 2000 dunk contest performance and started realizing the significance of Carter's missed shot at the buzzer in Philly in the years to follow, but for the first time I can remember, Raptors fans across Canada seem to be aware of the significance of this moment beforehand, leaving Toronto with a calm-before-the-storm kind of feel tonight (in a good way).
The Raptors, along with the Nets, will help open the 2014 postseason Saturday afternoon on ESPN. Fans north of the border have been here before - at this precipice of hope for the future - and have left disappointed each time. But a first round victory over Brooklyn (which would be the second series win in franchise history and the first in 13 years) and a decent showing against the Heat in Round Two might be exactly what's needed to usher in a new era of respectability and relevance for Canada's lone NBA franchise.
Washington Wizards - Will John Wall be this year's breakout star?
John Wall averaged 19.3 points, 8.8 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 1.8 assists to lead the Wizards to a 44-38 season and their first postseason appearance in six years, earning an All-Star nod along the way in the final season before a five-year maximum extension kicks in. In many ways, the 23-year-old has already arrived as an NBA star, but a memorable postseason run can elevate his status to that next level of superstardom, as Paul George, Stephen Curry and countless other young stars over the years can attest.
When you consider that the Wizards took two of three from the Bulls this season, that their starting lineup posted the fifth-best net rating of the NBA's 35 most frequently used lineups and that a date with Miami wouldn't come until the Conference Finals, thanks to their place in the East bracket, you begin to realize that maybe the stage for that Wall ascension is set.