The Not-Gonna-Be All-Stars All-Stars
By now, the All-Star debate is basically over. There's two weeks left in the voting, players and teams are who they are, and dudes are gonna get in for the typical reasons and get excluded for the same. The only real wildcard left is injuries, and certainly the way this season is going, in the time between my hitting "send" on this e-mail and the article actually getting published, one of the 24 guys otherwise bound for New Orleans is gonna go down with a really bad hangnail for 4-6 weeks. But on the off-chance everyone stays healthy, I'd say the rosters are more or less set.
And without any unnecessary explanation or elaboration, here's what I'm guessing the rosters are going to look like (starters, then reserves):
EAST:
Kyrie Irving
Dwyane Wade
LeBron James
Carmelo Anthony
Paul George
Roy Hibbert
Chris Bosh
John Wall
Paul Millsap
DeMar Derozan
Arron Afflalo
Joakim Noah
WEST:
Kobe Bryant
Stephen Curry
Kevin Durant
Blake Griffin
Dwight Howard
Kevin Love
Damian Lillard
LaMarcus Aldridge
Dirk Nowtizki
James Harden
Anthony Davis
Tony Parker
There's a little flexibility in the West if Kobe doesn't end up playing due to injury, but my hunch is he'll end up making it back in time. (And if he doesn't, Chris Paul probably will instead, so write him in.)
So who does that leave off? Who's deserving, but doesn't have the superficial stats, the easily understood storyline, or the team success enough to make a credible case to the average voter--guys only the home-team announcers are currently stumping for? Let's break down five snubs-to-be per conference:
EAST:
Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors
If there was a captain of the East team, it would undoubtedly be Lowry. He might even have a chance for getting in the game proper, but I can't imagine the coaches will carry two Raptors, and DeMar DeRozan (with his 21.3 PPG average, fifth best in the whole conference) has more of that BIGGEST SCORER AND THEREFORE BEST PLAYER sheen to him.
But Joseph Casciaro did a pretty good job the other day breaking down what a great season his backcourt mate Lowry is having--both by his own standards, where he's averaging the highest PPG (16.0), APG (7.4), SPG (1.7), 3PT% (39.8%) and PER (19.8) of his entire career, and compared to the entire league, where he ranks top ten in Win Shares (5.9, by far the most of any East guard, and already more than he had all of last year in nearly twice as many games). Combined with the fact that the Raptors are having their best season in at least a half-decade, by rights Lowry would be a shoo-in.
Still, at a glance, Lowry's stats don't really jump off the page at you, and if you don't watch a lot of Raptors games, you know DeRozan much more as the story, so we're gonna need some damn attentive coaches to know to vote Lowry instead. We'll see, but smart money's on the former.
Lance Stephenson, Indiana Pacers
It seems a little incredible that Born Ready, barely even on the fringes of the NBA two seasons ago, could really have catapulted himself to All-Star status quite this quickly. But not only is he the second-leading scorer on the best team in the East with his 13.3 points per game, he's also third on the team in rebounds with his 6.2, and he actually leads the squad in assists with 5.2 per--one of only three players in the entire league posting a 13/6/5. Throw in the tenacious defense and the way he gets his team and all BankersLife Fieldhouse impossibly hyped whenever he does something cool, it's not hard to argue he's been one of the East's 12 most valuable players this season.
He's hurt by the just 13 points per game, though, in addition to the fact that the team already will inevitably have two other Pacers in Paul George and Roy Hibbert, as well as the fact that...well, he's still Lance Stephenson. Sure would be fun to have him in the game, though. If his exponential improvement rate continues, he'll have to get in soon enough anyway.
Luol Deng, Chicago Bulls / Cleveland Cavaliers
It's always a little weird when the guy who just got traded makes the All-Star team, but despite shuffling from one losing squad to another, Deng's individual numbers are actually better than they were either of the years he's made the team so far. His 19 PPG and 3.4 APG are both career highs, his 46% FG is his best rate in four seasons, and his 17.7 PER is the highest he's posted since two seasons before Derrick Rose was drafted. Considering he's a guy who's always made his rep on defense, and now he's actually posting All-Star-caliber offensive numbers as well, you'd think Deng would be a shoo-in for his third-straight team.
But even more than his defense, Deng has been a two-time All-Star due to his rep for being a winner. And since the Bulls and Cavs haven't been winning, Deng will probably be punished for that. It'll be between he and Noah for that final East spot, I think, and due to the scarcity of decent centers in the East, I think the coaches are probably more likely to go with the traditional pivot Noah--who's also having a pretty good season, and a nice story in helping lead the Bulls to five straight post-Deng wins.
Michael Carter-Williams, Philadelphia 76ers
Believe it or not, there are actually four guys on the Sixers who have an argument for having an argument for being an All-Star, and I've broken them all down separately in another piece. Of the four, the guy who I think has the best claim is rookie sensation Michael Carter-Williams, still averaging numbers that no first-year players outside of Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson have ever posted--17.6 PPG, 7.0 APG and 5.9 RPG, along with 2.6 steals, which is second in the entire league, and an 18.6 PER (over two points higher than Damian Lillard's last year, by the way). He's the runaway Rookie of the Year, and has a pretty decent claim to All-Star status in my book.
However, he's still a first-year player on one of the worst teams in the league--though the team has gone a decent-enough 12-15 with him in the lineup and a much-less-decent 1-10 without--and he did miss 11 games with injury, which are probably enough to disqualify him from consideration. Still, who would you rather have in this game--the guy who put up 22 points, 13 rebounds, nine steals and seven assists in a win over the two-time champion Heat IN HIS FIRST PRO GAME EVER...or Arron Afflalo? Just sayin'.
Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
I don't really believe that strongly in Drummond's All-Star candidacy--he's been mediocre at best on defense, and Detroit is so much more of a mess than they should be that I don't think any of their players deserve to be rewarded this February--but I wanted to have five East guys, and even though he wouldn't be the 12th-biggest snub in the West, Drummond probably ranks fifth here. He does have one of the East's best PER's with his 21.6, he does lead the league with his 21.6 total rebound percentage, and he has helped my fantasy team immeasurably with his ability to post double-doubles just by hanging around the basket and just grabbing the ball or throwing it down whenever it hovered over his general vicinity.
He'll be a perennial soon enough. Assuming Detroit can get their s--- together at some point, anyway.
WEST:
DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings
DeMarcus seems all but destined to be one of the most egregious snubs in All-Star history. Taken at face value, his numbers are so mindblowingly awesome--23 points, 12 boards, three assists, 50% shooting, two steals, a block, nine free throw attempts a game and a 27.1 PER (top five in the entire league)--that it seems all but inconceivable he could possibly be left behind when the names get read two weeks from now.
But he's still DeMarcus Cousins, and he still plays for the West's third-worst Sacramento Kings, and those two facts alone are going to be enough for him to be automatically disqualified by many. Jeff Van Gundy said he doesn't think DMC should be an All-Star because he doesn't think any player for a sub-.500 team should be an All-Star--a decree that would have especially interesting implications in the super-crappy East, but less so in the West, where there's no shortage of good players on winning teams to choose from.
In the end, it'll probably be between Cousins and New Orleans' Anthony Davis for that final "overachieving super-awesome young guy on an underachieving lousy team" spot, and Davis has the cleaner image and the home-city advantage. Prepare for that chip on DMC's shoulder to get even bigger this February.
Mike Conley, Memphis Grizzlies
Conley has a pretty good argument for co-captainship with Cousins on this squad. As he has just about every year before this, Conley has taken a leap forward this season, averaging not only the highest PPG (18.0) of his career but also the highest FG% (45.5), while improving his assist rate and cutting down his turnovers. Consequently, his PER has moved from above-average (18.3) to elite (20.9), and he's kept the Grizzlies in the playoff hunt in the crowded West while the team has suffered through countless tough injuries, most notably to their default best player, Marc Gasol.
Unfortunately, Conley has to compete with a truly historically loaded West backcourt, one which even after accounting for the injuries to Kobe, Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook and Eric Bledsoe is probably too crowded for him to poke his head in there. Too many other guys are playing for better teams, putting up better numbers, or both for Conley to get a word in edgewise. It's a shame, since it would be nice for the once universally derided Conley to have improved his career billing from "bust" to "average" to "solidly above average, but never an All-Star" to finally "All-Star," but he'll need a couple more injuries or a much better Grizzlies squad in years to come to have much of a chance.
David Lee, Golden State Warriors
Lost in all the backlash over what a lousy defender David Lee is, and how much he's holding the Warriors back from achieving their destiny as a one-in, four-out run-and-gun team, is the fact that he might actually be having his best statistical season since coming to Golden State. Per 36 minutes, he's putting up a 20/10, on 53% shooting and a PER over 20, with his 5.2 Win Shares ranking him tenth in the entire league--more than fellow West power forwards Dirk Nowitzki or even oft-mentioned MVP candidate LaMarcus Aldridge.
Still, the tide has turned against Lee since he was somehow named an All-Star over teammate Stephen Curry last year, and the prevailing notion is that he should probably be passed over this season in favor of some of his equally-if-not-more-deserving West brethren. It's worth remembering, though--this guy is still damn good at basketball.
Nicolas Batum (and Wesley Matthews), Portland Trailblazers
The Lance Stephenson of the West. Like Stephenson, Nicolas is only averaging 13.3 points per game, but he gets it done everywhere else on the stat sheet, also posting 6.7 boards and 5.7 assists a game (the second member of the 13/6/5 club, with LeBron of course being the third), as well as being the closest thing Portland has to a lockdown defender. He's not nearly starry enough to actually make an All-Star team, but if there was an All-Complimentary-Player team, Batum would be leading in the fan voting for sure.
You could throw Wesley Matthews on here as well. He doesn't do as many things as Batum does for the Blazers, but he's their other pretty-good wing defender, he's averaging over 16 points per game, he has an absolutely insane offensive rating of 125, best in the entire league. Again, no real claim to an actual All-Star Team, but an All-Advanced-Stat team would have to give Wes a long, hard look.
Goran Dragic, Phoenix Suns
He's attempting to tread All-Star water on a suddenly floundering Suns team that's rapidly losing their "well, they have to have SOMEONE at the team, don't they?" claim, but Dragic is having a career year regardless. 19 points and six assists a game on 48% shooting, most while splitting the point guard duties with another PG who'd be an All-Star snub himself were he not out indefinitely with injury, for a team that most expected to be cellar-dwellers and is instead somehow still in the playoff picture--it's a pretty convincing argument.
Unfortunately, as with Conley, Dragic doesn't stand much of a chance against the Lillards, Currys and Hardens of the world. He'll have to do with an apology, an admission that both he and his team are a lot better than we gave them credit for, and an exclusion from all the trade-machine scenarios everyone was putting him in at year's beginning when it seemed like there was no way the Suns would hang on to both him and Bledsoe.