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How would the 2013 Chase be decided with the proposed 2014 format? We did the math.

With the news coming out last night of NASCAR’s reported radical change in the points system for the upcoming season (if you haven’t read it, click here), we’ve decided to apply those rules for the 2013 season and see how it’d all pan out.

According to the report, 16 teams would make the Chase, with positions first going to full-time series contenders who won a race through the first 26 races of the season. That gives us 13 drivers: Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, Jimmie Johnson, Kasey Kahne, Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards, Brian Vickers, David Ragan, Ryan Newman, Martin Truex Jr., Tony Stewart, Joey Logano and Greg Biffle. Because Brian Vickers wasn’t a full-time driver, and Tony Stewart got injured, those 2 names have been removed from the list. That now leaves us with 11 drivers, and 5 open spots.

The report states “should 16 drivers not win races, the remaining slots would be filled by the drivers highest in points.” Drivers with the highest points without a win at the end of the Richmond race were: Clint Bowyer, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon and Jamie McMurray.

Also, we’re going to omit the entire MWR spingate after Richmond, just to make things easier. So ladies and gents, welcome to your 2013 Chase field, with the proposed 2014 rules enforced:

Pos. No. Driver Team Wins
1 20 Matt Kenseth Joe Gibbs Racing 5
2 18 Kyle Busch Joe Gibbs Racing 4
3 48 Jimmie Johnson Hendrick Motorsports 4
4 5 Kasey Kahne Hendrick Motorsports 2
5 29 Kevin Harvick Richard Childress Racing 2
6 99 Carl Edwards Roush Fenway Racing 2
7 34 David Ragan Front Row Motorsports 1
8 39 Ryan Newman Stewart-Haas Racing 1
9 56 Martin Truex Jr. Michael Waltrip Racing 1
10 22 Joey Logano Penske Racing 1
11 16 Greg Biffle Roush Fenway Racing 1
12 15 Clint Bowyer Michael Waltrip Racing 0
13 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. Hendrick Motorsports 0
14 78 Kurt Busch Furniture Row Racing 0
15 24 Jeff Gordon Hendrick Motorsports 0
16 1 Jamie McMurray Earnhardt Ganassi Racing 0

So we're set. The proposed 2014 rules state "Once the field is set for the Chase and re-seeded, the four lowest in points among Chase contenders would be eliminated from title contention after the third, sixth and ninth race in the Chase."

So let's look at the first 3 races at Chicagoland, New Hampshire and Dover. Logano, Edwards, Kahne and Ragan would be eliminated from contention.

Driver CHI NH DOV TOT
Matt Kenseth 48 48 38 134
Jimmie Johnson 40 41 48 129
Kyle Busch 43 42 40 125
Jeff Gordon 39 30 41 110
Greg Biffle 29 41 35 105
Kevin Harvick 42 24 38 104
Ryan Newman 35 29 37 101
Clint Bowyer 35 28 35 98
Jamie McMurray 26 39 33 98
Kurt Busch 40 31 23 94
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10 39 43 92
Martin Truex Jr. 26 35 29 90
Joey Logano 8 31 41 80
Carl Edwards 34 35 9 78
Kasey Kahne 32 8 31 71
David Ragan 19 15 19 53

Now, the proposed rules state that points are only reset for the final race, so we're assuming that the points carry over to the next "round" of races. After Kansas, Charlotte and Talladega, here's how the results are looking. Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Newman and Truex Jr. would all be eliminated.

Driver KAN CLT TAL TOT
Jimmie Johnson 39 41 33 247
Matt Kenseth 34 42 25 230
Kevin Harvick 48 38 32 243
Jeff Gordon 41 38 31 220
Kyle Busch 11 40 40 196
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 37 30 43 214
Greg Biffle 31 28 34 194
Jamie McMurray 28 25 47 198
Clint Bowyer 30 34 35 197
Kurt Busch 42 30 27 193
Ryan Newman 9 37 35 173
Martin Truex Jr. 25 22 36 173

Next, to Round 3, featuring Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix. Only 8 drivers remain. Here are the results:

Driver MAR TX PHX TOT
Jimmie Johnson 40 48 42 377
Kevin Harvick 38 36 48 352
Matt Kenseth 44 41 21 349
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 36 42 41 339
Jeff Gordon 47 6 31 280
Kyle Busch 30 32 37 313
Greg Biffle 35 33 32 294
Jamie McMurray 34 13 27 272

McMurray, Biffle, Kyle Busch, and Jeff Gordon would now be eliminated. Which leaves us with Jimmie Johnson, Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth and Dale Earnhardt Jr. 

For the final race of the season, the proposed rule states "The four remaining contenders would enter the season finale reset with the same amount of points. The driver who earned the most points in the season finale would be the series champion." Here's how the points were dished out at the end of the race:

Driver Homestead TOT
Matt Kenseth 44 44
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 42 42
Jimmie Johnson 35 35
Kevin Harvick 35 35

Which would have made Matt Kenseth your 2013 Sprint Cup Series Champion. Of course we never accounted for bonus points for winning in the regular season, because they weren't mentioned in the new proposed rules, so there's a chance they could be done away with for this season.

So what do you think? Fan or not of the new changes?

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