Why the Warriors need Bogut and how they can adjust without him

The Warriors may have clinched their first 50-win season in 20 years with a thrilling victory over Minnesota on Monday, but the big news in The Bay Area was that Andrew Bogut has been ruled out indefinitely with a fractured rib.

That won’t affect Golden State’s playoff positioning, as the Dubs are locked into the No. 6 spot, but conventional wisdom would tell you that this team has no chance of beating one of the Clippers or Thunder four out of seven times without their defensive anchor.

The numbers support that wisdom, as the Warriors, who went a combined 3-4 against those two teams this season, outscore opponents by an average of just 1.8 points per 48 minutes with Bogut on the bench as opposed to a plus-8.4 point differential with the big Australian on the court.

Their defense is two points per 100 possessions better with Bogut on the court, and while some assume Bogut’s impact is strictly defensive, the Warriors’ offense actually improves by 4.6 points per 100 possessions (103.2 to 107.8) with Bogut on the floor as opposed to off of it.

In addition, Golden State’s rebound rate of 52.5 with Bogut in the game would lead the NBA, while their rate of just 50.0 without Bogut would place them in a three-way tie with New Orleans and Washington for 17th.

The real shame, however, is in the lineup data. If Bogut misses the postseason, or at least misses the first round, we’ll continue to wonder how good this team could have been if they had stayed healthy, as the starting lineup of Bogut, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala and David Lee ranked as the best five-man unit out of the 34 most used lineups in the league, with a remarkable positive net rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating) of 15.4.

We’ll also always wonder how good they could have been if Draymond Green replaced David Lee in that lineup, but between Green and Jermaine O’Neal, the Warriors might have a puncher’s chance of surviving without Bogut. Their third-most used lineup this season, which featured Green in for Lee and O’Neal in for Bogut, performed well, and a small-ball lineup that saw Lee man the center position and Green replacing Bogut in the frontcourt actually destroyed opposing teams to the tune of a plus-34.2 net rating in 105 minutes together.

That’s over 700 less minutes than the Warriors’ usual five-man unit logged together and so sustainability would be a concern, but that small lineup may be of value against the Thunder (Lee’s defense wouldn’t be as much of a concern with Kendrick Perkins on the opposite end, and the Iguodala/Green combo is better defensively than most can throw at Durant/Ibaka), while a frontcourt of Green and O’Neal would be better suited against LA’s Griffin/Jordan combination.

Those adjustments may give the Warriors a chance on D if Curry can keep them afloat offensively, but their best hope for the postseason remains a healthy Bogut helping Iguodala carry a top-three defense. That’s now become a moot point, as Mark Jackson’s seat gets even hotter.