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Predicting the 3 worst contracts of the MLB offseason

Gary A. Vasquez / USA TODAY Sports

Bad investments are a reality of free agency. Every year, it seems, some player who's either defective or in decline receives a gargantuan contract that leaves people scratching their heads. Remember that B.J. Upton deal? Or Edwin Jackson's four-year contract? How about the 10-year deal in which the Los Angeles Angels agreed to pay Albert Pujols $30 million for his age-41 season?

So which free agent will receive the most regrettable deal this winter? Here are three candidates:

Yoenis Cespedes, OF
Projected contract: 6 years, $128 million

Since arriving in Oakland in 2012, Cespedes has established himself as one of the game's most exciting talents, but the results over the last four seasons have been decidedly inconsistent for a player with such obvious physical gifts. Though he posted an .861 OPS (139 OPS+) as a rookie, Cespedes was just barely better than league average at the plate over the next two seasons, hitting .251/.298/.446 with a dismal 5.9 percent walk rate while chasing more pitches outside the strike zone than all but 13 qualified hitters. And, shockingly, his plate discipline got worse in 2015, when he clobbered 35 homers with a career-best .870 OPS.

Year BB% K% O-Swing % OPS
2013 6.4% 23.9% 37% .737
2014 5.4 19.8% 38.7% .751
2015 4.9% 20.9% 39.1% .870

Still, following his remarkable second-half stint with the Mets, the 30-year-old is primed for a nine-figure deal despite his very pronounced flaws at the plate. Considering how players with similar profiles have aged, that might be a big mistake. Of the dozen players who hit almost exactly like Cespedes from age 26 to 29, all but two were either below-average hitters and/or part-time players by age 33.

Ian Desmond, SS
Projected contract: 4 years, $60 million

As a shortstop with a history of not being completely useless at the plate, Desmond is going to land a hefty contract this winter, even after a brutal 2015 season. Really, though, Desmond's rough year - he posted a .583 OPS in the first half and finished the season with only 1.7 WAR - was just the culmination of a steady decline that started three years ago.

Season wRC+ K% ISO Hard-contact %
2012 128 20.7% .218 32.7%
2013 116 22.1% .173 32.3%
2014 108 28.2% .175 32.4%
2015 83 29.2% .151 28.1%

Desmond, who led all shortstops in homers and WAR from 2012-14, still has more upside than most at his position, but there's a good chance the one-time All-Star is a poor investment. Over the last two seasons, no player has made less contact than Desmond (min. 700 PA) - an alarming trend given his age and position. Since 1920, the only other qualified shortstops to strike out more than 20 percent of the time from ages 28 to 29 - Jose Hernandez and Alex Gonzalez - averaged an 81 wRC+ over the next four years of their careers. And it's not like Desmond has been making that much quality contact when he does manage to get the bat on the ball, either, as only Stephen Drew has a lower line-drive rate since the beginning of 2014.

Daniel Murphy, 2B
Projected contract: 4 years, $46 million

Any team inclined to pursue Murphy because of what he did in the first two rounds of the playoffs need only re-watch Game 4 of the World Series to appreciate what a dicey proposition it is signing the 30-year-old to a long-term deal. Even if he continues to produce at the plate, Murphy is, without question, one of the worst defensive infielders in the league, costing his team an average of one WAR per season since 2012, per Defensive Runs Saved. At second, his natural position, Murphy posted the fifth-worst conversation rate (97.3 percent) on plays deemed "routine" by Inside Edge Fielding, and finished dead last (51.7 percent) on batted balls considered likely to be turned into outs.


Source: FanGraphs

To his credit, Murphy makes a ton of contact and consistently hits for a high batting average - he's one of 10 qualified players to hit above .280 in each of the last four seasons - but, without plate discipline or much power, his offensive value isn't so considerable. Though Murphy owns a .287 average since 2012, his .326 OBP over that span is just barely above league average, a function of his high-contact profile that leads to very few walks. With only about average power, as well - his .168 ISO this season was 33 points higher than his career mark - Murphy remains a one-dimensional offensive player unlikely to be much more than a liability in the field.

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