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How can the Raptors upset LeBron's Cavaliers?

Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports / Action Images

When Dwyane Wade said there are teams that dream only of beating LeBron James, he was referring to franchises like the Toronto Raptors.

This entire season has built toward one inevitable meeting with James. Toronto took Cleveland to six games in last year's Eastern Conference Finals, but the eventual champions were clearly a cut above. All four wins were massive blowouts, and James was totally unfazed even when the series was tied 2-2.

"I've been a part of some very adverse situations. And I just didn't believe that this was one of them," James said before proceeding to demolish the Raptors in Game 6.

It became clear that the Raptors needed an upgrade, so they brought in Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker. Those two pieces will definitely help, but the Raptors remain heavy underdogs. If they have any hope of an upset, a few things need to go their way.

1. Lowry, DeRozan need to dominate vs. Cleveland's porous defense

Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan must be relieved that Milwaukee's swarming mob of lanky limbs is dead and gone. The Bucks' length and athleticism gave Toronto's backcourt major problems early in the first-round series.

Cleveland is an old team largely filled with slow-footed defenders who lack the energy to play anything other than conservative defense. This sets up favorably for DeRozan and Lowry, who are at their best when given space to operate off a high screen.

The Raptors will need their high-usage guards to feast. DeRozan will be checked by J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert, while Lowry will draw Kyrie Irving and Deron Williams. There isn't one consistent defender among the four and there isn't much rim protection behind them. Get buckets when the Cavs play man-to-man, quickly find the open man if a double team comes. Life should be simple for Toronto's guards.

Both DeRozan and Lowry averaged over 20 points and 47 percent shooting in last year's six-game series against Cleveland. Toronto will need more of the same.

2. Throw multiple bodies and multiple looks at LeBron

Toronto stockpiled versatile wing defenders in anticipation of the matchup with one man in mind. The quartet of DeMarre Carroll, Patrick Patterson, Norman Powell, and Tucker will each get their cracks at the King.

The Raptors need to press their numbers advantage and try to exhaust James with fresh bodies. By the same token, Casey needs to have a quick hook if someone isn't up to the task. Carroll got torched by James last playoffs, and Casey needs to consider starting Tucker if that trend continues.

Keeping James away from the rim should be the Raptors' top priority. Playing multiple defenders who can switch around the reliable rim protection from Ibaka is Toronto's best hope. But Casey should also come prepared with multiple schemes, since holding the league's smartest player in check with one strategy is simply unrealistic.

It will take an entire team to stop James, which is exactly why every immediate acquisition for the Raptors has been aimed at improving their defense. This is where depth should come in handy.

3. Pray for variance at the 3-point line

Cleveland does most of its damage from beyond the arc. Irving and James initiate the offense, draw help defenders, then trigger a series of passes that result in clean looks for their bevy of 3-point specialists.

They worked this formula to perfection against the Indiana Pacers, making a league-best 13.5 threes per game while shooting 40.3 percent as a team. The Cavs were especially adept at finding the corner shooters.

(Courtesy: NBA Stats)

Stopping the Cavaliers' long-range barrage starts with containing penetration. Cleveland puts pressure on the rim to open up shots on the perimeter. The Raptors should consider switching middle pick-and-roll action and use the combination of Tucker and Ibaka against James as much as possible.

However, there will be many moments where this just isn't possible. Cleveland has leaned on James as its smallball center around four shooters off the bench, and there simply isn't any easy solution to this. James can always screen to get a mismatch, then its on the Raptors to pick their poison. Either help at the rim and risk a three, or just let James steamroll his man in isolation.

It sounds simple, but there is no other way: the Cavaliers' shooters going cold would be the Raptors' best bet on defense. They need some luck here.

4. Stay small and leave Valanciunas on the bench

Casey faces another difficult decision with his starting lineup. He can go back to Jonas Valanciunas to match Cleveland's size, or he can remain small and fluid with Norman Powell, but jeopardize a mismatch.

Sticking with Powell might be their best bet. The Raptors could always use another finisher in transition, another slasher in the halfcourt, another ball handler, and another shooter to spread the floor.

Cleveland would naturally counter by posting up Kevin Love against a smaller defender in Powell, but getting the ball out of James' hands would be a win unto itself. Defensive rebounding would also become a concern, although the Raptors could exploit that by getting out on the fast break more effectively.

More importantly, the point to downsizing is to allow Ibaka to play center where his rim protection is sorely needed. Valanciunas can only guard one position, which forces Ibaka to the perimeter when they share the court, and Valanciunas' offensive talents haven't nearly warranted the trade off.

5. Ibaka needs to deliver as consistent 3rd option

The Raptors will also need Ibaka to be consistent on offense, which is an iffy proposition for someone who relies so heavily on his jumpshot.

Ibaka is a perfect screener for Lowry and DeRozan. The veteran big spent his entire OKC tenure spacing the floor for stars, so he's a natural when it comes to short rolling into space and finding open looks within the offense.

His ability to make open pick-and-pop jumpers will determine how much defensive pressure Cleveland throws at Toronto's backcourt. Moreover, if Valanciunas will be limited due to matchups, Ibaka will be counted upon to balance the offense with some interior scoring.

What the Raptors can't afford is the type of inconsistency Ibaka showed in the Bucks series. He shot 26.3 percent on wide-open without a defender within six feet to contest the shot, according to NBA Stats. Ibaka needs to be a massive factor on both ends of the floor for the Raptors to have any chance at an upset.

Series schedule

Cavaliers vs. Raptors Date Location Time Network
Game 1 May 1 Cleveland 7 p.m. TNT
Game 2 May 3 Cleveland 7 p.m. TNT
Game 3 May 5 Toronto 7 p.m. ESPN
Game 4 May 7 Toronto 3:30 p.m. ABC
Game 5* May 9 Cleveland TBD TNT
Game 6* May 11 Toronto TBD ESPN
Game 7* May 14 Cleveland TBD TNT

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