The 2014-15 Knicks could be truly terrible
The 2013-14 New York Knicks are already operating in the darkest timeline. Monday provided yet another gut-punch, dropping them to 21-36, six games out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.
It certainly seems like things can't get worse.
Not to kick a fanbase when they're down, but things can certainly get worse, and they almost surely will. Consider the following two possibilities, which are by no means mutually exclusive and are actually probably very closely related:
- The Knicks miss the playoffs.
- Carmelo Anthony leaves this summer.
The former is looking more and more likely by the day. The Knicks have just 25 games left to make up a six-game gap, and they have to jump two additional teams in the process. A lot has to break right to avoid entering the lottery.
The latter is something that has been heavily speculated about already. Anthony's wife has suggested he'll stay in New York - he'll still opt out of his deal because it makes financial sense to do so - and she may be the best authority on the matter. But he's also suggested winning is the most important thing to him, even if it costs him some money. Would Anthony consider re-upping with a non-playoff team with no clear means of improving?
Melo: "You score 40 or 44 and still lose, and you ask yourself, 'Is it worth it?'"
— Chris Herring (@HerringWSJ) February 25, 2014
But wait, you say. If the Knicks miss the playoffs, they'll have a lottery pick in the loaded 2014 draft.
Wrong. In order to acquire Anthony in the first place, the Knicks surrendered their 2014 first-round pick to the Nuggets, who may or may not have to send it to Orlando. They don't even have a second-round pick, as it's owed to Houston from a 2012 trade for Marcus Camby. The Knicks have no picks, which probably plays into Anthony's situation even more since, again, the team has no path to getting better.
So what would the 2014-15 Knicks look like in the event that Anthony took his talents elsewhere and the team missed the playoffs, leaving them with no incoming draft picks? It's not pretty:
| Player | 2014-15 Salary (MM) |
|---|---|
| Amar'e Stoudemire | 23.4 |
| Tyson Chandler | 14.6 |
| Andrea Bargnani | 11.5 |
| J.R. Smith | 6 |
| Raymond Felton | 3.8 |
| Iman Shumpert | 2.6 |
| Pablo Prigioni | 1.7 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 1.3 |
| TOTAL | 64.9 |
| ~ CAP SPACE | -2.8 |
| ~ UNDER TAX | 10.8 |
[Salaries Courtesy: Sham Sports, Cap Estimates Courtesy: Larry Coon]
So if Anthony walks, the Knicks are still over the cap with just eight players under contract (Toure Murry is also a restricted free agent). If they used their mid-level exception and signed four players to minimum deals to get to the 13-player minimum, they're already pushing close to the now-more-punitive luxury tax.
Look at that potential roster. Even if you give the front office the benefit of the doubt with a crafty trade or two - which you absolutely should not, given their track record - it's difficult to see this team competing at all without Anthony. They're 21-36 now with Anthony posting one of the five best offensive seasons in the league, for crying out loud.
The Knicks also owe their 2015 second-round pick (Houston, from said Camby trade), 2016 first-round pick (Denver has the right to swap from the Anthony trade, the Raptors get the lesser pick from the Andrea Bargnani trade), 2016 second-round pick (Sacramento, via Portland from the Raymond Felton sign-and-trade) and 2017 second-round pick (Toronto from the Bargnani deal).
Yes, they're an attractive market and any cap space they can carve out for 2015 (they have almost no money guaranteed, except for a few large player options and one small team option) will go further than the cap space of most teams. But without a star to recruit players, and given that the franchise has largely botched Anthony's prime years, and given a complete lack of incoming young talent, is a superstar going to roll the dice on this franchise?
Things could be getting really ugly in Gotham, really soon.