Breaking Down the Hall of Fame Ballot: Part 1

In this four-part series, Jonah Birenbaum of theScore's MLB staff will assess all 34 candidates on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot, placing each player into one of four categories: Jokers, Maybes, PED pariahs, or Cooperstown Kings.

Jokers: Talent and accolades abound, but none of these guys will join the legends in Cooperstown or even appear on next year's ballot

Rich Aurilia
% of vote (2014): N/A
JAWS*: 17.4
AVG. JAWS (SS): 54.7

The most intoxicated voter wouldn't even consider scribbling Aurilia's name on the ballot if not for the shortstop's improbable 2001 campaign, a six-month anomaly that saw the then 29-year-old clobber 37 home runs with a .941 OPS while the leading the National League with 206 hits. Throughout a 15-year career in the majors, Aurilia actually proved to be a below-average offensive player, managing a 99 OPS+ across stops with the Giants, Reds, Padres and Mariners. Even as a shortstop - a position that's traditionally allergic to offense - Aurilia couldn't distinguish himself in his prime, as his 112 wRC+ from 1997 to 2001 paled in comparison to the offensive success enjoyed by fellow shortstops Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter and Barry Larkin.

Aaron Boone
% of vote (2014): N/A
JAWS: 14.3
AVG. JAWS (1B/3B): 55.0

It's entirely possible the BBWAA's screening committee erroneously listed Aaron Boone as a Cooperstown candidate when they really planned to extend the honor to his more deserving brother, Bret. Nevertheless, Boone remains eligible for induction despite a resume that would make Mike Lieberthal laugh -- highlights include a .263 batting average with a 94 OPS+ over parts of 12 seasons in the majors. We'll always remember that October at-bat against Tim Wakefield, though.

Tony Clark
% of vote (2014): N/A
JAWS: 14.2
AVG. JAWS (1B): 54.2

Before Clark became executive director of the Major League Baseball Players Association, the 6-foot-8, 205-pound behemoth enjoyed quite of bit of success at the plate. The towering first baseman eclipsed the 30-homer plateau four times in his career and finished his 15-year stint in the majors with a .262/.339/.485 (109 wRC+) batting line - numbers that, admittedly, seem pedestrian against the backdrop of the steroid era.

Jermaine Dye
% of vote (2014): N/A
JAWS: 21.7
AVG. JAWS (RF): 58.1

It's a testament to the era in which he played that Dye compiled 325 home runs over parts of 14 seasons in the majors and never once finished among the league's top-five in isolated power. Dye's consistent pop, however, fueled a solid career punctuated by a pair of All-Star appearances and a World Series championship in 2005, though his numbers aren't overly compelling once adjusted for both league and park effects.

Cliff Floyd
% of vote (2014): N/A
JAWS: 25.4
AVG. JAWS (LF): 53.3

Floyd's meandering 17-career year featured myriad injuries and stints with seven different teams, but the wandering outfielder always seemed to hit when healthy. From 1997 to 2005, Floyd compiled an .882 OPS while averaging 13 stolen bases per season and drawing walks in more than 10 percent of his plate appearances. Shaky defense and far too much time on the disabled list, however, prevented him from becoming a true star rather than a really good player.

Eddie Guardado
% of vote (2014): N/A
JAWS: 12.3
AVG. JAWS (RP): 34.4

Easily identified by his protruding belly and signature goatee, Guardado enjoyed four seasons of dominance - he authored a 2.84 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP while averaging 35 saves per year from 2002 to 2005 - but otherwise meandered through an undistinguished 17-year career as a late-inning left-hander. Guardado eventually retired at age 38 with a 109 ERA+ and a 4.45 FIP across stints with four teams, but the corpulent left-hander sure was durable: his 908 career appearances represents the 22nd-most in MLB history.

Troy Percival
% of vote (2014): N/A
JAWS: 16.3
AVG. JAWS (RP): 34.4

Percival may have hung around a couple seasons too many, but the goateed closer should certainly be credited for popularizing the whole "striking guys out is a good way to prevent runs" theory. Only five relievers who debuted before Percival managed a career strikeout rate higher than his 26.8 percent mark (min. 300 appearances), and the right-hander's 358 saves represent the ninth-most in history.

Jason Schmidt
% of vote (2014): N/A
JAWS: 28.4
AVG. JAWS (SP): 61.8

A short but glorious stint with the Giants defined Schmidt's legacy, as the tall right-hander was decidedly average through the first seven years of his career, managing a 98 ERA+ before arriving in San Francisco in 2001. Schmidt thrived in the Bay Area, though, compiling more WAR than all but eight starters from 2001 to 2006 while fashioning a park-adjusted fielding independent pitching 23 better than league average over that span.

*The JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score system) was developed by sabermetrician Jay Jaffe - first at Baseball Prospectus in 2004 - as a means to measure a player's Hall of Fame worthiness by comparing him to the players at his position who are already enshrined, using advanced metrics to account for the wide variations in offensive levels that have occurred throughout the game's history ... A player's JAWS is his career WAR averaged with his 7-year peak WAR (not necessarily consecutive years).