Why the Hawks might prefer to miss the playoffs

The Atlanta Hawks have been in a tailspin for most of the season's second half, plummeting from third to eighth in the Eastern Conference thanks to longterm injuries to Al Horford, Gustavo Ayon and John Jenkins, and shorter term injuries to Paul Millsap and Pero Antic.

When healthy, the Hawks would surely be a winning team in the East and could probably compete with the likes of the Raptors, Bulls and Nets for a realistic path to the second round of the postseason. In their current form, they're a playoff team by Eastern Conference distinction only, currently sitting at 32-41 after losing 20 of 27 games.

As the Hawks have continued to fall, the Knicks (and even the Cavs) have slowly risen to the point that they're now just one game behind Atlanta for the East's final playoff spot, and many astute NBA observers have begun to wonder whether the Hawks' organization wouldn't actually prefer missing the playoffs as opposed to settling for being first round cannon fodder for one of the Heat or Pacers.

That theory seems especially relevant now, with Hawks General Manager Danny Ferry making the following comments to USA TODAY:

"We're not focused on trying to be the eighth seed in the playoffs because that's not our goal. We're trying to build something that's good, sustainable and the components are in place for us to do so."

Ferry will surely never admit that he would actually prefer the lottery to the playoffs, but his words speak volumes.

Some have taken issue with these comments, but the truth is that they seem to be the words of a forward-thinking executive, the exact line of thinking poorly run teams like the Knicks have lacked for too long.

Here's the deal - under the current NBA Draft Lottery system, crappy Eastern Conference teams that win 35-37 games and make the playoffs end up with no shot at moving up in the lottery, winning the lottery or even taking part in the lottery. They're limited to the 15th pick, which means a mediocre team gets slotted into the most mediocre of first round picks. A ninth-place Western Conference team that wins 47-49 games, on the other hand, gets to play their unlikely hands at the lottery table, and are guaranteed no lower than the 14th pick.

It's a broken system, and one that can easily be altered and more balanced while still giving bad teams the best chance at the top picks, but it's the system nonetheless, and until that system changes, front office executives need to operate according to it. For the Hawks, finishing eighth likely means two home playoff games, a quick first round sweep at the hands of Miami and the No. 15 pick this June.

If the team slides just one spot, however, to ninth, while their current projection would only have them land the No. 12 pick, they'd also have a very slim chance (2.5%) to move into the top-three picks, thanks to the lottery. For those that scoff at those odds, keep in mind that just a few years ago, the Cavaliers won the No. 1 pick with a traded Clippers pick that had just a 2.8 percent chance of connecting.

And again, that's only assuming the Hawks miss the playoffs by falling to ninth. They're also only three games clear of Cleveland for 10th in the East and the ninth-worst record overall. Now we're talking about a likely top-10 pick (The ninth-worst record means a 93.5% chance at a top-10 pick) and a 6.1 percent chance of moving into the top-three.

This isn't the difference between getting into the playoffs as a competitive team capable of making a run and ending up in the lottery. This is the difference between backing into the playoffs as a 45-plus loss team with no chance at playoff success or lottery riches and sliding into the lottery with an outside shot of landing a franchise level player.

For a team with some intriguing young assets that are already playoff capable when healthy and cap flexibility going forward, like the Hawks, the latter provides better potential for longterm sustainable success than the former. Don't hate on Danny Ferry for coyly reminding us of that.