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Lou Williams' fantasy outlook weakens as real-world Rockets improve

Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA TODAY Sports

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Here are the fantasy implications following the alleged trade that would send Los Angeles Lakers PG/SG Lou Williams to the Houston Rockets in exchange for Corey Brewer and a draft pick:

The Rockets get richer in terms of perimeter scoring. Williams, the former Sixth Man of the Year, is having the finest campaign of his 11-year career, averaging 18.6 points and 3.2 assists in just over 24 minutes per night. Unfortunately, the trade marks the end of his run as a top-100 fantasy player.

Williams was able to freelance as the focal point of the Lakers' bench unit, a ball-stopping style that was effective when he was surrounded by plodding veterans or inexperienced youngsters, but won't be necessary in Houston's veteran-laden backcourt rotation. He'll see some playing time alongside James Harden, so he's more likely to be a safety-valve kick-out option than the star attraction in an isolation-heavy offense.

Being the final destination for Harden's kick-outs isn't a bad way to make a living. That style of scoring has helped bolster the fantasy value of Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza, all of whom have averaged more than 2.5 made 3-pointers per game. Williams' current rate of 2.1 3-pointers made should remain a great source of value in category formats, even if his playing time decreases.

And his playing time will decrease. The player he's effectively replacing in the rotation -- Brewer -- was only seeing 15.9 minutes of floor time each game. Expect Williams' minutes to drop closer to 20 per game, maximizing the efficiency of his scoring but not over-exposing the obvious weaknesses in his defensive abilities.

Williams' 30.6 percent usage rate would rank second on the current Rockets' roster, behind only Harden. With the ball in his hands less often, a drop in points and assists should follow. He could average a line approaching 12-1-2 with two-plus 3-pointers per game. Even if Williams' shooting percentages rise, it won't be enough to make him a must-own fantasy player. Value him in the 100-140 range for the rest of the season.

Patrick Beverley may see a slight drop in playing time, and all of the supporting scorers should see a slight drop in scoring, but not enough to warrant any sort of panic move. This is a trade that has a larger impact on real-world basketball than in fantasy circles.

Back in Lakerland, Nick Young should see even more opportunities as a wing scorer, assuming that he isn't moved ahead of the deadline as well. D'Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson will see more scoring opportunities but should also face tougher looks without Williams drawing focus from the defense. Overall, everyone's value in Los Angeles goes up slightly, with Russell and Clarkson maintaining their top-80-to-100 rest of season valuations.

Brewer is a non-factor in fantasy. From the Lakers' perspective, this move was about acquiring a pick, not the potential of a journeyman wing player.

(Photos courtesy: Action Images)

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