Finding good homes for 2014 Restricted Free Agents

It wasn't exactly major headline news, but last week, the deadline for extending players whose rookie deals were set to expire this summer--basically anyone drafted in 2010---came and went. Many of the big name players from that draft class, including the Pacers' Paul George, the Kings' DeMarcus Cousins and the Wizards' John Wall, had long since signed such extensions, but a handful of other big names had not, and will now enter the summer of 2014 as restricted free agents.

Truth told, this always seems more tantalizing to NBA fans--wow, all these good, high-upside young players suddenly ripe for the plucking--than it really is. Restricted free agency means that a player's original team can match any offer sheet signed by that player with a new team if they so choose, and most of the time, they so choose--it's hard enough to get good young players on your roster in the first place, you don't generally let them walk away for nothing without a pretty good reason. If the player's worth keeping, they usually get kept--which, for instance, is probably why no one even bothered trying to sign Nikola Pekovic to a contract last summer that they knew the Timberwolves were just going to match.

Still, it does happen. From the 2009 draft class--last year's crop of new restricted free agents--both Tyreke Evans, the 2009-'10 Rookie of the Year winner, and Brandon Jennings, the third-place finisher, switched teams over the summer after failing to come to terms with their previous teams on extensions, with the respective teams opting to move forward on their future plans without them. It's a tough decision for a lot of teams to make, but sometimes it just makes sense to cut the cord, and then it's time for the rest of the league to pounce.

With that in mind, I've decided to play armchair GM for some of the more interesting names that should now be on the quasi-market next summer, finding appropriate new (or not) landing spots for these wayward NBA souls. It may or may not work out this ideally for these guys, but it's always fun to speculate, and it might be a while still until we get any actual player movement again in the league. There are probably unspoken rules about not firing up the Trade Machine before Hanukkah, anyway. 

Greg Monroe, PF/C

Current team: Detroit Pistons
Future team: Dallas Mavericks

Well, the Mavs have been forever chasing a blockbuster free-agent signing, and in the Pistons' 23-year-old big man, they could finally get one. Monroe isn't a household name the way that Deron Williams, Chris Paul and Dwight Howard have been, but he's younger, he's been an extremely productive pro for such an inexperienced player--career PER of 19.7--and he also might not cost quite as much. Meanwhile, he might be the odd man out in the Pistons' big man rotation, with the veteran Josh Smith already signed to big long-term money and the even-younger Andre Drummond flashing glimmers of Dwight Howard-type potential.

Monroe in Dallas would be an intriguing fit, since offensively, Dirk Nowitzki (who presumably will re-sign with Dallas in the off-season) would be an ideal frontcourt partner--someone to stretch the floor and give him room to operate in the post, and another excellent passer to play all kinds of fun high-low games with. Defensively it would definitely be an adventure, but at least Monroe can rebound, and with Monta Ellis and Jose Calderon occupying the back-court for years to come, this team is going to have to be more about outscoring the opposition anyway. It might not lead to championships, but it would lead to a lot of fun basketball. 

Could it happen?: If Detroit decided to let him go, I think the Mavs would be a likely suitor for Monroe. But even with the odd fit, it's a little hard to see the Pistons letting a player as talented and productive as Monroe walk, so it might take a disappointing end to the '13-'14 season for it to be possible. 

Eric Bledsoe, PG

Current team: Phoenix Suns
Future team: Orlando Magic

The target of the Suns' off-season rebuilding plans, and the most prized asset on their roster for the future, Bledsoe and the Suns were nonetheless reportedly pretty far apart on contract discussions, and it seems uncertain if Bledsoe really wants to be there. That might have something to do with the presence of Goran Dragic, the once-and-future Suns point guard who overlaps at position with Bled, might technically be the more productive pro at the moment, and has several years left on his contract still. 

Meanwhile, there aren't a lot of teams left without a potential franchise point guard on their roster and with cap space to spare, but the Magic are one--unless you count Victor Oladipo as a point guard, which given his proclivity for turning the ball over, I can't really see coming to fruition. Rather, I'd like to see Oladipo paired with Bledsoe to form the league's most terrifying, physically imposing backcourt. Orlando was rumored to be trying to trade for Bledsoe last year, and with Bled would probably only be a big man or two away--easily acquired in next year's draft--from being one of the most formidable up-and-coming young teams in the league.

Could it happen?: Probably not. The Suns have gone through a lot to get Bledsoe, and even if it takes dealing Dragic at the deadline to pacify him, it's unlikely that they'll throw up their hands and say "well if he wants to walk, let him walk." The Suns tried to snag Eric Gordon in restricted free agency a couple years back and failed; now that they've actually got the bird in the hand, it's tough to see them deciding to let go. 

Gordon Hayward, SG/SF

Current team: Utah Jazz
Future team: Oklahoma City Thunder

I've been trying to get Hayward to the Thunder for years now--when it first became rumored that they were open to trading James Harden, I banged my head against the wall protesting the lack of discussion of a potential Hayward & Favors for Harden deal, which I still think made an absolutely stupid amount of sense for both teams. This summer might finally be their chance to get Hayward, though it would take some financial maneuvering--finally amnestying Kendrick Perkins for one thing, and/or maybe working on a sign and trade with the Jazz to get them back some assets in return. 

Why the Thunder for Hayward? He just gives OKC all sorts of things that they need--a creative secondary ball-handler, another running mate for Durant and Westbrook, a reliable shooter and just generally a huge offensive upgrade on either Thabo Sefolosha or (for now) Jeremy Lamb, without giving back too much on the defensive end. Plus, he just seems like an OKC kinda guy--wholesome, smiling, bad at growing credible facial hair. He and KD would have such times playing 2K14 and drinking root beer together. 

Could it happen? I wouldn't rule it out, actually. Seems like Hayward wants more than the Jazz are willing to offer, and the Thunder have the cheap assets--Lamb, Steven Adams, Reggie Jackson--to potentially make splitting with Hayward palatable for Utah. If the Thunder have one more move to make in assembling their next championship-caliber roster, this wouldn't be a bad one, and frankly, I wouldn't even be shocked if it happened before the deadline, shoring up the Thunder's roster for a finals run and plunging the Jazz deep into the lottery, which is where they probably want to be for this draft anyway.

Evan Turner, SG/SF

Current team: Philadelphia 76ers

Future team: Washington Wizards

It's tough to find a team that's an ideal landing spot for Evan Turner, since nobody seems to really know for sure what his ideal role would even be. ET's odd combination of size and skill makes him an awkward fit at just about any wing position, not quite good enough a passer to play the point, not quite good enough a shooter to play the two-guard, and not quite big or physical enough to play the three. He's got value, as you can see by his averaging over 20 points a game on over 50% shooting through four games this year, but it's just hard to see where he slots in on a good team.

My best guess is that Evan's eventual role on a contender--if he finds his way to one--would be as a sixth man, offensive anchor to a team's second unit. That would make him a solid add to the Wizards, who badly need some playmaking and scoring punch off the bench anyway, and where Evan could spell John Wall or Bradley Beal for quality minutes in each half, and then maybe even play along side them some in between games. Plus, how often do you get to have the top two picks from the same draft on the same team together?

Could it happen?: I think so. Depends on how much the stat bump he gets being the first offensive option for this lousy (and yes, after last night's brutal loss to the Warriors, we can finally call them lousy again) Sixers team ends up inflating his contract value. But regardless, it's doubtful that the Sixers will invest in bringing him back, and it's hard to find too many more teams who have any kind of available role for Evan and the money with which to get him. I'm tempted to send him to the Bucks, who made it their business this off-season to acquire as many players of Evan's slightly-above-average caliber and muddled positional fit as possible, but that just seems cruel.

Avery Bradley, PG/SG

Current team: Boston Celtics

Future team: Los Angeles Lakers

I don't know what the stats are on players going from the Celtics to the Lakers, or vice versa, but I imagine it's not a move that players make very often, for fear of having their Gatorade spiked with potentially lethal doses of hallucinogens by rabid fans upon their return visits. However, if a player was ever going to make such a move, now would be the time--when neither team is all that good, when neither fanbase is tied to too many players on their current roster, and when no one can really cares enough about either squad to get up for the rivalry anyway.

As for why Bradley would make the jump to the Lakers, I'm not yet sold that the Celtics are really determined to trade Rajon Rondo, and if they do decide to keep him and build around him for the future, he and Bradley make for a very poor spacing fit, with neither a particularly good shooter. But you know who is a pretty good shooter, and who could really use a defensive-minded backcourt partner to take some pressure off him when it comes to guarding the perimeter? The guy who'll be pretty sick of playing with 40-year-old defensive turnstile Steve Nash in L.A. by this season's end. They'll have money, and they probably won't have LeBron, so gotta sign somebody.

Could it happen? It would be pretty funny, wouldn't it? It all depends on Rondo, though--if they do decide to deal Rajon, they'll probably put an emphasis on re-signing Bradley, and maybe get him a more offensive-minded backcourt running mate in the draft or in free agency. If not, he could very easily be gone, and the Lakers are as good a destination as any. Well they were for a while, anyway.

Ed Davis, PF

Current team: Memphis Grizzlies

Future team: Philadelphia 76ers

I have them losing Evan Turner in the off-season and losing a whole lot of games in the regular season, so the 76ers will still be in full-on rebuild mode next summer. Of the players to rebuild with available from this draft class, Ed Davis could be a good Buy Low bet--Davis just can't seem to find a role in Memphis, still just half a year removed from making a whole lot of new fans in Toronto, and would probably be more useful to a team that doesn't already have Zach Randolph. The Grizzlies won't pay a ton to keep him, and during that good stretch of games North of the Border, Davis had a whole bunch of games where he looked like a star (or at least a starter) in the making.

Meanwhile, such Buy Low bets are where Sixers GM Sam Hinkie really makes his money, so you can bet he'll investigate an intriguing (though under-developed) prospect like Ed Davis and see if he can't fit into the Sixers' run-and-gun, youth-and-athleticism-oriented foundation. Davis could be that signing this summer that seems like way too much money at first, then seems like one of the off-season's biggest bargains by season's end.

Could it happen? Sure--the Sixers have cap space for days and the long-term patience for proper prospect development, while the Grizzlies want to stay under the luxury tax, and have a championship window closing far too quickly to worry about bringing along their young guys. It got the Sixers Tony Wroten in the off-season, and it wouldn't shock me if Ed Davis made it two-for-two. My dad wants the Sixers to go after Greg Monroe instead, though, and has been pushing for that longer than I've been a Hayward-to-OKC booster. So we'll just have to see which of us Hinkie ends up listening to.